Cheddar Bay Week Seven: UCLA +6 at Oregon
Back to college this week: West Coast All-Play at 3:30 EST Saturday, #9 vs #10, Chip Kelly homecoming and future intraconference matchup once the Big 10 goes to 32 teams. Here as always the college lines, the pro lines, and the standings.
Put me down for Cuse, Mississippi State, and UCLA with all their points.
ReplyDeleteGreen Bay -5.5
ReplyDeleteAtlanta +6
Tulane -7
Oklahoma State +6.5
AP - UCLA +6
Essay - Jacksonville -3
Taking a bit of a leap here this week with the Jags, who are coming off a loss to the Colts. Maybe its a justification, but I found a fun stat: the Jags are 4-1 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. I'll combine this with a Giants team overdue for a slip-up playing in a stadium where generally weird things occur.
AP: UCLA +6
ReplyDeleteArmy -6.5 (Essay)
Texas A&M +3
UTEP +4
Commanders +5.5
Steelers +7
So far it’s a tight Cheddar reality season. I usually don’t take the service academies as an essay. As this season is all about crashing through barriers, it’s time to live a little. On paper Army has been producing more offensively and is stingier on defense. They’re competitive against decent opponents who have access to larger recruiting pools. UL Monroe is losing to schools of a slightly lower tier than the caliber of opponent Army is beating or remaining competitive with. It’s worth three biscuits here.
Oregon -6
ReplyDeleteOklahoma State 6.5
Oregon -6, Texas -6.5, and Cuse +13.5 today,
ReplyDeleteFalcons +6, Seahawks +6 tomorrow,
and the Vote of the week is the Browns +6.5.
Yes there are some good reasons to think that yet another Browns season is about to go into the toilet, including that Belichick might have quite effectively exposed the limitations of this Brissett-led offense last week. That said, last week's was really the first "bad" game this team has played all season and even then they were a 2-point conversion away from making it a one-score game with 6 minutes left. The Jets and the Falcons don't look like they're so bad this season either. I think it's reasonable enough to chalk last week up to one of those games, knowing that these next two were always the ones they really had to win. 6.5 is an awfully big line for this spot. Browns go all out tomorrow and at least get the cover if not the win.
UCLA +6 vs. Oregon
ReplyDeleteLSU -2 vs. Ole Miss. looks like a GORGEOUS Homecoming for the Tigers!
ReplyDelete---Week 7---
ReplyDeleteAP Oregon -6 v. UCLA
1. Maryland -13.5 v. Northwestern
2. Dolphins -7 v. Steelers
3. Jets +0.5 @ Broncos
4. Lions +7 @ Cowboys
E. Colts +2.5 @ Titans POTY!!
3 weeks ago, the Colts out-played the Titans at home and somehow managed to walk out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a tally in the loss column. So 3 weeks later, the Colts are taking the better team on the road, with extra motivation from the previous loss, and getting almost a field goal. A division match-up of teams that know each other well should make for at least a close game, so let's call this what it is... PLAY OF THE YEAR!
Emotional hedge All-Play of UCLA and the points
ReplyDeleteFor the all play I'll take one of the local teams.
ReplyDeleteOregon -6
Colorado + 23.5 - essay
DeleteExciting times to be a Beavs fan. The team is good, without being exceptional anything in particular. It managed to get out to a 5-2 record and are talking about a bowl game. The Beavs haven't been favored by this much in any game in at least 5 years. Maybe 10 years. Nobody knows for sure. All my neighbors know is they're not used to being in this position, laying this many points. I think they'll respond and win the game, but Colorado finally won a game last week and aren't going to lose by 24 points.
UCLA +6 vs Oregon
ReplyDeleteUCLA +6 over Oregon
ReplyDeleteGiants +3 over Jags
DeleteTitans -2.5 over Colts
Falcons +6 over Bengals
Chiefs -2.5 over 49ers
Essay: Jets +0.5 over Broncos
If you thought Nate "Dogg" Hackett's Broncos offense looked grisly with Russell Wilson, wait till you see it with Brett Rypien. It won't be pretty, unless you're Sauce Gardner's DROY campaign manager. Interestingly, Rypien's lone career start—in which he threw two touchdowns and three interceptions—came in a 2020 win over the Jets, so Saleh's D (Quinnen Williams in particular) will surely be out for revenge. And while I'm not sold on Zach Wilson, he'll put up the 17 points required to beat the Broncos. Jets roll to a comfortable victory in this one.
Missed the AP due to travel.
