Cheddar Bay Week Two: Vikings +2 at Eagles
Somewhat alarmingly, Ben appears to have picked up right where he left off last season with a W1 Lobsterfest. This week we're going with the Monday night game. For anyone else keeping track of Akron's superunderdog status, after not really being close to covering 34.5 last week they are now +47.5 at Tennessee and you have to imagine the hook was subject to some debate.
I'll throw a bone at the Chargers +4. More to come.
ReplyDeleteChiefs -4
ReplyDeleteMore to follow
Miss St -2 (at LSU)
DeleteCardinals +6 (at Vegas)
Packers -10 (vs Bears)
AP: Eagles -2 (vs Vikings)
ESSAY: Jags +4 (vs Colts)
Jags were a few plays from dominating last week, but it all seems fixable and/or just some bad luck. Lawerence is seeming to be definitely overrated and not destined for super-duper-stardom, but he will still have a good career and Pederson is seemingly the coach to get it out of him. Meanwhile, nothing about the Colts last week justifies this insane concept that Colts are 7 points better than the Jags (factoring in homefield as 2-3 points), especially since Matt Ice is probably washed.
Also, home team one last 9 games in series....don't sleep on a homefield where fans can boatgate before the game and then hot tub during the game.
Jags 31, Colts 13
Notre Dame -10.5
ReplyDeleteOregon -3.5
Seahawks +9.5 (essay)
Cardinals +6
Rams -10.5
Eagles -2 (AP)
I have a few teams bouncing back this week from losses, including the 49ers against the Seahawks. Yes I think the 49ers will win this game but I don't think they cover a 9.5 spread for a few reasons. First, these defenses know each other and both are strong (49ers are way better than they showed in 4th Q against the Bears and should be a top 5 defense this year, and Seattle was a good redzone defense last year and appears to being doing again this year). Second and most importantly there is an 80% chance of rain in this game, meaning that both QBs will likely struggle to push the ball deep and the game should be a low scoring affair (20-13 prediction), and I don't think it will get to a 10 point difference in the end. Lastly Trey Lance is a huge wild card and if he struggles at home in the rain, then I could see Seattle stealing this game.
solid assessment
DeleteChargers +4 (Posted Thursday)
ReplyDeleteGiants -2
San Diego State +21.5
UAB -11.5
AP - Eagles -2
Essay - Green Bay -10
As much as I enjoy seeing the self-reverential, pseudo-intellectual doofus Aaron Rodgers endlessly pout during last week's loss against the Vikings, I realize his Packers teams usually rebound in Week Two. While an improving Bears' defense outmuscled a weirdly impotent 49ers team in the rain, their offense is still a bottom three unit. I'll take Green Bay, their strong ATS record and Rodgers' petulant pre-teenage revenge angst.
All Play – Vikings + 2
ReplyDeleteFlorida -24.5 (v. South Florida)
Texas -12.5 (@ UTSA)
Ravens -3.5 (v. Dolphins)
Browns -6 (v. Jets)
Essay – Michigan State +3.5 (@ Washington)
Season over season trend pick week. Michigan State has been on the up and up since Mel Tucker hit campus. Washington seems to be struggling and trending down since Petersen left in 2019. Neither team has played anyone this year so I figure the line reflects Michigan State playing traveling and playing in Washington, which historically is a tough place to play and really loud. Mel Tucker knows this from his time in Colorado and should have his guys right. This is a MSU team that had 11 wins last year, including Michigan (although the OSU game was rough. Washington is coming off a 4 win season, including losses to FCS Montana, Michigan, Oregon State and a Colorado team that looks awful this year. I just don’t think the year over year trends support the Huskies being a favorite.
ReplyDeleteAP: Eagles -2
Western Kentucky +6.5 (Essay)
UCLA -15.5
UTEP -3
Ravens -3.5
Falcons +10.5
Off to another slow start out of the gate. I’m just trying to lull everyone else into complacency.
Despite not even knowing what conference Western Kentucky plays in (CUSA?) I’ll back them against Indiana. WKU has shown that they can put up points, and are getting spotted almost a touchdown just for getting off the bus. I don’t see Indiana’s defense being all that spectacular. If it turns into a high scoring affair, that favors WKU.
