Cheddar Bay Week Six: Bills -2.5 at Chiefs
This week's All-Play is a rematch of last year's divisional round classic and plausibly a preview of this year's AFC Championship Game. 4:25 EST on Sunday. As usual, here are the college lines, the pro lines, and the standings.
San Jose St -8.5 (at Fresno)
ReplyDeleteJets +7.5 (at Packers)
Bengals -1.5 (at Saints)
Eagles -6 (vs Cowboys)
AP: Bills -2.5
Essay: Panthers +10.5 (at Rams)
There is nothing to justify the Rams laying this many points, even against a 3rd string QB, because the Rams can't score points, Stafford is now trash, and the rest of the team is half checked out. And lets not even overreact to the fact they won the SB last year, as they were the #4 seed and just got hot and favorable matchups. As far as the Panthers, they now have a new coach to play for and by all accounts everyone hated Rhule. Then there are some trends out there where teams are 15-17 straight up in the last 20 years when playing for the new coach midseason....that's pretty good considering those teams all come off losses sucked so bad midseason to get their coach fired. Panthers 17, Rams 16.
Bengals -1.5
ReplyDeleteVikings -3.5
Atlanta +5.5
Georgia -38.5
AP - Buffalo -2.5
Essay - Clemson -3.5
I'll be attending my first live Browns game in a decade, so I'm tempted to run with Belichick and the Patriots smashing Andrew Berry's carefully curated defense. However, I don't like to mix my reality Browns disappointments with my reality football ones. So, I'll take Clemson's run game against FSU's weak run defense in a decision I may regret.
bring home a winner!!!
DeleteLOL!
DeleteTennessee +7.5 vs Alabama
ReplyDeleteBills -2.5 vs Chiefs***all play
Bengals -1.5 vs saints
Browns -2.5 vs Pats
Ravens -5.5 vs Giants
Cards -2.5 vs Seahawks**essay play
We haven't had a good Kyler Murray game yet this year and this feels like the right spot for it. There's a new call of duty video game out soon and Murray's gotta be licking his chops to play it. Kyler loves to play video games so much that the Cards put a study clause in his contract according to one article I just read. Well hopefully he figures out his life balance at this point and can either enjoy the game in his free time or has learned how to abstain from it during the football season. Either way Kyle will be pwning his opponents this weekend on and off the field!!
Bama -7.5
ReplyDeleteMinnesota -6.5 vs. Illini
ReplyDeleteOle Miss -14.5 vs. Auburn
Ohio -1.5 vs. Western Michigan
Ole miss -14.5
ReplyDeleteSyracuse -3.5
UNC -7 essay
Feels like I'm a UNC fan this week with picking the Tarheels to cover and NC St to lose. Duke is improved from the 33pt drubbing last year to their rivals but still far behind to North Carolina as far as talent. Maye already had 21 TDs this season and the UNC pass game will be prolific in this game as well. Duke will keep it close in the 1st half of this rivalry game but the Tarheels will pull away late.
Bengals -1.5
DeletePackers -7
Chiefs +2.5 (AP)
Hey how about that POTY win last week for Old Frowner! Anyway, on to Buffalo.
ReplyDeleteI'll take State Penn and the 7 points for BIG NOON SATURDAY.
Also will have The Life Champions of Tennessee plus 7.5 for Big 3:30 Saturday.
Finally for my essay I will have the Fighting Irish minus the 17 over Stanford as a sacrifice to the skies for one of my best pals whose best pal went to Notre Dame law school with him and recently passed away very prematurely and tragically and whose friends and family will be in the stadium in South Bend tonight having traveled from far and wide to remember and celebrate and shake down the echoes. Agnes and I are in Toledo for a wedding this weekend and like to think this is all part of the pull in that direction. Also this wedding is at 1 with the reception at 5. Shout to some of our greatest Americans who have fashioned their entire personality from being mad at people who get married while college football games are on 👆🙏
Will also vote Browns and Chiefs tomorrow. Still need to figure out the last one.
Go Irish, Mendoza forever, go Guardos, and a blessed weekend to all.
Broncos for my last vote.
DeletePenn State +7 over Michigan
ReplyDeleteAlabama -7.5 over Tennessee
Patriots +2.5 over Browns
Dolphins +3.5 over Vikings
Jaguars +1.5 over Colts
Essay: Chiefs +2.5 over Bills
The Chiefs as home underdogs? That's an essay-worthy bet any day of the week. As Monday's game against the Raiders showed, the Mahomes-Kelce connection is as strong as ever, and losing Tyreek Hill hasn't slowed down KC's offense one bit. I don't have anything negative to say about the Bills, but until they prove otherwise, the AFC runs through Arrowhead. Gimme the Chiefs and the points.
Carry over my Marshall L from Wednesday
ReplyDeleteMSU +7.5 over Wisconsin - essay
Nebraska +14 over Purdue
Giants +5.5 over Ravens
Vikings -3.5 over Dolphins
Bills -2.5 over Chiefs - all-play
Taking MSU with the essay in the mother of all Alamo games here. If there was ever a time for MSU to put their foot in the ground, this has to be the game, and so I have faith in Mel Tucker to circle the wagons.
