Cheddar Bay Week Fifteen: Dolphins +7.5 at Bills

Apologies for not having this up in time for the Thursday game or, if you were thinking of picking the Seahawks, you're welcome. Back to the traditional one all play, six picks this week. There are six bowl games happening tomorrow, as detailed here. Rest of the pro lines here. Standings, as ever, are here.  

Comments

  1. DK - Cleveland RebootDecember 16, 2022 at 1:30 PM

    Fresno State -3.5
    Baltimore +2.5
    New Orleans -4
    Kansas City -14
    AP - Miami +7.5

    Essay - Washington NFL -4.5 over NY Giants

    I appreciate the late posting, as I was going to be all over taking the Seahawks on Thursday. I'll go with the WFT Commanders, who are in a unique spot - coming off a bye week after previously tying the Giants. This could prove to be the biggest game in Washington in some time, as the Commanders have a Wild Card spot in sight. Washington's 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games seals it for me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. CapitalGGDecember 16, 2022 at 1:32 PM

    ---Week 15---
    AP Bills -7.5 v. Dolphins
    1. Jets +1 v. Lions
    2. Falcons +4 @ Saints
    3. Commanders -4.5 v. Giants
    4. Washington St. +3.5 v. Fresno St.
    E. Patriots -1.5 @ Raiders

    I love to bet a team that just spend the week together instead of making the back-to-back cross-country flight. Pats stayed out west after beating Arizona last weekend. The added focus and comradery, especially for a Belichick coached disciplined team, it invaluable. That they get a poorly coached, Belichick disciple team just makes it that much easier of a pick.

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  3. thatsfineDecember 16, 2022 at 11:57 PM

    Bill -7.5
    Browns -2.5

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    Replies
    1. thatsfineDecember 17, 2022 at 12:12 AM

      Florida +10.5

      Delete
    2. thatsfineDecember 18, 2022 at 1:07 AM

      Bears +9
      Jags +4.5
      Giants +4.5 Essay
      Two teams that seem to be headed different directions, two weeks ago ended a game tied 20-20. And, I don't think there is much separating them except the recency bias of the Giants getting hammered by the Eagles last week. The Giants have also lost to the Cowboys and suddenly unbeatable Lions during the past 4 weeks. I think a FG wins this game, or you see another tie. Either way Giants cover. 

      Delete
  4. BenDecember 17, 2022 at 7:17 AM

    Wazzu 3.5 over Fresno
    Dolphins 7.5 over Bills

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  5. Kitty PrydeDecember 17, 2022 at 7:38 AM

    Essay no essay : saints -4 vs falcons
    AP: Bills -7.5 vs Dolphins
    Lions -1 @ Jets
    Louisville -1 vs. Cinci Bearcats
    Ravens +2.5 @ Browns
    Texans +14 vs Chiefs

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  6. JohnPeter33December 17, 2022 at 8:37 AM

    Vikings -4.5 to Colts
    Oregon State -10.5 to Florida
    Fresno State -3.5 to Washington State
    All play Bills -7.5 to Miami
    Boise State -10.5 to North Texas
    Essay: Commanders -4.5 to Giants

    ReplyDelete
  7. JohnPeter33December 17, 2022 at 8:38 AM

    Essay: Commanders -4.5 to Giants

    This is a simple "take the team off the bye against the in-conference rival that just got their ass handed to them" pick.

    Commanders are healthy and at home.

    (oh and Chase Young is probably back)- so yeah, I think the Washington defense shows up too

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  8. Residue DogsDecember 17, 2022 at 9:05 AM

    Florida
    Uconn
    Bills
    Vikings
    Chargers
    Lions essay

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    Replies
    1. Residue DogsDecember 18, 2022 at 8:33 AM

      The greatest 6-7 team of all time heads to the meadowlands to give Dan Campbell his first taste of .500. Lions get the early xmas gift with Zach Wilson starting. That said this is going to be a tough assignment for Goff away from the comfy confines of domed Ford Field. No matter. Lions are gonna keep cooking and their opportunistic defense will get an early pick to throw Zach right off his game. Lions running game keeps thing in control and the Lions will take a 24-9 type victory home with them.

      Delete
  9. GschonbergDecember 17, 2022 at 9:14 AM

    NFL:
    AP: Bills
    Vikings (essay)
    Raiders
    Broncos

    College:
    Louisville
    SMU
    Essay: The Vikings are overrated (they aren't the 2nd best team in the NFC like their record suggests, and are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions), BUT at home against the Colts is a bounce back game. The Colts are coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys, and the shine and luster is no longer there for Jeff Saturday. This Colts team struggles to score points (only avg 16 pts per game), and even against the 24th ranked Vikings points defense, I think they continue to struggle. The Vikings are the #10 scoring offense in the league, and Cousins played well last week despite the loss. Prediction: 27-17

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  10. jmacdaddioDecember 17, 2022 at 9:26 AM

    AP: Bills -7.5

    Florida +10.5
    North Texas +10.5
    Vikings -4.5
    Jags +4.5 (Essay)
    Broncos -2.5

    I’m going Jags because I read a blurb about Trevor Lawrence and his progress, and have a case of recency bias. He’s shown flashes of his ability and thankfully no longer under the Urban Meyer regime. They’ll be a force in the next few years. They’ve scored well overall the last few weeks, and the 4.5 boost will come in handy. Dallas isn’t systematically destroying opponents (yes they had a blowout against the Colts) so I expect this game to be close.

