***CHEDDAR BAY REGULAR SEASON FINALE: Alabama (+3) vs Georgia
Somehow the longer NFL season still flew by on us faster than we wanted, especially for some members of the Executive Committee, and the playoffs is nearly upon us. So after deep analysis, the Executive Committee has decided SIX (6!!!) competitors will make the prestigious Cheddar playoffs, with the standings being finalized after the play of the week. Six is a few more % wise than the normal 10%, but with a lower turnout in this reboot year it seemed a Top 6 Playoff is the way to go.
We started with 29 participants in Week 1, 21 were making picks as of Weeks 11, and 18 have carried through every week. We still need to do a tad more housekeeping on the financials, but I am currently operating on the notion that we have $2000 of received. Therefore, subject to minor changes, the breakdown will be: $1200 for 1st place, $300 for 2nd place, $200 for whoever is in 1st place after this week's regular season finale, and $200 divided up for the weekly winners.
As of now, the weekly winners will get $25 per week and I have the following winners so far:
- Week 11: CapGG
- Week 12: Thatsfine
- Week 13: Jmacdaddio, ChuckKoz, and Agnes
- Week 14: AmplifiedEsq
- Week 15: Teddycuddles and Matt Borcas
- Week 16: Nick Harlow
- Week 17: OXR
Feel free to follow up with any questions or concerns. We apologize for a slightly later post this week, but we wanted to figure out the right number of playoff participants.
And lets all root for this.
__________________
Side note: It is extremely unlikely, but in the event I am able to get into the Top 6, I will recuse myself and whoever finishes 7th gets in the playoffs
Thanks gents for all your hard work this year. In my only other year participating, 2019, we did a blind submission for playoff picks through a proxy so as to maximize game theory. Will this again be an option?
ReplyDeleteyeah, we will have picks submitted without revealing until a pick deadline. details to follow in next week's post
DeleteThanks Chuck
DeleteTexans 10 over Titans
DeleteDolphins 6.5 over Pats
Seahawks 6.5 over Cardinals
Bears 5.5 over Vikes
AP to come
Essay: Chargers -3 over Raiders
I have been extremely impressed with the Raiders this year, particularly Derek Carr. First the Gruden fiasco, then the Ruggs tragedy, and now they are playing home game for the right to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, their team is bereft of talent on both sides of the ball. The Chargers are well coached, healthy at the right time, and have a QB who’s eager to put his stamp on playoff lore.
AP Georgia -3 over Alabama
DeleteI get Access Denied when trying to access lines.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, that's to everyone who made this happen this year.
With that said, thanks to everyone who made this happen this year.
DeleteShould be fixed now, sorry about that
DeleteHad the same issue
DeleteLooks like a pro heavy week. I’m guessing that it’s because the college season is drawing to an end.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -3
Strange things happen in the last NFL week. Some teams are playing for everything, some for nothing, and a lot of starters sit.
Eagles +4.5 Essay
Lions +3.5
Cardinals -6.5
Rams -4.5
Chiefs -11
Two weeks in a row with the Eagles? Yes, time to go to the well one too many times. They’re ending the season on a strong note. Philadelphia is a tough place to play and while the Cowboys might have something to play for (I haven’t done the mental gymnastics needed to assess the playoff scenarios) I don’t think much changes for them should they lose. Meaning that if they fall behind relatively early, they may yank starters to keep them healthy for the post season.
Good luck everyone, and thanks to the Cheddar junta for putting it all together. Here’s hoping the next season is free from Covid drama.
Chiefs -11 vs Broncos
ReplyDeleteThanks to all participants and organizers for another year!
Georgia -3 vs Alabama
DeleteWFT -7 vs Giants
Pats -6.5 vs Dolphins
Raiders +3 vs Chargers
Browns -6 vs Bengals
Joey B sitting out the Bengals deserve a rest, nice win last week and taking advantage of opportunities. What disappointing year for the Browns, the fourth quarter play has been the most depressing. But, the defense looks great! Newsome, Joker, flashed all year, Delpit was even starting to come on late, all they need is average quarterback play and this is a contender. Perhaps they can look back and be grateful this year occurred. This game feels like a scrimmage and I'll take browns defense plays well versus backups and browns enjoy come component quarterback play to end the year. doug dieken's last game as announcer which is a big deal.
Essay: Raiders +3 v Chargers [!POTY!]
ReplyDeleteAP: Alabama +3 v Georgia: I'm not making the mistake of betting against Saban again. Should Georgia win, so be it, I won't be against Nick Satan.
