Cheddar Bay Week Eight: Giants +3 at Seahawks
No, that's not Daniel Jones, but would anyone on the Giants really care if it was? NFC pleasant surprise teams meet on Sunday at 4:25. Here are the college lines and the pro lines, and here are the standings.
All Play should (I think will) be Seahawks/Giants. I'll take the Raisins tonight for one point, thank you.
ReplyDeleteI'm well on my way to a Lobsterfest! Will have Tennessee Life Champs -12.5 over KY, Florida +22.5 over UGA, and Go Green Go White +22.5 over Go Blue.
DeleteThe road to Lobster continues today with Seahawks -3 in the all play
DeleteI guess the placeholder post is my way of saying Ravens +1.5 over Bucs but I will disavow it entirely if they screw it up.
ReplyDeleteAtlanta -4
ReplyDeleteRams +1.5
Syracuse -2.5
TCU -7.5
AP - Giants +3
Essay - Titans -2.5
Going with the Titans this week, who once again find themselves in excellent position to wrap up a weak AFC South. Tennessee may become my proxy favorite team again - as they feature everything I dream the Browns could possess: the league's best third down defense, the best red zone scoring attack and a head coach who exhibits actual human emotion. Anyway, the Titans play well in Houston and the Texans are low-key tanking their way to a top overall draft pick (and probably another top 5 thanks to the Browns).
AP: Giants +3
ReplyDeleteTCU -7.5
Kentucky +12.5
SDSU +8.5
Jets +2.5 (Essay)
Bears +9.5
I must be crazy for making another essay on another (surprising) New York football team. True, they’ve lost a promising RB. Everyone else is still there though. I watched the Pats get demolished by the Bears last week. The team responded to Bailey Zappe for about ten minutes, then resumed playing terribly., It’s clear they have problems. I don’t see what Coach Belichick can do in a short week to turn the Pats into road team favorites. A pick-em or a slight Jets favorite makes sense to my inner degenerate. I’ll risk 3 Cheddars on Vegas moving the Pats needle because of all the Barstool guys still putting their rent money on the Pats (because for a good 20 years, that was not a bad practice).
Ohio State -15.5
ReplyDeleteNFL to follow
Falcons -4.5
DeleteLions +3.5
Titans -2.5
Browns +3.5
AP/Essay: Giants +3
The Who-is-the-Fraud Bowl is pretty a fun all-play, which is probably a coin flip and aI am dumb for having a strong opinion. But I am dumb, so I do believe the 6-1 Giants are just simply underrated here. They have built culture under Daboll (a guy the brown had and could have hired more recently) with an offense that is so damn smart with his tools (could not be more the opposite of Stefanski, who runs his offense as if Deshaun is on the field). Dan Jones is actually pretty decent (5th QBR) and Saquon and the rest are healthy. And with the entire NFC East playing so good, they know a letdown spot cannot happen. Meanwhile, Seattle is also a great story they are banged ups tis DK and Lockett not 100. The only pause is the Giants are in a weird schedule spot on a back-to-back road after playing a tight one in Jacksonville last week. But lets go: Giants 20, Hawks 20
Nebraska +7.5
ReplyDeleteMichigan St +22.5 ****Pick of the year****
Sometimes, you can't make a pick based on anything logical, you just have to do it because you have pride in the team.
MSU stinks. They can't run the ball, they're undisciplined, and they haven't played a full game of 4 decent quarters all year. But they are coming off a season saving win and have the bye week to set things right. If the coaching staff learned anything from the first half of the season, they'll switch to a much more pass focused offense and let the one unit that has the advantage, their receiving corps, get to work. The defense also took a colossal step forward last week with getting some key guys back from injury. So there is hope for them to be able to unlock a level of play they haven't shown yet.
22.5 is just a preposterous amount of points. Michigan has only won games this lopsided when an MSU coach was in their last season. I'm not giving MSU much of a chance to win outright, but a 34-14 final would cash my ticket.
As does a 29-7. Sometimes you have to use every bit of the point spread!
DeleteMSU defense came in clutch on the last drive to stop Michigan from running up the score. Very inspiring.
DeleteLes Miles, Saban, Brian Kelly, and Dabo are all Scorpios, and they all have a bye-week. What gives? A gal could start a conspiracy theory with much less. There is an inordinate amount of Scorpio sun sign coaches. The sign of death and rebirth, of decaying matter transforming into fuel.
ReplyDeleteUCF -1.5 vs. Cinci. Happy Belated Gus!
Wake Forest -3.5 at Louisville
Rice -16.5 to Charlotte
ReplyDeleteTennesee -12.5 to Kentucky (essay)
Iowa -10.5 to Northwestern
all play: Giants +3
DeleteBears +9.5 to the Cowboys
Eagles -10.5 to the Steelers
Essay- Tennesee -12.5
ReplyDeleteTennessee's offense has been one of the best in the country this season and they might simply have too much firepower for Kentucky to keep pace. I am just looking for a TD traded for a field goal on a once a quarter basis. 21-9 at halftime type of situation that could get out of control if Kentucky doesn't adjust at all- and it doesn't look like they normally do
Ohio State
ReplyDeleteIllinois -7.5 vs Nebraska
ReplyDelete---Week 8---
ReplyDeleteAP Seahawks -3 v. Giants
1. Bills -10.5 v. Packers
2. Raiders -1.5 @ Saints
3. Texas Tech -2.5 v. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St. +1.5 @ Kansas St.
E. Browns +3.5 v. Bengals
There is little rational basis other than these Browns seem to like to play football under the lights. And the Browns seem to play everyone close, even the Pats game should have been a 1-score game but for Priefer's squad and the subsequent give-up caused the final margin to look worse. Add in missing Ja'Marr Chase and the Browns D typically matches-up well against Joey B and the Bengals. So expect a tight 1 and I'm taking the points.
