Cheddar Bay Week One: Bucs -1.5 at Cowboys
Welcome back to Cheddar Bay, 2022 edition. Rules are pretty much the same as last year, per this post. (Any tweaks will be announced ASAP.) We will usually aim to lock lines and put up the weekly post on Wednesday of each week and this week's are here: NCAA and NFL. As usual, any irresistible early-week MACtion or the like can always be posted in the previous thread. This is a full-fledged college/pro Week 1 and so picks will count for a full point. Also as usual, the one-hour-before-kickoff rule for essays will be enforced by timestamp and has no wiggle room whatsoever.
I will have a new spreadsheet here to keep track of scores. In the past we've asked you to post later picks as a reply to your first comment in the thread, but I think it'll actually be easier if you just post a new comment every time. I made occasional counting/tabulating errors last year so please keep an eye on your own score and let us know if something needs to be corrected.
Typically Bills-Rams would be a better choice but we would rather not have the first All-Play of the season be a Thursday game announced on the Wednesday, so we are going with the Sunday night NFC matchup instead. That said, I will open the voting with Bills -2.5 over Rams. Cheers and good luck to all!
Hell yeah, we are back.....
ReplyDeleteRams +2.5 (vs Cowboys)
Alabama -20 (at Texas) Jags +3 (at C Words)
Chargers -3.5 (vs Raiders)
AP: Bucs -1.5 (at Cowboys)
Chiefs -4 (at Cards)
Thanks to the Deshaun saga, the trainwreck offseason of the Cards has flown under the radar. They were already in free fall to end last year, then they lose their best defensive player (Chandler Jones) and best offensive player for the first 6 (Hopkins). Then there is the whole thing about how Kyler may not be good and Kingsbury is even more worthy of doubt. Then then did the weird contract extension, but then attempted to publicly shame Kyler about studying. And guys were apparently missing anything optional, so something is up there.
Then look at KC, who really seems to have had a nice offseason. They lose Hill, but the WR room is reloaded from all I can tell. That diversity at WR, coupled with an excellent o-line, might help the offense get out of some of the ruts it found itself in last year. Something has to give with all these favorites in week 1, but Chiefs feels as safe as it gets.
also, I looked at the standings....I should have 6 points for week 1 (not 5).....my jags pick was sort of hiding when I cut and paste, so it was easy to miss
DeleteTitans +5.5
ReplyDeleteBears +7
Bills -2.5
Chiefs -4
AP - Cowboys +1.5
Essay - Michigan State -34.5 over Akron
Cheddar is back!
I can feel in my bones a total collapse coming from the Browns this year. Jeff Garcia was the last QB to win a season opener and this year's offense could be a bottom three unit. I should pull the trigger on a POTY, but if watching Baker for four years has taught me anything, it's that he can never be trusted - even on a sure thing.
So we'll go with the numbers and take Mel Tucker's Spartans, who have been terrific ATS, especially against non-conference opponents. For as good as MSU has been ATS, the Zips have been worse. They barely survived FCS St. Francis and may not even score in this one.
Bills -2.5
ReplyDeleteGreetings all, from sunny (not for long) Charlotte, where I'll bear witness to the Cleveland Browns beginning another campaign of disappointment. Hopefully my title defense has different results.
ReplyDeleteLouisville +6.5
Browns +2.5 (stale line)
Giants +5.5
Chefs -4
AP: Bucs -1.5.
Essay: Seahawks +6.5 over Broncos
Classic opening week trap game. Count me as someone not buying the hype on Denver. Russell Wilson was actually quite bad last year, and he's a year older. Seahawks are not going to be a good team, but I trust Pete Carroll to get his squad ready, at home, on national TV, catching nearly a full TD and XP.
All Play / Cowboys +1.5
ReplyDeleteBrowns +2.5 (@ Panthers)
Washington State +17 (@ Wisconsin)
Houston +2.5 (@Texas Tech)
USC -9 (@Stanford)
Essay – Baylor +3.5 @ BYU
Looking into a crystal ball BYU is going to be a middle of the pack team in the Big 12. Baylor shouldn’t be dogs here. They’re returning many of the guys that helped beat BYU by 14 last year, guy that beat a talented Ole Miss in a comeback bowl game and guys that won the Big 12. BYU also brought some guys back but they’re just not playing the same caliber of team week in and week out. Little bias towards the rankings here as well but a number 9 Baylor vs. a number 21 BYU with Baylor being the dog just doesn’t pass the sniff test. Maybe someone knows something I don’t, but pedigree and recent history suggest that Baylor should win this, quite likely by double digits.
