Cheddar Bay Week Twelve: You Don't Need Me To Tell You The All Play
After many hours of deliberation, and with all due consideration given to Akron +9.5 at Northern Illinois, we will all be picking the obvious game. Michigan +7.5 at Ohio State, noon on Saturday. In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. College lines! Pro lines! Standings!
Happy Thanksgiving!
ReplyDeleteTurkey day picks:
Lions
Giants
Vikings
Michigan +7.5
DeleteOregon -3.5
DeleteGeorgia Tech +36.5 (essay)
Going with the road dog is risky in this rivalry match-up. But this is too many points for Georgia to give against a Georgia Tech team with 2 top 25 wins. Tech is coming off a big upset of UNC and although I think Georgia wins this game easily I can see the Dawgs resting players early to avoid injury before t he LSU matchup next week. Prediction is 42-10
Giants
ReplyDeleteLions
Pats
Michigan
1 pt each, happy thanksgiving
Cowboys
ReplyDeleteMichigan
Happy thanksgiving!
Loins +9.5, Giants +10, Pats +2.5, Buckeyes -7.5, Notre Dame +5.5, BROWNS +3.5*** been a rough few weeks for the Orange & Brown, thinking they get back on track with a win at home against the Bucs on Sunday. Tampa coming back from Germany, then the holiday, then THE BIG GAME ... just seems like a lot for Tom's weary bones. Browns get a boost from the home crowd and the welling emotions of the Jacoby Brissett farewell game (finally). Also, probably won't be as easy for the refs to let the opposing O-lineman tackle Myles and Clowney at the line with the home crowd watching but I won't count on that. Needless to say I'm glad to have the hook here. Hope everyone has a great holiday!
ReplyDeleteWe agree on too much this week. After my 0-fer last week, that's a good thing, right?
DeleteHave a happy and safe Thanksgiving!
add the weather and I almost want to go POTY on browns
Delete---Week 12---
ReplyDelete1. Lions +9.5 v. Bills
2. Giants +10 @ Cowboys
3. Browns +3.5 v. Buccaneers
4. Chargers -3 @ Cardinals
5. Falcons +4 @ Commanders
AP [Essay] Ohio St. -7.5 v. Michigan
Game of the Century, Part II. Undefeated Ohio State versus an undefeated That Team Up North. Revenge spot for the Buckeyes. Both teams survived look-ahead games last week. An instand classic in the making. Both teams beat up and will be moreso after the slugfest that this will be.
So why the Buckeyes?
1) They played a better schedule and won every game by double digits.
2) Ohio State's run defense is greatly improved this year. Should match-up better against Michigan's physical front 7 than last year.
3) Blake Corum injury. No way a guy has a non-contact knee injury and doesn't have "structural damage". So it's a degree of injury and he will likely try to give it a go. But that leaves risk of further injury and pain tolerance.
4) Michigan's defense is particulary susceptible to crossing routes for big YAC. Ryan Day should be able to exploit this if his Oline keeps C.J. Stroud clean, which should happen.
So I expect this game to be close for a while as both teams throw haymakers, but OSU's ability to score should make this another double-digit win for the Buckeyes.
And when they play in the B1G Championship next week, the line will be too large and you should play the other side, especially if it's Iowa or Illinois.
GO BUCKS! BEAT BLUE!
Happy Thanksgiving!
ReplyDeleteNY Giants +10
Tennessee NFL +2.5
Tulane +1.5
Clemson -14.5
AP - OSU -7.5
Essay - Baltimore -4 over Jacksonville
I feel one of the most under the radar happenings in the NFL right now involves the Baltimore Ravens carving up a last place schedule en route to a 7-3 record. Nothing the Ravens have done this year has been overly impressive. They sport a meager a 4-5-1 ATS record and haven't had a signature win. However, they likely don't need to - as their path to the playoffs features only the Bengals as a true competitor. The Ravens will cruise against a subpar Jacksonville (3-7 ATS) squad.
Ohio State -7.5
ReplyDeleteRest to follow
AP: Ohio St (loss)
DeleteNotre Dame +5.5
Washington -1.5
Panthers +2.5
Seahawks -3.5 (Essay)
Niners -8.5
Thanks to too many post-Thanksgiving happenings, this will be my no essay week… Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
tOSU -7.5
ReplyDeleteU Washington -1.5
DeleteBears +6
DeleteTitans +2.5
Illinois -14.5
ReplyDeleteMichigan +7.5
Michigan +7.5
ReplyDeletemore to follow
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteFalcons +4
DeleteJags +4
Chargers -3
Packers +6.5
ESSAY: Browns +3.5
I think that early TD the Browns always get may be enough this projected weather and a Bucs team whose offense has struggled all year, especially with their inability to run the ball. Sure, everyone seems they can run on the Browns, but with the rain perhapsy taking out the pass game, this should not be as disgraceful as usual. Add in Jacoby showing out for a big contract, which he has earned (I mean look at some of these QBs playing around the league). Browns slop it up, but still break our spirit: Bucs 17, Browns 16
NOTE: the ESPN playoff machine is up. If you do "offensive rank" as the factor for all teams to win the remaining games.....Browns go 10-7 and make playoffs
Ohio State in the all play
ReplyDeleteRavens -4 over Jags
DeleteFalcons +4 over Commanders
Titans +2.5 over Bengals
Bears +6 over Jets
Essay: Browns +3.5 over Bucs
Now that the Browns are essentially out of the playoff race, I figure they'll pick up a meaningless win here against a fairly underwhelming Bucs team. The weather should limit the Bucs' passing attack, and Fournette's absence will limit their ground game. In what will presumably be Tom Brady's last appearance in the Factory of Sadness, Joe Woods is going to summon some 2010 Eric Mangini energy and have him seeing ghosts. When the Browns have the ball, this will resemble one of those bad-weather 2020 games (Eagles, Texans) in which Nick Chubb pretty much singlehandledly carried them to victory. Browns win this one outright.