It will be good to see the Cheddars out at the tailgate on Monday night too.
UNC -3.5
ReplyDeleteOle Miss -1.5
Mich St +22.5
AP Giants +3
DeleteEssay Dolphins -3.5
Denver +2.5
Essay: This pick is all about the Lions lack of health. Hockenson, St Brown and Swift are all questionable, and another 3-4 starters are listed as out for this game. I don't see the lions keeping up with the firepower the Dolphins have with Hill/Waddle, etc. Miami should win this by 7-10 points. This will likely all not happen as I'm 0'fer on Essay picks but fingers crossed.
This is about the time in the season all the pac-12 starts to look pretty average.
ReplyDeleteCal +17.5
Stanford +16.5
Ole Miss -1.5 over A&M
ReplyDeleteSeahawks -3 over Giants
DeleteCommanders +3 over Colts
Packers +10.5 over Bills
49ers -1.5 over Rams
Essay: Browns +3.5 over Bengals
Using my no-essay week this week.
Just spent several minutes seriously considering a pick on the Utah-WSU game before realizing that they played it on Thursday (and I would've gotten it wrong). In that spirit of competence, Arizona State -13.5 over Colorado.
ReplyDeleteOSU (loss)
ReplyDeleteLions
Steelers
Panthers
Giants
Broncos (essay) -2.5 over Jags
Ah the Jaguars’ seemingly annual London game. The Broncos have deserved every ounce of scorn they’ve gotten this year, but this team is too talented to be laying points to a Jaguars team with a mistake and sack prone offense. This will be fugly, but expect the ponies to pull this one out in Tottenham
Should’ve said “getting points” but result is same
DeleteIllinois Football is all the sudden the highlight of my Fall. Amazing! Keep going team!
ReplyDelete49ers -1.5 vs Rams
Steelers +10.5 vs Eagles
Seahawks -3 vs Giants
Browns +3.5 vs Bengals
Raiders -1.5 vs Saints***Essay Play
I was at a work dinner two weeks ago and one of the guys there was a diehard raiders fan. 60 years old, and was super pleased to share with me his raiders memorabilia, his office full of raiders shit everywhere, gotta love people man. On the other side of the match up, I just have to talk about myself for a bit, the New Orleans football team is completely irrelevant to me. I follow the NFL pretty closely and I have absolutely no pulse or details. I'm not a huge colors guy or uniform guy, but I think the saints color are hideous. Raiders roll in this one with Derek Carr tossing to all his friends. Hunter Renfrow is back, he is like really good, I know it's been a slow year with this team but feels like a great spot for the raiders to get some momentum going for the second half of the season.
Lions, Jets, Seahawks, Browns for my NFL slate
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Seahawks -3 over Giants
ReplyDeleteDolphins -3.5 over Lions
Bengals -3.5 over Browns
Essay 49ers -1.5 over Rams -- Not really a road game for SF, trying not to read too much into their getting blown out by the Chiefs, hoping the the absence of Deebo isn't too much of a death blow. On the other hand, generally underwhelmed by the Rams this year even if they did beat the Panthers at their point of maximum woefulness.
Essay - Stillers +10.5 vs. Eagles
ReplyDeleteFolks, she never learns. Here I am essaying yet another game so could confidently argue either side for. The Eagles are undefeated but because they’re coming off a bye week - it feels more like a timeout that got called that might kill the positive momentum (a Cleveland specialty.) The end score of the Cowboys game made Philly look better than they were. The Cowboys turnovers landed them great starting field positions - I think the Eagles averaged around 3 yards per play for that game - not ideal. Not a great vibe for heading into the bye week. Philly added a defensive player - so that may result in some miscues - if that guy is even playing?
The really story here is the Crimson tide. Hurts and Smith of the Eagles and Fitzpatrick of the Steelers. Fitzpatrick actually used to run some routes for Hurts so I think a pick or two is in order. You don’t forget how to read your quarterback. Would love to see Minkah snatch one from Devonta, just like during practice for Alabama. Also, as I might have mentioned, Scorpio season is upon us and both Fitzpatrick and Smith are Scorpios. A lot of dark and dangerous energy getting thrown around out there.
Lastly, I present todays aptonyms. When someone’s name coincidentally coincides with their dealings. This does not support my cover but I love it all the same. Philly has a running back with the surname Gainwell and Pittsburgh has a QB with a 5+% turnover rate with the last name Pickett. You can’t make this stuff up, folks.
Rubber meets the road for the Eagles today. I think it gets spooky for Philly. Maybe the Philly loss to the Astros last night was a Harbinger…
Niners-1.5 at Rams (Bosa and Garoppolo = Scorpios)
ReplyDeleteSaints +1.5 vs Raiders (dalton is a Scorpio + spooky season in NOLA)
Packers +10.5 at Bills - Happy Early Birthday LaFluer (Scorpio)
Strike Packers!
DeleteAll Play Seahawks - guess I should play the all play
Pats -2.5
ReplyDeleteSeahawks -3
DeleteColts -3 essay
Indianapolis has been criminally underperforming this year with Matt Ryan at the helm. There should not be any shock that he's being replaced, perhaps only some surprised that it's by Sam ehlinger. when was the last time you really thought of that Ryan as an elite quarterback? I'm guessing that the folks in Indianapolis have seen enough of what Matt Ryan has to offer a prefer somebody younger and more athletic and hope that he doesn't completely crap his pants in his first start.
Browns
DeleteIn not totally unexpected news, our esteemed founder has sent word from an undisclosed location near Lake Erie that he is on the Browns +3.5 tonight for an essay (skip) and, potentially, a Lobsterfest.
ReplyDelete