Eagles -2 vs Vikings
ReplyDeleteRavens -3.5 vs Fins
Bears +10 vs Packers
Rutgers -17.5 vs Temple
NIU -3 vs Vanderbilt
Clowns -6 vs Jets*
There are just too many good things going the browns way right now. Cade York is on pace to win rookie of the year. Chubb & Hunt are on the field at the same time and it's awesome. Brissett is a nice guy to cheer for, and this defense is fun as hell to watch. The Brownie elf is painted at midfield. I think I caught something about Joe Thomas getting honored this game. I'm not sure I buy that the browns can't score, Brissett can play a lot better and he still managed to make some plays on the final drive when it mattered.
Coastal Carolina -14
ReplyDeleteCalifornia +10.5 at Rudy Can’t Fail (ND) - just a feeling
ReplyDeleteSMU +4 vs. Maryland - The Terrapins cannot cover all of SMUs potential targets.
Washington +3.5 vs. Michigan State - The Spartans secondary is trash
Minnesota -27.5 vs. Colorado - Another night of the PJ Fleck Sending-A-Message-To-Those-Who-Scorn-Him Tour. THREE dudes had a mass exodus last season and took the same roles with the Buffaloes.
Back tonight or tomorrow with the All-Play and an essay. Going to go see what's left of the The Misfits tonight!
Another sluggish start for me this year, which usually leads to a sluggish middle, and a 'sit the playoffs' out at the end of the year.
ReplyDeletePurdue +1 to Syracuse
USF +24.5 to Florida
Essay Auburn +3 to Penn State
All Play- Eagles -2
DeleteBears +10
Saints +3
Essay
ReplyDeleteAuburn +3 to Penn State
Another home dog, and Auburn doesn't lose at home. Auburn is a what Penn State wants to be, a ground first option, with two solid RBs to do some damage. They also have a defense that stacks up to the beefy Big10 standards, but...buuuuutttttt....Auburn has SEC beefy speed. More tackles on deeper in the backfield when Penn States tries to get to the outside. (and that's after Penn State realizes that can't run up the middle)
This is almost my game of the year. (but it is not)
College pick: LSU +2 over Mississippi State
ReplyDeleteLions -1.5 over Commanders
DeleteBrowns -6 over Jets
Panthers +2 over Giants
Patriots -1.5 over Steelers
Essay: Vikings +2 over Eagles
After surrendering 35 points to the Lions, Philly's defense doesn't inspire much confidence heading into a matchup with the Vikings. Justin Jefferson is probably the best receiver in the league, and Kevin O'Connell has unleashed Minny's passing game. Meanwhile, after holding Aaron Rodgers to a touchdown, I'm not worried about Hurts and Sanders going off on the Vikings. (I love A.J. Brown, but he can't do it on his own.) Vikings win this one by a touchdown.
Kansas +9.5 over Houston
ReplyDeleteNevada +23 over Iowa
The over/under on Nevada/Iowa is only 39 despite a 23 point line which I guess suggests that this game should be 30-0. Nevada has scored points though so I'm not sure it makes sense to predict a shutout here. Iowa has not scored points. Is Nevada really that much worse than South Dakota St? Has Iowa fixed anything? Is Kirk Ferentz' dipshit kid still calling plays? Probably not, no, and yes.
I don't really expect Iowa to average 7 points per game all year, but even good teams struggle to cover three touchdown lines from time to time. For Iowa to do that, I feel like they would have to play perfectly. Usually won't go broke betting against perfect, folks.
Give me The U today +5.5 over TAMU and since I am planning to be hung over tomorrow -- officiating a wedding today for the son of one of my best and oldest friends - I will get this Browns essay posted now. How are they not favored by two touchdowns over the Jets? They dominated the Panthers last week in a game that was only close because of fixable mistakes. Brissett will get better. The secondary's signals will get uncrossed. Starting tomorrow, against a team that is probably actually quite a bit worse than Carolina, and which certainly has a much worse quarterback. Flacco in the pocket against Garrett and Clowney should be an absolute bloodbath. 35-7 sounds about right.
ReplyDeleteWill also go with the Vikes, Cowboys, Bears, and Cowboys to round out my slate. Happy weekend and happy football voting, folks!
