Cheddar Bay Week Nine: Tennessee +8.5 at Georgia
Running a little late this week and apologies for that, but it's an easy All-Play call: 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, obvious CFP implications. Monday night's Browns performance capped off two distinct Lobsterfests from Frowns and Matt Borcas, which marks the first multi-Lobster week this year or last. Here are the pro lines, the college lines, and the standings.
So gross, but, Texans +14
ReplyDeleteNice pick!
DeleteSeattle +2
ReplyDeleteNew England -5.5
Tulane -7.5
TCU -9.5
AP - Tennessee +8.5
Essay - Washington NFL +3.5
Taking a leap here with the Washington Football Team Commanders - soon to be owned by Jeff Bezos and likely operated via drone. The Commanders have quietly won three in a row and sport a solid ATS record. The Vikings - who have some serious 2020 Browns vibes - are due for a stumble on the road. Their only loss this year came on the road against the Eagles and they've played some games that have been closer than they should have.
AP:Tennessee +8.5
ReplyDeleteTulane -7.5
Auburn +12.5 (essay)
Louisville -7.5
Vikings -3.5
Falcons +3
Why doesn’t anyone like Auburn anymore? Do they stink resulting from normal ebb and flow of programs, and now is a stink cycle? Not long ago they were cranking out top 5 NFL draft picks, now they’re getting nearly two touchdowns against Mississippi State. They’ve been able to score points and generate offense this year. 12.5 is a good spot for a team that can move the ball, so let’s go Tigers.
Illinois -17.5 vs MSU***
ReplyDeleteIllinois is a freaking buzzsaw right now and Michigan State is lucky to be playing a game this weekend. So fine I'll take a hearty 3 score handicap as it's hard to see many scenarios where this game is close. MSU's athletic department has been dealing out suspensions and having themselves a week after the post game fighting in Ann Arbor last weekend. Facing backups and a bunch of people where their minds have been elsewhere this week, sometimes can go either way from a motivation, preparation standpoint, but I don't see how any of this plays into MSU's favor, so I think the safe bet is Illinois puts on another workmen like effort relying on a great defense, running game, and very competent quarterback play.
Georgia -8.5 vs Tennessee**AP
Ohio st -38.5 vs Northwestern
NC State +4.5 vs Wake Forest
Dolphins -5 vs Bears
Chargers -3 vs Falcons
Georgia -8.5
ReplyDeleteLiberty +13.5
ReplyDeleteAP: Georgia -8.5
UNC -7.5
Bengals -7.5
DeleteRams + 3
Chiefs -12.5 (essay)
Healthy Chiefs at home vs a hurt Tannehill or rookie Willis equals a blowout win for the Chiefs. The Titans are worse then their record of 5-2. They rank bottom 10 in most pass defense metrics and top 10 in rush defense metrics which is bad facing an Andy Reid offense with Mahomes. My prediction is 34-14.
---Week 9---
ReplyDeleteAP Tennessee +8.5 @ Georgia
1. Lions +3.5 v. Packers
2. Notre Dame +3.5 v. Clemson
3. Kentucky -1.5 @ Missouri
4. Arkansas -13.5 v. Liberty
E. Commanders +3.5 v. Vikings
Taylor Heinicke is doing that thing again for the Commandos. Seasons spent, new number 1 QB is injured or ineffective and ol' Taylor with his pop-gun arm have the boys playing decent and at times exciting football. On the other side, you have the Minnesota Vikings. A team that plays consistently down to the level of their opponent. I expect a competitive game here likley decided by 3 or less and maybe even a Commandos win. So in this case, let's put those Cheddar points on Ol' D.C.
Memphis
ReplyDeleteTennessee
ReplyDeletePurdue
LSU
Let me also jump in on Florida with A&Ms entire team stuck in the toilet
ReplyDeleteAP: Tennessee +8.5
ReplyDeletewell shit, didn't post for morning games but have 4 games left.....
DeleteRams +3
Seattle +2
Ravens -2.5
ESSAY:
Chiefs -12.5
Andy Reid off a bye is the essay. But let me add filler to meet the requirements: If it's Willis, he is awful. If it is Tannehill it's Tannehill not 100%. Chiefs just spanked 49ers prior to bye, which is a lot more than this. But also not an apathy spot for Chiefs, cause mild rivalry status in recent years. And Bills spanked Titans in PT, so Chiefs gonna want to keep up with the Jones
AP: Tennessee +8.5 @ Georgia
ReplyDeleteClemson -3.5 at Notre Dame - y’all, this weather is bananas, b-a-n-a-n-a-s
ReplyDeleteK-State +2.5 vs. Texas
All play: Georgia -8.5 to Tennessee
ReplyDeleteBama - 13.5 to LSU (essay)
Clemson -3.5 to Notre Dame
UCLA - 10.5 to Arizona State
Seahawks +2 to Cardinals
Ravens -2.5 to Saints
Tennessee +8.5 over Georgia
ReplyDeleteClemson -3.5 over ND
Titans +12.5 over Chiefs
DeletePackers -3.5 over Lions
Raiders -1.5 over Jaguars
Essay: Ravens -2.5 over Saints
As much as I want to talk myself into the Browns making a second-half run to claim the AFC North, one major obstacle stands in the way: the Ravens' incredibly weak second-half schedule. I mean, look at their remaining non-divisional opponents: Saints, Panthers, Jags, Broncos, Falcons. They could easily finish 12-5. And I think that will become especially clear after they dominate the Saints on Monday night. The Ravens have had extra time to prepare for this one, and they should have little trouble dispatching an inferior opponent like the Saints.