1: Dolphins +6.5 v Patriots
2: 49ers +4.5 @ Rams
3: Jaguars +15 v Colts
4: Eagles +4.5 v Cowboys
I wanted to use my POTY last week on the Steelers but got busy on Monday and didn't have a chance to pop back in to post it. So I've got to use it here as I'm sitting right below the playoffs line. I'm waiting for the last regular season game for a division game between 2 teams that are very familiar and expect to play each other close. The Raiders are at home. The Raiders win close games. The Raiders want to roll into the playoffs and knock out their division rival. I expect a fun game, but my POTY is on the Raiders getting 3.
Colts
ReplyDeleteDolphins
Raiders
Titans
Bills
AP and Essay - Georgia -3 over Alabama
Thanks to all those who made Cheddar possible this year. Even though I’ve experienced a Baker-esque season-long slump, I greatly enjoy the contest.
My final essay of the year reflects my general stubborn nature. I fully realize Alabama will drop 40 on Georgia but because I lost this exact bet a few weeks ago, I have to again go with Georgia in the hopes of both achieving a petty personal victory and some long lost Cheddar redemption.
To close, congrats to all the Cheddar playoff contenders and best of luck!
Cowboys -4.5 essay
ReplyDeleteI can't even begin to factor the covid list into this game because both teams are getting hit by it. But, the cowboys definitely have more to play for here. A win gives them the second seed, a loss and they could drop his lowest number four. That could be the difference between hosting the saints and hosting the Cardinals who they just lost to. The eagles can be number 6 or 7, doesn't really matter they are going on the road, and Nick syriani said as much this week. If we want to look at recent comps the eagles had to battle back and struggled to put away Washington last week, and the cowboys could have hung 70 on them the week before. Cowboys all the way this week.
DeleteBig ups to all the behind the scenes work that goes into making this happen. Happy to have it back for another year and hope to see you all again.
Bears +5.5
Seahawks +6.5
Rams -4.5
Raiders +3
Bama +3
Ravens -3.5 (Steelers)
ReplyDeleteTitans -10 (Texans)
Jets +16 (Bills)
Raiders +3 (Chargers)
AP: Alabama +3
Essay: Browns -6 (Bengals)
First off, I need a reason to make this watchable. I mean shit, every year my dumbass gets delusional and amped for the Browns. And every year there are fans at the games (not 2020), I look myself in the mirror in the final week and say to myself "chuck, they had no talent...i knew that...move on to next year." But this year was different. This MFrs really had a ton of talent but simply didn't get it done. It is enraging how they underperformed. Of course, Baker is a huge part of it and that discussion is all over twitter and 850. But man I am super down on Stefanski. His only success came with no fans. And while that may sound like I am reaching, I think you can see a guy this past season, with wild crowds, that routinely led a team that sucked late in games. And something about his head being buried in the playbook, never showing emotion....it's a problem. I mean, sure, the meathead screaming approach doesn't seem to work, but neither is opposite extreme booknerd ivy shit.
As for today, though, we still do have that talent. And Bengals are wisely resting their young talent. Pride for the home crowd should get it done with an undefeated Case Keenum.
1. Bears +5.5 @ Vikings
ReplyDelete2. Dolphins +6.5 vs. Patriots
3. Bucs -8 vs. Panthers
4. Rams -4.5 vs. 49ers
5. All Play: UGA -3 vs. Bama
6. Essay (POTY): Chargers -3 @ Raiders
If I lose this pick it better be that tie game scenario that exists and both teams kneel the whole game to make the playoffs.
I simply believe the Chargers are the better team and will prove it in a playoff play in game. The Chargers have certainly had some what the fuck moments (losing to Houston for one), but the Raiders would probably not be in the position they are tonight without some extremely luck on their side (catching multiple teams during COVID outbreak weeks for example).
The Chargers are a few weeks removed from their COVID outbreak and seem to be back at full strength. Their offense is much better than the Raiders and despite the flaws on their defense, I don't think Carr is going to be able to keep up with Herbert if this becomes an offensive shootout.
The big win by the Raiders last week to get them in this position screams letdown this week. I love Staley's aggressiveness and can't wait to hear the announcers talk about how they would not have made that fourth down decision, as those decisions propel the Chargers to the playoffs and get me a hit on this pick of the year.
AP: Alabama +3 vs Georgia
ReplyDeleteBears +5.5 vs Vikings
Saints -3.5 @ Falcons
Seahawks +6.5 @ Cardinals
Niners +4.5 @ Rams
***Packers -3.5 @ Lions
GB doesn’t need a win here and it will feel like a late preseason game. Since they have a bye in week 1 of the playoffs, all active starters will play some portion of the game today. Coaches and players are on the same page with this. Some personal motivations will add to the fun: LB Preston Smith needs just 1 sack to earn a $750K incentive and increase his base salary by $500K (this is the guy who voluntarily did a base pay restructure with added incentives to lower his cap). Davante Adams needs just 22 receiving yards to own the single season franchise record. The makeshift O-line is getting a couple of key guys back from significant injury, including their all-pro LT out for a year, and they’ll need to put in some reps. The Lions of course have nothing to play for except pride.
