Cheddar Bay Week Ten: TCU +7 at Texas

Texas will mess with itself on Saturday at 7:30 EST, in one of only three matchups of ranked teams this week. (The NFL slate wasn't particularly inspiring either.) Here as always the college lines, the pro lines, and the standings; good hunting everyone.



Comments

  1. DK - Cleveland RebootNovember 11, 2022 at 7:10 AM

    NYG -6.5
    Pittsburgh NFL +2.5
    Tennessee NFL -3
    LA Chargers +7
    Tulane -2.5

    AP and Essay - TCU +7

    I find myself improbably on top of the Cheddar standings for the first time since Hue Jackson and DeShone Kizer carried me in 2017. In order to prevent a full-blown Joe Woods-esque second half collapse, I'm going to stick to the basics. Let's go back to the old reliable in TCU, who is an impressive 7-1-1 ATS, sports one of the best offenses in college football and has been one of the most resilient second half teams this year.

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  2. ChuckKozNovember 11, 2022 at 7:38 AM

    TCU +7

    NFL to follow

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  3. oxrNovember 11, 2022 at 11:13 AM

    I already know I'm going to be taking TCU and the points so might as well post it today

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  4. jmacdaddioNovember 11, 2022 at 9:45 PM

    AP: TCU +7
    JMU -7.5
    CCU -7.5

    Lions +3
    Dolphins -3.5 (Essay)
    Cowboys -5

    Week 10 which means it’s time to start planning the Black Friday strategy. Time to unpack the helmet, elbow guards, and baseball bat. Also time to get in a few practice sessions against the mannequin in my basement, but I digress..

    Other than the lack of medical care for their QB, Miami has quietly put together a decent season. Their coach is becoming more known for the right reasons, and they’re looking like a playoff contender. They’ve had solid wins including one in Chicago which is a tough team to play, while the Browns haven’t done much despite a good win against the Bengals last week. I suppose a TD spread might be enough to scare off an essay pick, but with just over a FG, let’s put 3 cheddars on it.

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  5. CapitalGGNovember 12, 2022 at 5:31 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. CapitalGGNovember 12, 2022 at 5:32 AM

    ---Week 10---
    AP Texas -7 v. TCU
    1. Tennessee -20.5 v. Missouri
    2. Texas A&M +1.5 @ Auburn
    3. Titans -3 v. Broncos
    4. Cowboys -5 v. Packers
    E. Browns +3.5 @ Dolphins

    Really?!? We're doing this again? The Browns? OK....

    Kevin Stefanski is 2-0 off the bye. Miami doesn't play defense and has literally played everyone close this year. The Browns defense has played better the past 2 weeks since the green dot appears to have moved to JJIII. Myles and Clowney are both healthy as is the secondary. Expect a close one with the Browns having a good chance to prevail.

    Unless Preifer's boys f--- it up. #firePreifer

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  7. BenNovember 12, 2022 at 6:27 AM

    Texas -7

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  8. mattborcasNovember 12, 2022 at 8:15 AM

    TCU +7 over Texas

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    1. mattborcasNovember 12, 2022 at 4:39 PM

      Essay: Seahawks +2.5 over Bucs
      Last week's last-minute comeback win over the Rams was nice, but it doesn't change the fact that Tampa's offense has been putrid this season. Over the last four games, Seattle has given up 9, 23, 13, and 21 points, respectively—and those figures might as well be Leonard Fournette's yardage totals over the last month, too. The Bucs are one dimensional, and that one dimension won't be enough to topple Tom Brady in Munich. Geno's MVP campaign will kick into high gear tomorrow morning.

      Steelers +2.5 over Saints
      Browns +3.5 over Dolphins
      Chiefs -9.5 over Jags
      Giants -6.5 over Texans

      Delete
  9. Residue DogsNovember 12, 2022 at 8:32 AM

    Illinois
    Michigan state
    Ole miss

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  10. Residue DogsNovember 12, 2022 at 8:48 AM

    Texas on the allplay

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  11. GschonbergNovember 12, 2022 at 9:10 AM

    NFL:
    Seahawks
    Lions

    College:
    Texas (AP)
    UNC
    Wash St
    Ole Miss (essay)
    Just got the feeling that Ole Miss has more to play for than Alabama right now. Bama now has 2 losses and can't get a way back into the College Playoff. This game is in Oxford and Lane wants to beat his old coach. Alabama is 1-3 ATS the last 4 games and even if they win, I don't see it being more than 10 points. When is the last time #9 was at #11 and the spread was this big. Also, the last two teams have been able to run the ball against Bama with both Tenn and LSU going over 180 rushing, and Miss is one of the best rushing offenses in the country. It will be close and I wouldn't be surprised if Lane Kiffin pulls off the outright win.

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  12. Kitty PrydeNovember 12, 2022 at 9:10 AM

    AP: TCU +7 vs. Texas
    Washington State -7.5 vs. Arizona St.

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  13. thatsfineNovember 12, 2022 at 11:17 AM

    I'll take Texas -7. TCU living dangerously too often. This week they pay.