    Good luck to all the last weekend holiday shoppers out there… I’m heading out to pickup soccer to live out my World Cup dream. One of these days the US will be a serious contender, for now let’s make up our own “football” then declare ourselves the best at it.

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  11. mattborcasDecember 17, 2022 at 9:35 AM

    EMU +3.5 over SJSU

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    Replies
    1. mattborcasDecember 18, 2022 at 9:40 AM

      Lions -1 over Jets
      Bears +9 over Eagles
      Jags +4.5 over Cowboys

      Delete
    2. mattborcasDecember 18, 2022 at 9:40 AM

      As per OXR's comment below, I had the Dolphins in the AP last night.

      Delete
    3. mattborcasDecember 19, 2022 at 1:39 PM

      Essay: Rams +7 over Packers

      I really didn't want to write an essay about Bakermania continuing, but 7 points is a lot for as bad as the Packers have been this year. So, I'll give credit where it's due: Baker's fourth quarter against the Raiders was the best thing he's done since hurting his shoulder last year, it was impossible not to root for him in that situation, and the Rams look to be a much better situation for him than the Panthers were. Last Christmas, Baker threw four interceptions in Lambeau Field, so I'm betting on some redemption tonight as he tries to stake his claim as someone's starter next year (perhaps even LA's if Stafford were to retire). He's had extra time to prepare for this game, so I'll ride the Bakes train.

      Delete
  12. Cleveland FrownsDecember 17, 2022 at 11:09 AM

    The president of the Deshaun Watson fan club is back with another essay for our hero's debut at Cleveland Browns Stadium. As predicted the officiating in last week's Bengals game was an absolute scandal. Jerome Boger's crew flipped the field on the Browns three times in the first half with some of the most atrocious calls you will ever see. Yes the Browns made mistakes too but all teams make mistakes and it is just impossible to win when the zebras are out to get you. With the Browns now more or less eliminated from playoff contention the stripes can let up too and I expect they will. Also don't really expect the Ravens to be bringing their A-game today as this is one they can afford to lose. Browns for three points.

    Will also take the Bills in the night game, and my Oregon State Beavers -10.5 in the illustrious SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl. Back with 3 more tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. Nick HarlowDecember 18, 2022 at 6:00 AM

      Jerome Boger has been killing the browns like that forever. What the duck did Cleveland do to this guy

      Delete
    2. Cleveland FrownsDecember 18, 2022 at 6:20 AM

      According to my work in the lab (NYTimes playoff predictor) this morning, wins by the Lions (-1 over Jets), Raiders (+1.5 over Pats) and Titans (+3 over Chargers) will put the Browns on easy street (with a 13% chance to make the playoffs) so those are my remaining votes for this week.

      Delete
  13. oxrDecember 17, 2022 at 1:00 PM

    Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Bills -7.5 over Dolphins, Browns -2.5 over Ravens

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  14. oxrDecember 17, 2022 at 5:05 PM

    Via text, Matt Borcas is on the Dolphins tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Nick HarlowDecember 18, 2022 at 6:06 AM

    Panthers -2.5 vs Steelers essay no essay
    Bears +9 vs eagles
    Chargers -3 vs titans
    Bengals-3.5 vs bucs

    ReplyDelete
  16. BenDecember 18, 2022 at 8:13 AM

    Wazzu (L)
    Dolphins (W)
    Browns (W)
    Jets 1 over Detroit
    Bucs 3.5 over Tampa
    Essay Saints -4 over Falcons

    This is a play backing a very good defense against a rookie making his first NFL appearance on the road in a hostile division rivalry game. As garbage as both of these teams have been, they’re both still alive for the division. Saints 23 Falcons 17

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oxrDecember 18, 2022 at 8:50 AM

      Ben just to clarify are you picking the Bengals or the Bucs here?

      Delete
    2. BenDecember 18, 2022 at 11:55 AM

      My apologies. Bucs over Bengals.

      Delete
  17. oxrDecember 18, 2022 at 9:01 AM

    Lions -1 over Jets, Patriots -1.5 over Raiders, essay Bengals -3.5 over Bucs -- #6 vs #17 in weighted DVOA, very meaningful game for the Bengals whose offense has been clicking recently, Bucs wins since October are Rams/Seahawks/Saints, and the clock just struck noon so I can't essay a 1 PM game.

    ReplyDelete

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