Good luck everybody, it's been fun!
ReplyDeleteAP Georgia -3 over Alabama — fool me twice, etc
Seahawks +6.5 over Cardinals
Bears +5.5 over Vikings
Bucs -8 over Panthers
Browns -6 over approximately half of the Bengals
Essay Saints -3.5 over Falcons — Divisional road game with a hook! But a meaningful game for the Saints and almost an anti-meaningful game for the Falcons, who ought to be playing for draft position. #16 vs #27 in weighted DVOA, which isn’t too bad. The only way for the whole thing to suddenly become irrelevant to the Saints midway through is if the 49ers start blowing the Rams out, which I’m obviously hoping doesn’t happen.
It has been a great year of Cheddar picks (albeit mostly not on my part). Congratulations to all the playoff contenders, and thanks to all for indulging my occasional spreadsheet infelicities.
Vikings -5.5
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +6.5
Titans -10
49ers +4.5
AP: Bama +3
Essay: Bucs -8
News Flash: Tom Brady is competetive and likes to break records. Per ESPN, Brady needs 120 passing yards to break the Buccaneers' record (5,109, set in 2019 by Jameis Winston) and 246 passing yards to set his career high (5,235 in 2011). He also needs one more passing TD to break the Bucs' single-season record (40, set by Brady last season). Ahhhhhhh, he wants those records whether he says he does or not. The NFL purposely flexed this game to the late afternoon slot so that the Bucs, Rams and Cardinals, all fighting for the #2 seed, were playing at the same time. Brady will put it all on the field today if at the very least to show the NFL the Bucs are no joke heading into the playoffs after the AB fiasco and poor showing last weekend. The Panthers are ending a dissappointing, injury-plagued season and just want to get home healthy and in time to grab a few cold ones and watch the Chargers-Raiders tie. Bucs by 21. SKOL!
Forgot to give a big, big thank you to the committee and all the participants this year!! So great to have Cheddar back and I look forward to it being a constant, frustrating staple on football weekends for years to come. SKOL!
Delete1. Raiders +3
ReplyDelete2. Jags + 1 million
3. Steelers +3.5
4. Titans -10
5.49ers +4.5
AP/ESSAY Georgia. Writing tomorrow
OK so I will just write it now. First off in a rematch game I will take the loser of the first game. Even when I shouldn't, say in the case of CHiefs-Raiders. However, Alabama's win in the first meeting set up for the Tide perfectly. First, Satan (not a typo) got to play the aggrieved disrespected card and amp his players up. 2nd Gergia had been rolling but needed a true test and in actuality a wake-up call. Both were received loud and clear. Georgia has been truly dominant all season. THis defense will show up against the Tide. Granted the Tide have truly dominated Georgia in a bad way since 2008, but this will be the next power (like CLemson a few years ago) where they finally get to Alabama and the national championship.
DeleteSaints -3.5 over Falcons
ReplyDeleteBucs -8 over Panthers
Ravens -3.5 over Steelers
Raiders +3 over Chargers
Jets +16 over Bills
Essay: Bama +3 over UGA
I know it's hard to beat a team twice, but it's NEVER been hard for Bama to beat Georgia. Add in the fact that Nick Saban with extra time to prepare for a CFP game is one of the surest bets in sports (except against transcendent QBs like Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, and Cardale Jones), and this line is really hard to wrap my brain around. Even if UGA wins, they're definitely not going to blow Bama out. The three possible options here are: Bama in a blowout, Bama close, or UGA close. So I'm comfortable taking my chances that Bama won't lose by more than 2. Roll tide!
Picks for Squeekyclean (again submitted by email in time):
ReplyDeleteRegulars:
Seahawks
Raiders
Jaguars
Falcons
Niners
All play/Essay: Georgia.
Really bungled up this contest this year due to poor contest management, so these seem to be mostly for the weekly prize. Love Georgia in this title game. The drop to -3 from the SEC title game 6 in which Bama had a motivational edge (and Georgia was excessively flat) is not warranted. There are definitely concerns with Saban v Kirby, but on field results, eye test, and the set up imo favor Georgia. Georgia used the SECC debacle to reorient themselves and came out and delivered an absolute shit canning to Michigan (who was overrated but still it was impressive). They are now hyper focused and revenge is a prime motivator in college sports even in a winner take all championship game. Even in the SECC title game, Georgia was creeping back in prior to the pick 6. If they don't get behind this time, they should control the game and come out on top. This is their year.