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  14. JohnPeter33November 12, 2022 at 12:29 PM

    Bama -11.5 v Ole Miss
    Clemson -7 to 'Ville
    Bears -3 to Lions
    Seahawks +2.5
    All Play Texas -7 tp TCU

    Essay

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    1. JohnPeter33November 12, 2022 at 1:15 PM

      Essay
      Oregon -13.5 to Washington
      Rivalry game.
      Honestly, I just want to take the OVER.
      Bo Nix comes out of this as a serious Heisman contender. Niether team plays defense, even though there is supposedly NFL talent on the Oregon defense. No turnovers, lots of points. Oregon rolls up 21, with Washington maybe getting a TD in the final few minutes to keep me sweating

      Delete
  15. Cleveland FrownsNovember 12, 2022 at 3:56 PM

    I'll start with Texas -7 in the all play and Washington +13.5 over Oregon. Had no idea Michael Penix was the Huskies QB until today. What a world. Back shortly with four NFLs including vote of the week.

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    1. Cleveland FrownsNovember 12, 2022 at 4:08 PM

      Colts +6 over Raiders; Packers +5 over Cowboys; Commanders +10.5 over Eagles;

      and for the vote of the week: Pass the tartar sauce folks, Browns are frying the fish tomorrow in Miami. The boys regrouped in a big way vs. the Bengals, had a bye week to get healthy, and know they need this one tomorrow to stay in the hunt. Meanwhile Dolphins are banged up on the O-line and have to deal with Myles and Clowney and a Browns defense that looks to have figured some things out after some early fits and starts. Tua goes back on concussion watch and Browns keep it within 3.5.

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  16. Nick HarlowNovember 13, 2022 at 4:34 AM

    missed the all play.....ooops!

    Jags +9.5 vs Chiefs
    Giants -6.5 vs Texans
    Steelers +2.5 vs Saints
    Browns +3.5 vs Dolphins
    Vikings +4 vs Bills**
    Cousins is thrashing, in a good way, and dancing on planes and playing great ball, and Bills are reeling a little bit with their star qb injured. this is a good spot for the Vikings to come into town and play strong ball. Perhaps a late Diggs touchdown versus his former team turns this one but I'll take the points in an outdoor football contest in November in buffalo. I don't think the Bills will play their best football in November, but think they can turn it around in December for a super bowl run.

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  17. BenNovember 13, 2022 at 6:46 AM

    Texas (L)
    Bills -4 over Vikes
    Browns 3.5 over Fins
    Texans 6.5 over NYG
    Bears -3 over Lions

    Essay: Chargers +7 over Niners

    Don’t really have anything poignant here. That’s just a shitload of points to take along with Justin Herbert, the Chargers skill talent injuries notwithstanding. Prime time game, and I expect a close one. But my picks have been dogshit this year so expect the opposite

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  18. Kitty PrydeNovember 13, 2022 at 7:51 AM

    Bears -3 vs. Lions
    Seahawks +2.5 vs. Bucs
    Browns +3.5 at Dolphins
    ** essay** Steelers +2.5 vs. Saints
    Love a Steelers home dog opportunity! This week is the Return of Watt. Love that for them. Don’t love the Pickett ratio of 2 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, but maybe the bleeding has stopped. Kamala has only been in the end zone once so far this year…they need to figure this out. Not sure this week will be that week. They’ll be out of their precious controlled dome environment. Temperature-wise, the game will start feeling like 37 degrees and will end feeling like 30 degrees. The Saints aren’t gonna like that. Wind gusts up to 20 mph - I figure this can only help Pickett. Adverse conditions often cultivate focus.
    The real kicker here is the Saints are starting Andy Dalton. The Steelers and Dalton, well, they’ve met. Dalton is only good for a few games in each division before the code is cracked and the Steelers are the OGs of having Dalton’s number and calling it until he cries mercy.

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  19. Residue DogsNovember 13, 2022 at 8:49 AM

    Bears
    Chargers - essay

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    1. Residue DogsNovember 13, 2022 at 4:11 PM

      Well every pick going belly up this weekend but i feel good about the Chargers keeping it within 6 tonight. I don't have a reason for this, except that the road dogs have been eating all weekend. Purdue upset win, rutgers backdoor cover, lions getting campbell his first road win ever. Chargers are coming off a road win so i like them to carry things through and repeat. Part of it also comes from the fact that i don't really respect the 49ers. Only wins are seahawks pre-kenneth walker, panthers, and rams twice. Boring.

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  20. thatsfineNovember 13, 2022 at 9:41 AM

    Texans +6.5
    Browns + 3.5
    Broncos +3

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    1. thatsfineNovember 13, 2022 at 11:45 AM

      49ers -7
      Colts +6 essay

      Let's essay the Colts, whose shitshow is nothing compared to what's potentially brewing in Las Vegas and the consistent drama that follows Josh McDaniels. That's saying a lot, firing Frank Reich and handing the keys to an NFL team to a guy who hasn't coached at any level. I think a QB quality coach is calling the plays, which sounds about right for this team. Feels like a FG separates the winner from the loser here.

      Delete
  21. oxrNovember 13, 2022 at 9:54 AM

    Early games: Chiefs -9.5 over Jags
    Saints -2.5 over Steelers

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  22. oxrNovember 13, 2022 at 10:48 AM

    Later games: Cardinals +3 over Rams
    Chargers +7 over 49ers

    Essay Cowboys -5 over Packers -- Sure, it's Green Bay at home, but Dallas has the #1 defense by DVOA and the Packers offense looks fundamentally broken. I don't think Elliott being injured is necessarily a bad thing for the Cowboys, and I like the opportunity to give less than a TD here.

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