Cheddar Bay Week 17: Browns -3.5 at Steelers
COLLEGE PICKS (one mandatory)
--Stay on top of cancellations and replace as needed
UNC -10 (vs So Carolina)
Tenn -6 (vs Purdue)
Mich St -2.5 (vs Pitt)
Wisconsin -6 (vs ASU)
Wake Forest -14.5 (vs Rutgers)
Wash St -7.5 (vs Cent Mich)
Bama -13.5 (vs Cincy)
Georgia -7 (vs Georgia)
Kentucky -3 (vs Iowa)
Ohio State -4.5 (vs Utah)
Ole Miss -1.5 (vs Baylor)
Kansas St -3.5 (vs LSU)
WFT +3.5
ReplyDeleteNE -15.5
Tenn -3.5
GB -6.5
AP - Browns +3.5
Essay - OSU -4.5 over Utah
Fresh off my losing POTY gamble, I’m looking to close out a lost Cheddar year by finding some respectability. I’m still not sure who the league’s truly elite teams are - at least when it comes to laying a ton of points. There’s still a great chance the Bengals are either a top AFC seed or sitting out the playoffs.
While it’s tempting to take Big Ben’s final stand against “Back Against the Wall” Baker, we’ll go with an upset OSU team looking to hook some new recruits.
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ReplyDeleteAP & Essay: Steelers +3.5 v Browns
ReplyDelete1: Bengals +6 v Chiefs
2: Ravens +3.5 v Rams
3: Dolphins +3.5 @ Titans
4: Tennessee -6 v Purdue
5: Kentucky -3 v Iowa
I'm running the "God Hates Cleveland", emotional hedge parlay this week. Cleveland needs Cincy to lose to a rolling KC team. They need the Ravens to lose to the stronger Rams team. And they need to go out and beat a Steelers team I've watched every week since Halloween and said "How the fuck did they lose to this shit-ass team?". So the Ratbirds get the Rams game moved up to 10a PST. because the NFL will do what they can for Baltimore. And Cincy gets KC at home as the Chiefs get a slight breather after being the only AFC team to clinch a playoff birth while holding a 1-game lead for the bye. Those definitely point to a take the points scenario.
And finally in Big Ben's last game at Heinze Field, where he has absolutely owned the Steelers' closest geographic rival, the Browns grab more than a field goal? What have we seen from Cleveland that convinces you they can score enough points to beat anyone by more than a field goal? The Browns have beaten exactly 3 teams by more than 6-points all season. Houston and Chicago in weeks 2 & 3 and Cincinnati in what appears to be the flukiest of fluke results in week 9, damned near 2 months ago. The only game the Browns managed a spread greater than 6 in that span was when Bill Belichick dawg-walked his old franchise.
So you should expect a close game, decided by less than a field goal and the Browns are trying a world where they can rely on one of their 3 kickers. Because no one has ever said, "When you have 3 kickers, you have none." But someone should say it. So Big Ben in his swan-song where the 3 sewers meet is the play this week.
Wisco -6
ReplyDeleteWhatever the line for the Notre Dame game, I'm taking ND to cover.
DeleteESPN has it at -1 for ND, so I'll go with that.
ND -1
(note to the committee, if this is a game that I cannot choose, please advise before Sunday so I can pick another game...gracias)
Texans +12
DeletePackers -6.5
AP: Steelers +3.5
Essay: Seahawks -6.5
Goff out. Lockett back. Could be Russell's last game as a Seachicken. Both these teams are playing for pride and not much else. Lions have already do a good job of ruining their shot at the #1 draft pick, but I think they lay down a bit so they can at least secure a top 3 pick. Lions are 10-5 against the spread this year and 9-2 when getting at least four points, but the Lions train stops here. Chickens by 10 to send Russell out with a warm, fuzzy feeling. SKOL!
Wisconsin - 6
ReplyDelete
DeleteDolphins +3.5 Essay
The betting headline and this game is the dolphins have somehow lost seven in a row before winning seven in a row. And, that of those seven wins, only one has been against a team with a winning record. 6-1 against the spread during that stretch. Good on them for taking care of business. They get another chance today, against the Tennessee team that as frequently looks like a team lacking direction without Derrick Henry. Unless he reappears in the sideline today I think you'll see another scatter shot performance from Ryan tannehill, who has the revenge angle and homefield, but little else to help him.
Ravens +5.5
DeleteEagles -3.5
Seahawks - 6.5
DeleteTrying to get five points the hard way this week.
DeleteSteelers +3.5
At the end of the first quarter I'd say this game is a crime against humanity.
DeleteNew Year's Eve picks .... good riddance 2021, stay safe everyone
ReplyDeleteRutgers +14.5
Michigan +7
Browns -3.5
DeleteJets +13.5
Eagles -3.5 (essay)
Bengals +5
I like the Eagles here. They’re heading in the right direction and I think are still alive in the playoff hunt. They’ve won 4 out of their last 5 including a win over WFT a couple of weeks ago. WFT is stuck in rebuilding mode and I fear will be that way until new ownership comes in. Three losses in a row, internal disarray, and nothing to play for don’t point to a W. I’d expect the Eagles to be a contender for the top NFC East spot next year. I can’t say the same for the WFT (by then should have a proper name) or the football Giants.
1. Alabama -13.5 vs. Cincinnati
ReplyDelete2. UGA -7 vs. Michigan
3. Chiefs -5 @ Bengals
Delete4. Rams -3.5 @ Ravens
5. AP: Browns -3.5 @ Steelers
6. Essay: Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings
It's going to be a cold Sunday night in Green Bay. Minnesota is getting hit by COVID forcing their starting QB out of the game. Green Bay hasn't exactly looked unbeatable, but they're doing just enough to secure win after win.