---Week 2---
ReplyDeleteAP Eagles -2 v. Vikings
1. Jaguars +4 v. Colts
2. Panthers +2.5 @ Giants
3. Packers -10 v. Bears
4. Minnesota -27.5 v. Colorado
E. Browns -6 v. Jets
Am I drunk? Not yet. Stupid? Maybe. Am I crazy? Well, the Browns are going to be my essay until they don't cover the spread. So here we go with this week's extra cheddar on the Cleveland Browns!
Joe Flacco is the QB for the Jets. They would be better off with Ohio St. legend Shane Falco. The statuesque QB (as in he can't move) stands behind an o-line worse than the 1 the Browns destroyed last week. So while Breece Hall, Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are potentially explosive playmakers, the Browns front 7 will likely disrupt a lot. Last week, the Browns blew 2 coverages that resulted in approximately all of the Panthers' offense. Expect that to be improved from week 1 to week 2, even if marginally so.
When the Browns have the ball, they again have the best QB on the field. Very much a tallest person under 4 ft. situation, but an advantage nonetheless. With Chubb and Hunt behind the league's best offensive line, the Browns will eventually get theirs on opportunity alone.
And the Browns have Brownie at midfield marking Yorktown for local hero Cade York (it is now cannon that any field goal 55 yards plus by Cade York is now known as "from Yorktown"). His golden toe is likely the difference between a 3 point W and a cover.
See you at Burke in the morning. GPODAWUND!
College game Michigan State +3.5 over Washington
ReplyDeletePosting for thatsfine who forgot his phone
ReplyDeleteU Washington -3.5
TXAM -5.5
Coastal Carolina (L)
ReplyDeleteJags +4
Saints +3
Niners -9.5
Eagles -2 AP
Essay: Panthers +2
This is a classic Week 2 overreaction game. Neither of these teams are going to make the playoffs, but I saw enough from Baker in the second half last week to give me enough confidence to essay this one. As the Browns fans on here know, Baker is at his best with a clean pocket. The Giants are about 1/4 as scary as Myles and Co last week. Daniel Jones remains turnover prone and the giants D scares no one. For a fun little useless bonus I’ll predict the score, 27-21 Panthers
Should’ve had the courage of my convictions, Akron-wise.
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Eagles -2 over Vikings
Panthers +2 over Giants
Bucs -3 over Saints
Cardinals +6 over Raiders
Essay Browns -6 over Jets — Early in the season is a good time for bandwagon essay picks. Essayed against the Jets last week, felt pretty good about it, and the essential reasoning hasn’t changed. Still-37-year-old Joe Flacco didn’t have a pleasant afternoon against the Ravens and is set for an even less pleasant one today. The Browns under Brissett did not exactly light up the scoreboard but I am hoping a few short field possessions and a steady dose of Chubb/Hunt will be enough to cover a TD. Just as with last week, there’s a reasonable chance this line would be twice as high if the game were played in October.
All-Play - Birds -2
ReplyDeleteEssay: Packers -10 vs. Da Bears
If numbers mean anything, last whatevers against the whatevers in the month of whatever whenever the moon is waxing and if the coach sneezes in the first quarter, then it’s likely to be over the under against the spread eagle. Everything indicates a decisive Packers' W. Big home opener energy! It’s a stunner of a day in Green Bay, high of 80 and cloudy. I was genuinely happy to see the Bears pull off an upset last week in freak weather and I watched Green Bay lose to a really solid Vikings presentation. I think 10 is a lot, but if I like it a 9.5…there’s no other QB I trust to put up points against the Bears like Aaron. I don’t remember when it was, but I watched Rodgers run back onto the field in the last quarter (few minutes?) of a game the Bears were set to win and absolutely ruin them. It’s a vibe.
Saints +3 over Buccs
ReplyDeleteCommanders +1.5 over Lions
Bears +10 over Packers
Eagles -2 over Vikings
Cowboys +7.5
ReplyDelete49ers -9.5
Cards +6 - essay
Feels like an overreaction to the Cards getting run at home by the the Chiefs, who clearly will contend for the AFC title again this year. But, losing at home was the Cards M.O. last year, instead finding success with a record of 8-1 on the road last year. Derek Carr was under pressure all day and I didn't see anything to justify the Raiders laying 6 last week. This is a FG game no matter which way it goes, but I see the Cards righting the ship this week.
Vikings + 2.
Delete