Cheddar Bay Week Three: Florida +10.5 at Tennessee
With condolences to any who may have considered their Browns -6 pick to be well in the bag at the two minute warning, and just about in time to throw good votes after bad tonight against the Steelers, here is this week's thread. College All-Play this Saturday, 3:30 at Rocky Top. College lines. Pro lines. Standings. Good luck!
I'll take Steelers +4 as an emotional hedge to start off my weekend.
ReplyDeleteFlorida
DeleteRavens -2.5 over Patriots
DeleteChiefs -5.5 over Colts
Titans +2 over Raiders
Essay: Giants -1 over Cowboys
DeleteCooper Rush will come back down to earth this week as the Cowboys travel for their first road game of the season against the resurgent G-Men. For those of us who supported Mangini in the Holmgren Wars, seeing Daboll's coaching career take off has been a sight to behold. While I don't think Daniel Jones is salvageable in the long term, Dabes will get the most out of him this year, and that includes a win tonight. Zeke doesn't scare anyone anymore, and trading Amari Cooper is a decision that Jerry Jones likely already regrets. The Giants will take care of business tonight in a low-scoring affair.
I need an intense Canton McKinley style training sesh to get my team out of last place and put up some points here.
ReplyDeleteMSU +3 over Minnesota
Florida +10.5 over Tennessee - allplay
Rutgers +7.5 over Iowa
Ravens -2.5 over Patriots
Lions +6 over Vikings - essay
Commanders +6.5 over Eagles
Essay on the Lions as I am now ingesting absolutely haram quantities of blue kool-aid over the Lions offense, particularly the emergence of the first real feature back in Detroit since Barry Sanders' fateful transmission to a Wichita fax machine. I don't think Jared Goff is any good, but the Lions offense was able to put up a ton of points on a strong Eagles squad, while Kirk Cousins spent all of week two throwing directly to Darius Slay. Would be nice if Slay hadn't been kicked off the Lions by that fat fuck rocket scientist who had one of the most destructive coaching tenures in sports history, but I digress. I think there's a good chance Okudah gets a pick thrown his way. Even if the Lions can't win, Dan Campbell's team has rarely gotten blown out and should keep it close.
Illinois -18.5 vs Chattanoga
ReplyDeleteBrowns -4 vs Steelers
One point on the god damn Browns
ReplyDeleteHey how about those god damn Browns!
DeleteI'll go with the Gators in the all play today,
one point as well on Arkansas +2.5 over TAMU,
and will take Wisconsin +19 for my three pointer this week.
I have some Buckeye friends who have tickets to this game and are all like "eh I don't want to because it's gonna be a blowout." Anyone been to one of these night games in awhile knows they are just brutal for the home crowd with the TV timeouts and related interruptions, which would be a better reason not to go tonight. Anyway, congrats on hanging 77 on Toledo. Badgers have a chance to breathe some life into their season tonight and it says here they'll keep it within 19. Namaste and a blessed weekend to all.
Will be back tomorrow with 2 more NFL votes.
Broncos and Cowboys to round out my slate
DeleteFlorida +10.5 vs Tennessee
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI'm short 1 pt from week 2.
fixed (I think)
DeleteAll play Florida +10.5
ReplyDeleteLiberty -26.5
ReplyDeleteHawaii +5
Saints -3
Detroit +6
AP - Tennessee -10.5
Essay - Michigan -17
I'll admit - I'm not a fan of any of these games. If the Chargers had a healthy Justin Herbert, I'd jump all over that -7 against Jacksonville. Similarly, Baker Mayfield getting his first taste of a physical Saints defense is also tempting. Also, I'll ride the Akron train for as long as I can. However, I'll go in a fairly conservative direction and take Michigan at home against a Maryland team sporting a soft 3-0 record. Michigan's 11-2 ATS a year ago is good enough for me.
