Cheddar Bay Week Five: Bengals +3 at Ravens
An exciting Sunday night All-Play matchup between the AFC North teams that did not manage to lose to the Jets. College lines! Pro lines! Standings!
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
Not sure what I'm essaying yet but the picks:
ReplyDeleteNebraska +3 at Rutgers
Kansas +7 against TCU
UCLA +4.5 against Utah
Jets +3.5 against Dolphins
Rams -4.5 against Cowboys
Ravens -3 against Bengals
Misread the Nebraska line, should be -3, but i'm still taking the pick.
DeleteEssay is on the Ravens, who are getting the home pick 'em 3 against the Bengals. Both teams have been up and down but I think the Ravens are the better team and should be able to win by a solid 6. Lamar is playing at a transcendent level, and the Ravens have only a 3 point loss against probably the best team in football (the Bills) and that inexplicable collapse against Miami. I think they're a much more solid team than the Bengals who have just ironed out a few kinks. Bengals haven't put points on the board, their loss to the Steelers looks really bad, and they are struggling mightily to get a running game going. I might buy a half point with the books but for our purposes I'm happy to lay the 3.
DeleteMemphis -3 vs. Houston for one cheddar, please 🙏🏼🧀🦞
ReplyDeleteArizona Cardinals +5
ReplyDelete49ers -6.5
Steelers +14
Texas Tech +9.5
AP - Bengals +3
Essay - Green Bay -8
I'm going back to the well with both another London game and another Packer pick. I have no idea how the Giants are 3-1, but I feel this is the week that they begin to settle into a third place team. If Daniel Jones can't go, the G Men are looking at either Tyrod Taylor or Davis Webb to face Rodgers, who should be salty after last week's close win over the Patriots.
All Play: Ravens -3
ReplyDeleteBuffalo -2 (essay)
Miami -3.5
UCLA +4.5
Jets +3.5
Cowboys +4.5
I just moved, and as I gape across the box-strewn hellscape that is my new house, I was tempted to use my no essay week here. I do need the break from figuring out what goes where, so here we go.
The theme of this week’s college picks is schools in cities which are also home to AFC teams. I almost picked SDSU until remembering the Chargers moved to LA, so naturally I picked UCLA. Buffalo (not the Bills) should be ok against Bowling Green. Both teams have put up meh results so it’s hard to assess who’s got the momentum here. BG’s defense is prone to giving up more points, so I give the edge here to Buffalo.
BYU +3.5 (vs Notre Dame, in Vegas LOL)
ReplyDeletePackers -8 (vs Giants in London)
Bucs -8.5 (vs Falcons)
Steelers +14 (at Bills)
AP: Ravens -3 (vs Bengals)
Essay: Dolphins -3.5 (at Jets)
Its hard to be concerned with Teddy Two Gloves, AKA Teddy Covers taking over at QB. He is literally one of the greatest money makers of his generation: 42-21 ats and 24-6 on road! True, this is his first start of the year, but he had the long week (played Thursday) to get fully prepared which just sets up as a good spot for the Dolphins. And the Dolphins own the Jets: Dolphins are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New York.
And fuck the Jets, the Browns win doesn’t count and a win vs the Steelers also shouldn’t count. The only reason I am not risking my child’s college fund is that Zach Wilson seemed sort of decent last week and is probably better than Flacco (what a funny and telling sentence, though) and Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. So instead, I’ll leverage something else of significant value: my Cheddar Essay (and maybe something closer to value of a couple fast passes at Cedar Point)
TCU -7
ReplyDeleteTCU -7 to Kansas
ReplyDeleteTexas -7 to Oklahoma
*Utah -4.5 to UCLA (essay)
Air Force -10 to Utah State
Bengals +3 to Ravens (all play)
Chiefs -7 to Raiders
essay: Utah -4.5 to UCLA
DeleteI am just playing against the recency bias for UCLA. I think the defense of Utah is just solid enough to give the Utah QB some breathing room. Yeah, I live in Utah, and yeah, I think I want to see them do well. So I am hoping that Cam Rising has his best game of the year tonight and reignites the locals to start shouting 'Cam for Heisman" and other crazy things.
Utah's defense is honestly as impressive as you can get- and I think that shocks the Pac12 powderpuff offense tonight. UCLA won't score more than 20 points.