UNLV +13 @ California
ReplyDeleteAP: Buccs -1.5 @ Cowboys
Eagles -4 @ Lions
Colts -8 @ Texans
Essay: Central Michigan -4.5 vs. South Alabama
I have concerns about the Chippewas defensive backfield. However, Rob Akey, their defensive coordinator, graduated from Weber State within the same month I was born. He’s been doing this for a while. This line is an overreaction to both Central Michigan’s loss to Oklahoma State and South Alabama’s win over (checks notes) Nicholls State. The Jaguars QB, Carter Bradley, transferred from Toledo. If you can’t hang with MAC, you can’t hang with the MAC. Meanwhile, Daniel Richardson earned the MAC West Division Offensive Player of the Week, last week - a very fine distinction.
The real story here is CMU Head Coach, Jim McElwain (Mac) vs. his mentee, Rob Ezell, South Alabama’s tight-end coordinator. Ezell worked under Mac at Colorado State, and has all kinds of nice things to say about Mac and his family. Mac suffered a seizure over the summer, less then a year after an emergency appendectomy that kept him from the Chippewa 2021 season opener. The writing is on the walls, and facing mortality is a fantastic motivator. Mac will use this game as an opportunity to give Rob multiple reasons to toast him the next time they sit down for a few brewskis!
AP: Cowboys +1.5
ReplyDeleteNorth Carolina -7.5
Pitt +6.5
Virginia +4.5
Panthers -2.5 (Essay)
Texans +8
It’s that time of year again - summer fun is done, ExxonMobil has Pumpkin Spice Gas at the pump, and it’s another annual donation to the prize pool.
While I know this may ruffle a few feathers on this board, I’m backing the Panthers in the Baker Mayfield Bowl. If I were a Browns fan this past offseason would have ensured I’d be done with them. Preseason buzz was good for the Panthers, whereas I didn’t hear much about the Browns, not that I was looking. For this week preseason buzz is all most of us have to work with, except the hard core who have computers chugging away for optimal picks.
Good luck to all..
AP: Cowboys +1.5
ReplyDeleteChiefs -4
49ers -7
Pittsburgh (NCAA) +6.5
Auburn -22.5
Alabama -20 (essay)
Nick Saban is ready to get back on that win streak big time against his old assistants. This Bama team just routed a decent Utah State team 55-0 and pull back the starters after halftime. Texas won't be able to move the ball or score against Alabama (I'm guessing 13 points for Texas) while the Tide will likely roll 40+ against the Texas defense. Texas has a unproven, young QB (Quinn Ewers) who was not spectacular against Lousiniana Monroe and this game won't go well for him. On the other side, I think Bryce Young and the Bama offense will roll over this Texas defense.
---Week 1---
ReplyDeleteAP Cowboys +1.5 v. Buccaneers
1. Baylor +3.5 @ BYU
2. Wisconsin -17 v. Washington St.
3. Alabama -20 @ Texas
4. Ohio St. -43.5 v. Arkansas St.
E Browns +2.5 @ Panthers
Welcome back Cheddarers and Cheddarettes! Happy to be back for yet another season. Let's open this season of voting with 3 big points risked on a team that never ever ever wins week 1, the Cleveland Browns.
This is the year. They open against their inconsistent former starting QB, the winningest QB in Cleveland Browns, nee Fraud & Bribery Colosseum, after Baker finally surpassed Big Ben Rapelisberger. What finally convinced me on this is that Myles Garrett apparently doesn't like #6. I can think of very few people who I would want to be on their bad side. With a mostly healthy squad and JOK to focus on tackling oft-injured McCaffrey.
Offensively, Jacoby Brissett will simply be asked to throw the ball to the guys in Brown shirts running open all over the field and not at the guys in the white tops and complete hand offs to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest & maybe Ford too. The first thing is something #6 couldn't do last season and pretty much sums up why he's on the opposite sideline Sunday.
In summary, I'm on the better team and taking them juicy, juicy points. Happy Cheddaring!
I almost reached the mountain top last year, was so close I could taste it. Had I fully committed to my paw patrol essays to finish the playoffs, i think I that would have done it. Nevertheless, here we are to commence another season in which the cleveland football browns will finally return to dominance.
ReplyDeleteClowns +2.5 vs Panthers
Vikings +1.5 vs Packers
Illinois -4 vs Virginia
Florida -6 vs Kentucky
AP: Cowboys +1.5 vs Bucs
EP: Chiefs -4 vs Cards
I really like kylar murray, the problem is his team seems like a hot mess. They way overpaid for hollywood brown, the ones they kept are hurt or suspended, and Mr Kingsbury just may not cut it in the NFL, most hot shot college coaches don't work out for whatever reason. So I'm seeing a GM handing out weird contracts, I'm seeing their star wide receiver drive 126 MPH on an Arizona expressways on one end. Meanwhile….things have largely been quiet on the KC side as they rebuilt their WR core, Not giving big time money to Tyreek Hill seems like a wise decision. I mean even I'm excited to see how Juju plays in this offense. Skye Mahomes just watched joshy allen light up the Rams Thursday and will want to remind everyone that his shovel pass style is a winning approach as well!