ReplyDeletePenn St -5.5
Bama -21.5
Tampa -10.5 (essay)
Delete49ers +2.5
Bengals -6
Panthers are so bad that they can't possibly stay close to TB12 and the Tampa Bay Bucs right? 3rd string QB, no CMC, mediocre defense that have given 30 points on avg the last two weeks. I don't see Carolina scoring over 7 points in this game against a good Tampa Bay defense. Game prediction is 27-6 in this NGC South matchup.
Bama -21.5
ReplyDeleteWashington -.7.5 *essay*
With Washington's offense, I have no idea why they aren't favored by more- so you need to beat them in a shoot out- and Cal is NOT going to do that.
While the Huskies have a stinky defense and can't stop the anything inside the 'tackle box'- Cal is NOT going to be the team to expose that.
I think Washington wins by 13 or more.
Buccs -10.5 to Panthers
DeleteCommanders +5.5
Jets +.5
missed the AP
Browns +6.5
ReplyDeleteBroncos -0.5
Seahawks +6
Steelers +7
Oregon (W)
ReplyDeleteOk State (W)
Broncos
Texans
Colts
Lions — essay
This is my no essay week, baby sister got married this weekend and I’m nursing a nasty hangover. Cheers!
Raiders -7 vs Texans
ReplyDeleteClowns +6.5 vs Ravens
Pats -8 vs Bears
Steelers +7 vs Dolphins
Jags -3 vs Giants***
Ok I'll ride T-Lawrence and the young and maybe not wholly terrible Jaguars against the G-men who are not as good as their record indicates. Is the Giants defense really good or something or what I am missing? Maybe the Giants do have something going on. I can see how Judge is a good coach, saquon is clearly pretty good, and Jones is serviceable to good. It's cool that he's buddies with the manning's or something. But in this game, on this day, I think Trevor outplays the crap Daniel in the match, and the Jags win this one with a cover!
Essay: 49ers +2.5 vs. Chiefs
ReplyDeleteThey did it, Jimmy. San Francisco went and got the running back that I’ve only ever heard discussed in the context of Fantasy Football drafts. The niners activated Dontae Johnson, who will intercept Patty twice. A clear 60 degree day in the bay, exciting new running back with the offensive he deserves. I’m excited for them! It must be nice to have hope. In combination with Deebo Samuels, the 49ers now have 50% of all NFLers who have 1,000 receiving yards and five rushing touchdowns in one season. It’s a stretch to create a small, niche group, but it’s not nothing. I’m just trying to picture the karmic release of moving from playing with Baker Mayfield, hot headed Aries, (or PJ Walker? a Pisces space cadet,) to Jimmy G. a bonified badass, with a four planet Stellium in Scorpio. His Sun and Mars conjunct in that beautifully mysterious and fierce sign. Christian’s Mercury in and Mars in Taurus does sit opposite Jimmy’s Mercury, which could indicate some communication difficulties. However, we are amid a major Taurus-Scorpio eclipse season and these are the big changes that release energetic detritus and takes to our next levels. Home crowd shows up for McCaffrey, and he puts on a show for them. Gratitude is the cure.
Broncos -.5 vs Jets
ReplyDeleteDolphins -7 vs. Steelers
Bengals -6 vs. Falcons
Picks from ChuckKoz via email:
ReplyDeleteAP: UCLA (loss)
Giants +3
Titans -2.5
Dolphins -7
Pats -8
Essay: Broncos -0.5
Broncos have an elite defense playing Zach Wilson on the road, I’ll take the Broncos. The public money is all over the Jets, I’ll take the Broncos there. Now Russ Wilson is out, so this dumbass Broncos coach may actually dial back some of their passing and make for a better, more efficient offense. Then bring all these young Jets into Denver, after playing their asses off in Green Bay: I see the altitude bringing them back down to earth. Broncos 17, Jets 9
NFL picks:
ReplyDeleteLions +7
Jets +0.5 Essay skip
Seahawks +6
Falcons +6 over Bengals
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +6 over Chargers
Dolphins -7 over Steelers
Titans -2.5 over Colts
Essay Patriots -8 over Bears — I hate laying this many points but let’s look at the contestants here. For two weeks in a row the Patriots really seem to have put the pieces together against flawed/undisciplined/Browns opposition while starting an unheralded 4th round rookie, and now they’re at home getting their nominal starter back. Meanwhile the Bears have done nothing but play (and mostly lose) close games against similarly flawed/undisciplined teams. New England has the #7 defense by DVOA at the moment and can easily give Justin Fields an unpleasant Monday night. It cannot be denied that the Patriots do not generally do what I tell them, so they will probably just win by 7, but I am on tilt from repeatedly picking against the Giants so this’ll have to do.