Wisconsin isn't good and is playing their 2nd game under a new coach. While this is not his first road game, I know from experience that playing at Ryan Field is like playing at the JV field, not a hostile environment. This is homecoming for MSU and the fans will be fired up to get something going to salvage the season.
Wisconsin is also a good matchup for the MSU defense if there ever was one. Graham Mertz is easy to pressure and will be running the most basic of pass schemes, limiting chances to exploit busted coverages. Their running game is nothing special, so MSU should be able to drastically simplify their defense and do reasonably well playing straight up. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin isn't great defensively and MSU should find an easier time executing when it is not under pressure to score every drive.
This is probably colored by a heavy dose of optimism, but I have watched Mel Tucker be a good coach with my own two eyes. Wisconsin being a 7.5 point road favorite is way too many points.
AP: Bills -2.5
ReplyDeleteUConn +9
NC State +3.5
Louisiana Tech +6.5
Giants +5.5 (Essay)
Jags +1.5
Time for an annual obligatory essay pick on a team where I have some rooting interest. The New York Football Giants are somehow 4-1, despite on paper having a terrible team. I was expecting another season of Daniel Jones running for his life and the “give the ball to Saquon Barkley” strategy leading to injury. They’re playing well and are always tough at home. The NY teams for the past few years have been under the radar which I’m hoping translates into a point or two advantage for degenerates (present company excluded). Giants and Jets fans are loyal of course, and for a while the Jets had a crazy fan base going strong. I think Jets fans finally grew up and started paying mortgages, which means you don’t have time to play flaming beer pong in a parking lot on a fall Sunday. 5 and a half is a good margin to cover here.
---Week 6---
ReplyDeleteAP Chiefs +2.5 v. Bills
1. Clemson -3.5 v. Florida St.
2. 49ers -5.5 @ Falcons
3. Jets +7.5 @ Packers
4. North Carolina -7 @ Duke
E. Panthers +10.5 @ Rams
Dead coach bounce alert! Teams typically get a 1 week performance boost just by having a new voice in the locker room. This Panthers team seems like a great candidate for this. Rhule had lost the room. Players were questioning play-calling and the QB publicly. And the Rams have been not good. Feels like a close game so I'll take double-digit points.
*waving from the bottom of the standings*
ReplyDeletetime to start building
USC +3.5 to Utah
Buccs -8 to Steelers
Bengals -1.5 to the Saints
Giants +5.5 to Ravens
All play: Chiefs +2.5 to the Bills
Essay: USC +3.5 to Utah
Here is my essay:
First season Lincoln Riley is going well.
I am going to this game with USC friends, so I am cheering for them.
Everyone is saying that USC has yet to be tested, which is true, but I have been umimpressed with Utah lately. I think they regress back to the season's that weren't "2021" so they get a little shell shock early- down 14 to 17, and then make a game of it late. USC wins or loses by a field goal.
Eagles -6 to Cowboys
making sure that last pick
ReplyDeleteEagles -6 is seen (it's tucked away under the essay)
Nebraska +14
ReplyDeleteTCU -4
USC +3.5 over Utah
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
ReplyDeleteBengals -1.5 over Saints
Jaguars +1.5 over Colts
Seahawks +2.5 over Cardinals
Essay Ravens -5.5 over Giants -- essay skip week as I will be spending the morning driving back from Niagara Falls.
Alabama (L)
ReplyDeleteBucs -8
Panthers 10.5
Giants 5.5
Bills -2.5
Essay: Cardinals -2.5
Tough week. This is a bet on a good QB against a bad defense. Kyler has played very well this year, and the Seahawks have not (on D). Meanwhile, after a week one thrashing versus KC, the Cards d has played pretty well. Under the FG number I’m comfortable taking the Cards laying the points on the road.
AP: Bills -2.5 at Chiefs
ReplyDeleteSteelers +8 vs. Buccs
Essay: Eagles -6 vs. Cowboys
I lobstersterfested, then I lobsterited. Would seem I exist in the extremes - so be it. I adopted the Cowboys briefly in the early 90s when my adolescent self abruptly found myself without a team. With little to go on, I opted for Dallas because I liked cheerleaders and blue/silver stars is simple but effective branding. If there were something I could sacrifice to never hear the term “America’s Team” ever again, there would be some consideration to be done. Thankfully (?) the Browns “returned” and I’ve never cheered for Dallas since. I like Romo’s calling. I also liked when they had the fire trail graphic on hockey pucks. I’m unreliable. Happy Last Quarter Moon in Cancer tomorrow, y’all. Go Birds!
Bengals -2.5
ReplyDeleteBengals line is apparently -1.5. Sounds good.
DeleteChiefs +2.5
Cowboys +6
Cards -2.5 - essay
Going to stick with Cards again this week for my essay. Feels like they've underperformed but losses to the Chiefs, Eagles, and Rams are nothing to be embarrassed about. Seattle has overperformed, especially Geno Smith having the best passer rating in the league and a top-10 QBR. He is going to regress to the mean. Seahawks can't stop the run, they're going to get gashed by Murray this week.