Purdue +3
ReplyDeleteLSU +3
DeleteAll Play – Ravens -3
ReplyDeleteLSU +3
Auburn +29.5
Air Force -10
BYU +3.5
Utah -4.5 POTY
Wasn’t able to make picks last week since I was drunk and hungover at the same time after a Cleveland wedding, and frankly am doing pretty poorly to start the year so we’re going LEROY JENKINS with a pick of the year to get back on the right track. HOMER ALERT – I love this Utah team. Aside from the Florida whoopsie when we should’ve won the game we’ve done exactly what we’re supposed to do this year. Rising is a great game management quarterback who can throw most of the balls needed, use his legs and the captain jack sparrow mustache gives him some swagger. As usual we have a really physical o-line and running back by committee and our defense plays well and turns the ball over well (Phillips leads the country in interceptions). I think we can have our way with UCLA. It’s nice to see they have some wins this year against local powerhouses like Colordao, Alabama State and Tiajuna tech A&M and what not but they haven’t really played anyone – Chip Kelly’s scheme is well known in the Pac-12 and they’re just not LAs team. UTES big for the POTY.
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ReplyDeleteGetting these that I'm sure of before Noon Sat. kicks. And making sure to push PUBLISH today.
ReplyDelete---Week 5 --
AP Ravens -3 v. Bengals
1. Browns +3 v. Chargers
2. Tennessee -3 @ LSU
E. Steelers +14 @ Bills
14 points against the Steelers? I know Pittsburgh isn't very good this year, but this is just too much. Buffalo 2 weeks ago had a knock-down drag-out in the Miami heat. And last week got everything they could handle to comeback and clip the Ravens. This week, they are going to pull and Uncle Milty, conserve energy, and just walk out with a win. Add to that Pittsburgh upgrading its QB position by moving to "Tiny Hands" Pickett and this is an easy call.
And now, the rest of the story...
ReplyDelete4. Clemson -20.5 @ Boston College
5. Kentucky -10 v. South Carolina
Utah -4.5
ReplyDeleteOhio St -26.5
BYU +3.5
Ole Miss -18
AP Ravens -3
DeleteEssay NO -5.5
Seattle is on back to back long travel road games and NO is looking to bounce back this season. I see NO defense slowing down Geno and the Seattle offense. Don't feel confident that Jameis won't turn it over but think he'll go deep enough to olave to score. My essay picks never seem to hit so looking to get off the schnide today.
I'll start with Michigan State +26.5 over Ohio State and Notre Dame -3.5 over BYU.
ReplyDeleteWhoops, posted my ***POTY!*** ***Browns!*** below. In addition to that I'll also go with the Panthers (+6.5), Cards (+5), and Bengals (+3) to round out my slate. Hope everyone has a blessed day!
DeleteUCLA +4.5 over Utah
ReplyDeleteIowa +3.5 vs Illinois***Essay Play
ReplyDeleteI mean if Illinois is all the sudden at the point where they can go up to Wiscy and thrash them and come home and cover against Iowa this will be a new world indeed. I'm going to take an emotional hedge here and just think this will be close one throughout and I'll take the points but will be happy to be wrong. Illinois should be undefeated if their wide receivers hadn't dropped about 10 passes against Indiana as they gave that game away in the fourth quarter. The transfer QB for Illinois is legit and their HC Bielema kind of looks like a hog and Illinois has plenty of hog farms and it all just kind of makes sense that they are good now. Bielema annexed Wisconsin last week and he will vanquish his alma matter, iowa tonight. they win by 1-2 points late.
Notre Dame -3.5 vs BYU
I know a few people flying in for this one and this seems like an easy spot to take the Irish. Knowing nothing about either team, I don't see Notre Dame disappointing in a big spot in Vegas's new stadium with a bunch of drunk Irish fans. It just feels like a nice easy cover so we'll ride with it.
Browns +3 vs Chargers
Vikings -7 vs Bears
49ers -6.5 vs Panthers
Ravens -3 vs Bengals
Washington State +13 at USC
ReplyDeleteIllinois -3.5 vs. Iowa #newworldorder
Notre Dame -3.5 over BYU
ReplyDeleteDolphins -3.5 over Jets
DeleteBrowns +3 over Chargers
Lions +3 over Patriots
49ers -6.5 over Panthers
Essay: Ravens -3 over Bengals
Like the Browns, the Ravens should be 4-0, but their defense has let them down big time in the second half of their losses to the Dolphins and Bills. Despite the 2-2 record, Lamar Jackson's big bet on himself looks wise thus far, and I think he'll continue to perform well with a Watson deal on the line. Meanwhile, I haven't been impressed by Burrow this season and think his Linsanity run may be over. The AFC North will come down to the Ravens and the Browns, and I like the Ravens to win big tonight.