All-Play Buckeyes, what the hell
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Buckeyes
ReplyDeletePurdue -10.5 to Indiana
DeleteTCU -9.5 (essay)
USC -4 to ND
Titans +2.5to Bengals
Eagles -6.5 to Green Bay
Essay: TCU. While the offense is getting buzz, TCU defense hasplayed well defensively, giving up 25.5 points per game. They gave up 28 points in their last game and will need to do a better job if they want to get the win.
ReplyDeleteI see them disrupting in passing lanes with their adequate linebackers, and containing any sort of effort from Hunter Dekker.
Should be a good essay pick for the win today!
Ohio State for the all play
ReplyDeleteMichigan State
ReplyDeleteIndiana
Browns +3.5 vs Bucs
ReplyDeleteCommanders -4 vs Atlanta
Ever since Taylor Heinecke took over the quarterback position, this Washington team has played with an attitude that they expect to win these games. I have not watched one second of them this year, but some guy popped up on my fyp on tictoc and was super excited for Washington when they announced Taylor was their starting quarterback moving forward, and so far he's been right. Atlanta has surprised me this year in that Mariotta is very serviceable and they play hard despite being fairly irrelevant, which is a good sign of being a well coached team. I have a brain block on the saints and falcons i don't know why i can barely name anyone on either team. I just think the Commanders roll in this one.
Hope everyone has had a peaceful week!
ReplyDeleteColts -2.5 vs. Steelers
Broncos -2.5 at Panthers (happy birthday Wilson!)
Commanders -4 vs. Falcons
Seahawks -3.5 vs Raiders - favorite NFL quote of the week - DK Metcalf on his 30k fine, “it’s the NFL, so I’m not tripping” - my 2023 mood. #unbothered
Essay: Packers +6.5 vs. Eagles
The birds are molting. Rodgers, while not the only Sagittarius QB (Wilson, Burrows) does seem to be the most Sag of them all. Cut ties with his family, sees UFOs, experiments with Ayahuscha, fawns over bold, beautiful women, and bucked against the vaccine - he’s got a couple choo-choos off the track. It’s that point in the season though - if you can’t have a good year, ruin it for others too.
Rodgers struggled to find the spotlight for years behind Favre. Can you imagine what that would do to your psyche? Be an absolute, genius rockstar, only to have a piece-of-shit oaf mosey back onto campus just before the season starts, get put on the back burner, and, oh yeah, you’re also dude-bro’s playbook tutor now. That would remove several screws faster from my head that a DeWalt. That’s not the origin story of a hero, it’s sinister.
Aaron Rodgers, the heel. Throwing to Allen Lazard, who is back today, I don’t know if the Packers will win, but I bet they keep it close.
Missed it until after the fact, but this makes 6 1-pointers and your essay -- in keeping with what we've usually done in the past, I went by the order you made them in and left off the Seahawks.
DeleteCowboys (L)
ReplyDeleteMichigan (W)
Seahawks -3.5 over Raiders
Saints 8.5 over SF
Chargers -3 over Cards
Essay: Jets -6 over Bears **POTY**
I’d probably make this play even if the hapless Zach Wilson were still at the helm for the Bears. The Jets defense is LEGIT. And Mike White looked pretty solid in spot duty last year. But none of this matters. I’m making my play of the year, for the second year in a row (!!) against Trevor Simien. (Last year Bills over Saints on Thanksgiving). Jets are still in the hunt and will be rejuvenated by a new QB. Go J-E-T-S!
Browns +3.5 over Bucs
ReplyDeleteChargers -3 over Cardinals
Jets -6 over Bears
Steelers +2.5 over Colts
Essay Ravens -4 over Jaguars -- This has bitten me before but the Ravens are just straight up better on paper and seem to be getting positive news on most of their injured players. They're also still #3 in DVOA, even if they haven't been putting teams away. Since the first couple of weeks the Jags have been losing pretty consistently and not always to particularly good opposition (Texans, Colts) and I don't give them too much credit for a win over the Raiders in their current state. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a couple of mistakes, who knows.
Or, on the other hand, maybe he puts up 18 points in the 4th quarter.
DeleteJets
ReplyDeleteCommanders
Seahawks - essay
Love the Hawks against noted failure Josh McDaniels and the Raiders. One day I'd really love to read the book on why none of Belichecks assistants know how to be successful head coaches, or for that matter, normal human beings. But for now, I'll take solace in believing that Seattle can cover 3.5 at home. Is Geno Smith better than Derek Carr? Probably! Kenneth Walker makes up for his rough day on the ground last week. He was actually in East Lansing for our senior day home loss to Indiana that cost them a bowl game. Good for him having some degree of loyalty to them despite only being there for 12 games. Not that I'm expecting him to have *negative* thoughts about his time at MSU, but he would have been well within his rights to say, you know what? The MSU I knew was a winner, I don't have time for your 5-5 asses.
Interestingly enough, ESPN analytics have the Raiders as a slight favorite. Never really looked at how those correlate to outcomes, but maybe some ML value at +175, that is pretty steep.