Here we GOOOOOO!
ReplyDelete1. Georgia State +7.5 (to UNC)
2. Florida -5 (to Kentucky)
3. Texans +8 (to Colts)
4. Bengals -6.5 (to Steelers)
5. All Play: Bucs -15. (to Cowboys)
6. Essay: Pitt +6.5 (to Tenn)
Essay: Home dogs. I am chasing home dog all year. Pitt with a new offensive strategy, this game is an easy over. Defenses are a loose as the toilet seat in my guest bathroom. After beating their nemesis, this Tennessee team shouldn't be too intimidating
Notre Dame -20.5
ReplyDeleteWisconsin -17
Virginia +4.5 over Illinois
ReplyDeleteIowa State +3.5 over Iowa
Florida -5 over Kentucky
Hopping on Michigan State -34.5 in the nick of time.
ReplyDeleteLovely to be back. The most wonderful time of the year, cheddar bay.
ReplyDeleteKansas +13
Oregon State +1
Stanford + 9 essay
ReplyDeleteLots of hype around USC heading into this year, it feels a bit manufactured. Entering the season ranks, and now number 14 for no real discernible reason besides somebody in California has to be ranked, it might as well be the team in LA. Of course getting Lincoln Riley was a huge triumph, but really it's mostly the same team that's look pretty half-assed and underachieving for as long as my kids can remember. I'm not all that impressed by running up 66 points on Rice, who are consistently one of the worst teams in FBS. Stanford keeps it close at home, maybe pulls the upset to get the pac-12 mostly out of the playoff conversation this year.
Great to see all the folks back for another season!
ReplyDeleteI'll kick off another season of prospecting with the Wildcats of Kentucky +5. Back with 5 pro picks tomorrow.
Woo I am well on my way to a Lobsterfest. Vote of the week this week is the Browns +2.5 over the Panthers. I should know better but the "guilty until proven innocent"/"women never lie"/"billionaires never conspire" crowd has got me pulling for the old Brownies again so this is a bit of a week 1 homer play but I do think the locker room will have a bit of an "us against the world" mentality during the Deshaun Watson era, I don't see Matt Rhule outcoaching Stefanski today, and I think people are making way too much of the fact that the starters didn't play in the preseason.
DeleteFor the rest of my slate I'll bark with the Steelers +6.5 over Cincy, Raiders +3.5 over Chargers, Cowboys +1.5 over Bucs, and Seahawks +6.5 over Broncos. Hope everyone has a lovely Sunday.
My college pick was Stanford (submitted via text).
ReplyDeletePro picks:
Browns +2.5 over Panthers
Steelers +6.5 over Bengals
Jags +3 over Commanders
Bucs -1.5 over Cowboys
Essay: Ravens -7 over Jets
I'm all in on contract-year Lamar. He wants a Watson deal, and what better way to start his campaign to get one than by obliterating the hapless Jets? It'd be one thing if Cougar Hunter Zach Wilson was under center for the Jets; instead, though, we're getting the mummified remains of Joe Flacco, who's gone 2-11 in his last 13 starts dating back to the 2019 season. The Ravens know him better than anyone, so I expect their defense to torment him throughout the day. By halftime, Garrett Wilson will be questioning his decision to leave Columbus. Baltimore will roll by at least two scores here.
re: your essay - nailed it!
Delete
ReplyDeleteComing off Ws for the Bills and MSU, staying chalk:
All-Play Bucs -1.5 over Cowboys
Chiefs -4 over Cardinals
Eagles -4 over Lions
Essay Ravens -7 over Jets — Lots of bad contractual and injury-related vibes around Baltimore, but I guess I am just that skeptical about 37-year-old Joe Flacco. Who knows how the Lamar Jackson situation is going to shake out over the course of the season, but this ought to be a talent mismatch. Don’t love laying the touchdown in W1 but I feel like there’s a good enough chance this line would be double digits if the game was happening two weeks from now. `
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ReplyDeleteBengals -6.5 over Steelers
ReplyDeleteDolphins -3 over Patriots
I'll take the Cowboys in the all-play, essay to come
Giants + 5.5
ReplyDeleteCowboys + 1.5
Cowboys +1.5 over Bucs:
ReplyDeletePretty lousy vibes from both teams lately. A person once called Jim Rome to say that Mike McCarthy's playcalling is so bad because he's not looking at a playsheet on the sideline, he's actually looking at a Ponderosa menu. Players don't respect him and just go straight to Jerry Jones on everything. Meanwhile Tom Brady goes missing for 11 days and comes back looking like a POW.
Gonna side with Dallas here strictly as the home team and also because, Ponderosa or not, McCarthy has had winning seasons and playoff runs as a coach, and Todd Bowles has not.
Seahawks+6.5
ReplyDelete