S Carolina +10
ReplyDeleteTAMU +24
***POTY!*** ***POTY!*** ***BROWNS!*** ***BROWNS!*** ***BROWNS!***
ReplyDeleteSome folks in this thread know that I'm as high on the Browns as I've been since literally the Mangini years. Will likely get into the reasons why in another essay later this season but anyway I laid off the Browns last week in Atlanta because that was just obviously a tough spot, especially with both Garrett and Clowney out, not to mention with the defense needing to adjust to having lost its playcaller Anthony Walker, which is the kind of thing that is always underratedly brutal. Jacob Phillips did not look bad at all filling in, all things considered, and he'll get better every week if he stays healthy. Anyway, the narrative managers on "#BrownsTwitter" losing their minds over last week's loss as if good teams in the NFL don't lose games like the Browns did last week all the time. Really think the Browns match up well v. LA and that the wrong team is favored in Cleveland today. Browns bounce back v. Bolts. POTY me ASAP!
Bold. I like it! Good luck!
DeleteTCU (push)
ReplyDeleteSouth Carolina (W)
TAMU (W)
Ravens -3
Eagles -5
Essay: Bucs -8.5
The Falcons have been a nice story so far, starting 2-2 and covering all four games. That streak ends this week, in a big way. Marcus Mariota completed seven passes in a victory against the Browns last week (vomit), and now he has lost both Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. Meanwhile, Tom “Football and Family” Brady gets his security blanket in Chris Godwin back. Falcons can’t rush the passer; Brady will carve them up.
All-Play Bengals +3 over Ravens
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +5.5 over Saints
Dolphins -3.5 over Jets even without Tua
Cowboys +4.5 over Rams
Essay Eagles -5 over Cardinals -- Weird line, especially where other favorites (Bills, Bucs, Jags) are getting much more deferential treatment. The Eagles have looked like the class of the conference, #2 in DVOA, and the Cardinals have been universally regarded as, at best, inconsistent -- I essayed them last week when they were underdogs to the frickin' Panthers. I don't think strength-of-schedule favors Arizona either (golf clap for beating the Raiders in OT). Haven't seen a better reason to pick the upset than "well, they're going to lose one of these days" which is true of every team every week. I'd probably pick this at -7 and the lower number gets my three biscuit vote.
Ouch ouch ouch.
ReplyDeleteSteelers +14 at Bills
“You guys and everyone else think we’re underdogs,” Pickett said. “But we don’t.” Me either.
The Bills are running out of healthy bodies and particularly of receivers. Josh Allen is good but I’m thinking the Steelers corners might be auditioning to become his new receivers today. Steelers are showing a new look on special teams, activating Steven Sims - the new rules seem to have effectively killed all returns for a TD, but who knows, I still believe.
The Bills are in a look ahead spot, headed to Kansas City next week. I just think two touchdowns on a Pickett with not that much NFL tape, is a huge liability for the Buffalo D. I’m hoping for the Pick Show today, Pickett, to Pickens, while the Steelers D pick, pick, picks. So, this is my essay PICK.
AP: bengals +3 @ ravens
More Kenny Pickett quotes please
DeleteBrowns +3
ReplyDeleteLions +3
Bengals +3
Cards +5 - essay
The Eagles have been solid in all 3 phases but have some injuries at LB which is good for a running QB like Murray. The Cards have been erratic, to put it kindly. Definitely missing Hopkins, but seems like they found a groove on the road against the lowly Panthers. Murray leads the NFL in completions and attempts, so the game is on his back. Mostly, I'm essaying the Cards in acknowledgement of parity in the NFL, where just about everybody is 2-2 and the Eagles are the only unbeaten team at 4-0.
Gonna try and get aggressive to break my team out of their funk. Put me down for Marshall over Louisiana for Wednesday night, ESPN has Marshall favored by 10.5.
ReplyDeleteGotcha, S&O has Marshall -10.5 as well.
Delete