Essay: Alabama -13.5 to LSU. Sorry but LSU is not one of the ten best teams in the country. I can't find any sane college football anaylst taking Bama, so I am going out on a limb here and will say that Bryce Young will handle the 'home field' of LSU just fine, and the Bama defense will reek havoc in the backfield as LSU has to throw the ball since they will be playing from behind. Lots of sacks and losses for yards in the backfield leading to long 3rd downs that they just can't convert. #rolltide
ReplyDeleteFresh off a Lobsterfest, aiming to achieve the rare back to back Lobstravaganza this week, putting the bulk of my biscuits on the Life Champions of the University of Tennessee to keep it within 8 and a half today in Georgia. This is mostly a pro-Haslams pick, in support of the support (whatever their motivations behind it) that they’ve given to Deshaun Watson against, what is to me, an extremely transparent, retaliatory, and deplorable smear campaign against a young black quarterback with unprecedented star power for a young black quarterback who used his voice in a way that threatened the balance of power between NFL players and the plantation owners. For more on this see www dot Cleveland frowns dot com. Also it just seems the Vols are due, if not in any authentic or natural sense then in the sense that it’s in Football on Television Industrial Complex’s financial interest for them to not be a laughingstock all the time.
ReplyDeleteI’ll also go with LSU +13.5 (to Bama), Texas -2.5 (to KSU), Notre Dame -3.5 (to Clemson), and Rutgers +25.5 (to Michigan), and will choose an NFL vote tomorrow. Hope everyone is having and continues to have a most blessed weekend.
Will go with the Aints tonight in MNF.
DeleteAP Tennessee and the points
ReplyDeleteKansas State +2.5
ReplyDeleteEssay: Chargers -3 at ATL
ReplyDeleteAustin Ekeler, the Chargers starting RB, in 2019 “was the sixth player ever, and the first since Herschel Walker in 1986, to average over 10 yards per carry and reception in a 100/100 game, it was only the fourth 100/100 game of the decade.”
He made mincemeat of the falcons two years ago, and I think he’d like to play that back. He’s a running back with a chip on his shoulder after getting overlooked by D1 schools, not to mention the decade of enduring an abusive stepfather.
He streams his workouts on Twitch, usually reserved for watching other people play video games. This is his game. He’s vegan. He grew up on a farm. He was the captain of his football team for all four years.
Raiders -1.5 at Jaguars
Jets +12.5 vs. Bills
Texans (W)
ReplyDeleteUGA (W)
Kansas St (L)
Panthers 7.5 over Cincy
Commanders 3.5 over Vikings
Essay: Raiders -1.5 over Jaguars
Second straight week my essay attacks the hapless Jaguars. Coming back from their second home (London) to their actual home in Jacksonville, the Jags are reeling. No bye after the London trip makes for a very tough week. Meanwhile, the Raiders coming off an embarrassing loss, their first such loss of the year after some hard luck defeats. Davante Adams is back healthy, and I like the Raidahs to cover here.
Patriots -5.5 over Colts
ReplyDeleteChargers -3 over Falcons
Raiders -1.5 over Jaguars
Seahawks +2 over Cardinals
Essay Ravens -2.5 over Saints -- If we treat last week's Saints/Raiders blowout as a non-predictive event (also the rationale behind the Raiders pick above) this line starts to look extremely generous. Andy Dalton has been putting up points somehow but this is still the same team that lost to the Vikings and Bucs at home. Meanwhile Baltimore just got Roquan Smith and are currently the #2 offense by DVOA. Less than a FG is way too inviting.
Vikings
ReplyDeleteRavens -- essay
Ravens are a hard team to figure out because as has been shown, Lamar Jackson can single-handedly win games, or he can leave 21 points on the field by inexplicably missing open receivers. I would not be too excited about giving him a massive contract, particularly if I were John Harbaugh. The Ravens and Harbaugh have enough earned trust in the bank to survive that with fans. While I don't know if there are any QBs in the upcoming draft that can give you what Jackson does at his best, when you average that out with Jackson at his worst, I think you can get that in the aggregate with one of several draft-eligible second tier QB prospects, like Jayden Daniels and Hendon Hooker.
DeleteAll that being said, I think we're getting good Lamar today, and I don't respect the Saints.
Cards -2
ReplyDeleteRams +3
Titans +12.5
Delete
DeleteSaints essay +2.5
I'm surprised to see that the Saints have the 3rd ranked offense via total yards this year. Defense ranked 11th in total yards. Obviously that's not a direct formula for success as the 3-5 record indicates. Add on the fact that Andy Dalton is 6-19 as a prime time starter in his career and this looks pretty bleak. NO is on the upswing for at least a week, blanking the Raiders last week. Can't figure out why the Ravens are only laying 2.5, now down to 1.5. So, here I am essaying this game because I couldn't come up with anything else. Might as well take the contrarian play with Saints +2.5 for whatever damn reason.