AP: Tennessee -10.5
ReplyDeleteMaryland +17
Tulane -13 (Essay)
Lions +6
Bears -2.5
Giants -1
Not a bad showing last week, which means I’m not throwing desperate haymakers in Week 3. Perhaps that can wait for Week 5. Since I’m hanging out with a buddy from Louisiana tomorrow night, it’s only appropriate that I pick a school from that state. LSU has too high of a spread to cover, so let’s shift to Tulane. They’ve shown a stingy defense and are going against an opponent that I’d place in a slightly lower tier. I don’t see the Southern Miss offense getting much going, so I’m backing Tulane for 3 cheddars this week.
Clemson -7 (at Wake)
ReplyDeleteCardinals +3.5 (vs Rams)
Packers PK (at Bucs)
49ers -2 (at Broncos)
AP: Tenn -10.5 (v Florida)
Essay: Panthers +3
Home dogs are 9-5 ATS so far. Then Panthers are prob undervalued (I guess line was -1 Panthers) as they should be 1-1 if that penalty was called and could be 2-0 with a few other bounces. They play close games. Jameis appears hurt and Dalton might play (although Jameis was so bad last week, it could be an upgrade). And then there is my fact of the week: 0-2 teams playing non-winless teams are 45-29 ATS in Week 3 over the last 84 matchups.
Minnesota -3 @ Michigan State
ReplyDeleteAP: Florida +10.5 @ Tennessee
Ravens -2.5 @ Pats
California -3 @ Arizona
**Essay** Washington -13.5 vs. Stanford
This is not my most inspired essay pick - which is okay. This is often when my most practical picks are made. I was at the Browns game on Thursday and it was pretty much a perfect night. The clouds were a most-perfect pinky-blue during the sunset. I’m not sure what more I can ask the football gods for this week. A win over the Steelers at home pretty much does it. But ask for more I must, and I’m asking the Huskies for a cover on a late night game. Maybe this year is the the Pac-12 doesn’t cannibalize themselves! Maybe. Stanford is coming off a bye week - just more time to sit in the shame of what happened when they played USC. The clock tolls for Shaw.
Eagles -6.5 vs. Commanders
All Play – Florida +10.5
ReplyDeleteRavens -2.5 (@Pats)
Dolphins +6 (v. Bills)
Baylor +2.5 (@ Iowa State)
Texas -6.5 (@ Texas Tech)
Essay – USC -6.5 (@Oregon State)
Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams have hit the ground running full speed at SC. While they haven’t played anyone big time yet (Rice, Stanford, Fresno) they’ve been able to score in bunches through the running game with the Oregon transfer or Williams and all his weapons at receiver. Three games and 152 points is nothing to scoff at. I don’t see Oregon State holding them under that 40 number. Frankly I don’t know a thing about OSU this year other than it’s still OSU, a middle of the road Pac-12 north team that struggles to get big recruits, losing out to the California teams or big brother in Autzen. The only nice data point I have is OSU and USC have already had a common opponent in Fresno State. USC drubbed them 45-17 (starters pulled in the 4th quarter) and OSU barely got out with s 35-32 win. OSU body of work also includes a drubbing of Montana State and a down trending Boise State. 6.5 seems light, I think USC puts up 40 and OSU struggles to get in the 20s.
---Week 3---
ReplyDeleteAP Tennessee -10.5 v. Florida
1. Falcons +0.5 @ Seahawks
2. Lions +6 @ Vikings
3. 49ers +2 @ Broncos
4. Ohio St. -19 v. Wisconsin
E. Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams
Quick words about this one. A tail of 2 disappointing teams. Rams have not lived up to the Super Bowl hype. Kyler on the new contract has been in video game mode, but not the good kind where he plays like a video game. The bad kind that got the weird contract clause because he's play Call of Duty instead of watching film. Either way, the hook is too juicy in a spot where you expect a grind-it-out division game that really could go either way.
USC -6.5 (Essay)
ReplyDeleteBaylor +2.5
Oregon -7
49ers -2
Bengals -5
Florida +10.5 (AP)
It's a slow build for me to start the season, from 1 pt to 3 pts, now hoping to make the jump. USC talent + Lincoln Riley scheme = big points. They are averaging 50+ points per game to start the season. I see them easily winning this by more than one touchdown against Oregon State. I don't think USC is a national contender yet, but they look like they are top 2 in the Pac 12 and I see Oregon St being a .500 team this year. I've picked 3 west coast teams to cover this week.
UTenn -10.5
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Florida +10.5 over Tennessee
ReplyDeleteAll play: Tennessee -10.5 to Florida
ReplyDeleteUSC -6.5 to Oregon state
Oklahoma -12.5 to KState
Essay: Sooners *litcherally (British accent) just got the coach of the last team they played fired- so I’m pretty sure Venables defense isn’t too worried about a KState offense that tries to run the ball… since they have one of the 10 worst offenses in ‘Big 6’ conferences
Oklahoma wins by 24
Essay: Oklahoma -12.5 to KState
DeleteTXAM -2.5 essay
ReplyDeleteI am a fan of this spot in college, the lowering team is the one laying points. Especially this early in the season teams get high in their rankings playing nobody's, or just on public sentiment. I think that's kind of the way Texas A&m started off before Appalachian State stun them at home. But, they have the recruits and they have everything a team could want to contend for their division in the sec. I'll lay the points on a neutral field.
Chiefs -5.5 vs Colts
ReplyDeleteBills -6 vs Dolphins**essay Play
I'm hearing about how the Dolphins are 'good' this year, and certainly how they came back against the Ravens was crazy impressive. Though just like the Jets coming back against the Browns, it says more about the Browns than it does the Jets and I imagine there are people in Baltimore seeing ghosts still after that fourth quarter collapse. This Bills team has played like a they are in a league of their own so far to start this season, and I don't think Miami can keep up. I think Miami stays with them for the first half, but Joshy is sooo much better than Tua and the rest of the rosters are comparable, Bills just keep on rolling. The only thing stopping the Bills this year is injuries and Deshaun Watson coming back for the clowns.
Bengals -5 vs Jets
Florida (W)
ReplyDeleteCommanders 6.5
Jaguars 7
Panthers 3
Bucs -1
Essay: Dolphins +6
This is a real “hold your nose” essay, but I have been incredibly impressed with the job Mike McDaniel has done in Miami. They are catching a TD at home versus, undoubtedly, the best team in the NFL thru 2 weeks.But the Bills’ defense is a MASH unit now. On brand, they say suicide is painless, so this essay is a kamakaze mission. Let’s go Fins.
Bills -6
ReplyDeleteBengals -5
Chiefs -5.5
Too late to essay these:
ReplyDeleteRavens -2.5 over Patriots
Lions +6 over Vikings
Chiefs -5.5 over Colts
Perhaps we should've updated this line but we didn't, meanwhile RIP my fantasy team:
Jaguars +7 over Chargers
Essay Cowboys +1 over Giants -- I haven't exactly been poring over Giants tape but I have seen a couple of "Worst 2-0 Teams Ever" articles and I am not convinced they should be favored here after squeaking by the Titans and Panthers. Cooper Rush is obviously not the future of the QB position but, let's face it, neither is Daniel Jones. DVOA doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot after two weeks but Dallas is #15 and the Giants... aren't. Hard to think of the Cowboys as undervalued but here's hoping this line is just an expression of unwarranted optimism from the NY betting public.
Bengals -5
ReplyDeleteCards +3.5
Delete49ers -1
Cowboys +1
---Week 4---
ReplyDelete3. Giants -3.5 v. Bears
4. Ravens +3.5 v. Bills
E. Titans +3.5 @ Colts
The Colts are a bad football team. Their Oline isn't very good. Their QB is old old and looking washed. Injuries are starting to pile up. And they get to face a Titans team, also not very good, that will simply grind you, especially a division opponent. Division games are typically closer due to familiarity of the teams, so expect a close game here. In a close division game situation, it's always a good call to take them points. Especially with teams that are relatively even. So give me those juicy points for 3 this week.