I could see a run heavy game script from both teams, with Rodgers being the obvious difference in punching the ball in the end zone. Minnesota's secondary can be beat, so if the Packers decide to attack often and early this could get out of hand, but that doesn't seem to be their MO based on the Browns game that I saw.
Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -7 v. Michigan
All favorites today
DeleteBears -6 vs. Giants
Chiefs -5 @ Bengals
Bills -14.5 vs Falcons
Packers -6.5 vs Vikings
***What strange times we are in. It’s like being in a dream, when nothing familiar looks quite right. Grateful the powers that be at the NFL are making it work, and same to the biscuit guys on the committee here at Cheddar Bay. We really do appreciate your efforts.
Anyway, the Packer game. Both teams are still playing for something this late in the season. In GB’s case it’s obviously the #1 seed with all its perks in the playoffs that, let’s face it, they really need in order to get to the grand finale. But fans around here, including myself, are feeling like this may be the last chance in a while for this city. There aren’t a lot of superstars on this team, but the big 2 very well may not be back next year. The run defense was exposed badly last week by the Browns and the Vikes will take advantage. But Minnesota has no strength against the pass, and I feel a monster game out of #12 Sunday night. He loves the prime time slot, loves the freezing cold winter games in beautiful Lambeau. Like my 91 year old Dad says, that’s when the best fans show up.
Hey CLTIL -- in case you see this before 8:15, you haven't picked the all play! For the rest I have followed what I think is the generally accepted practice of considering the picks in the order they were listed, meaning that the Bills pick is the one that was not counted.
DeleteWake -14.5 over Rutgers
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteChargers -6.5 over Broncos
DeleteRams -3.5 over Ravens
Fins 3.5 over Titans
Essay: Packers -6.5 over Vikings
One of the true miracles of this season is that it took 17 weeks for both Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins to catch the COVID. Fortunately for the Packers, their unvaccinated QB already missed a game. Alas, we are here. Frigid cold turf, Sean Manion starting for the Vikes (amazingly, this is his third NFL start, all in Week 17s). Pack are rolling, and will keep it going as they look to clinch their #1 seed.
Changed my pick on the AP to Steelers +3.5
DeleteBama -13.5 vs. CIncy
ReplyDeleteOSU -4.5 vs Utah
Steelers +3.5 vs Browns
Georgia -7 vs Michigan
Bengals +5 vs KC
First off this is the fun scenario where both teams are due for a dud. THe Bengals come off their "historical" (according to espn) offensive performance and now lead the division. KC has been rolling for the last month and again has clinched the AFC West. A division leader fighting to retain its lead and they get five points. SIgn me up. This game also may have a bit of fun with 41 degree rain scheduled at kickoff. SO that definitely should impact the ability of Burrows and Mahomes to sling the ball around. Just another reason that this may end up being a low-scoring snoozefest where one team wins by a field goal. Im guessing this is in the 19-16 or 21-17 range.
central michigan +7.5 @ washington st
ReplyDeletego kc!
Deletecolts -6.5
eagles -3.5
titans -3.5
rams -3.5
browns -3.5
Michigan +7 vs Georgia
ReplyDeleteOhio St. -4 vs Utah
49ers -12 vs Texans
Chargers -6.5 vs Broncos
Wow what a time to hit a Lobsterfest. Love it. It just seems like the easiest path forward for me to bet against the Broncos. I don't have anything personal towards Vic Fangio or anyone on their team, I just continue to not respect much of what they have going on over there to make me think that they are going to win any games the rest of the year. Chargers looking forward to postseason and need this, chargers have players coming off the covid list while Broncos have players going on it leading up to this game seems like a no brainer!
Cards +5.5 vs Cowboys
Steelers +3.5 vs Browns
Ohio State -4.5 (Utah)
ReplyDeletePatriots -15.5 (Jags)
Chiefs -5 (Bengals)
Rams -3.5 (Ravesn)
Browns -3.5 (Steelers)
**PLAY OF THE YEAR**
Eagles -3.5 (at WFT)
While I have flopped this season, I can assure you that I see this one clearly and as a point of pride I will hit my essay and correspondingly unload my entire bovada account that remains heading into Sunday. WFT just got humiliated by the Cowboys on Monday, ending any postseason chances. Meanwhile, Eagles have a lot to play for and have won 3 in a row (including a 10 point win against a WFT that had a lot more to play for two weeks ago). And what has led to this Eagles resurgence? Yes, a soft schedule hasn't hurt, but their smashmouth style offense with a now-decent Hurts seems to be working. Now couple that with a stadium that will be half Philly fans to negate homefield and an unmotivated WFT that has Covid problems everywhere. Eagles 24, WFT 0
I thought I was too late for this but apparently the game isn't until 5, so I will take the contrarian option of Utah +4.5 over OSU for my college pick. Win or lose, at least it appears the game will definitely be played, so this is already an improvement on last week.
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Steelers +3.5 over Browns
DeleteCowboys -5.5 over Cardinals
Eagles -3.5 over WFT
Dolphins +3.5 over Titans
POTY Essay Packers -6.5 over Vikings — This line doesn’t remotely take the QB situation into account, and I am dishonorably attempting to take advantage of that fact. Sean Mannion out in the cold, at night, in what could once again be Aaron Rodgers’ last home game, and the Packers only need to win by a TD… #8 vs #15 in weighted DVOA… at this late stage of the season, and with me approximately 20 points out of the playoffs, let’s just go ahead and POTY this one. Also my atrocious run of essay picks this year started with the Packers in W1 (when they got annihilated by James Winston) so this has a pleasing sort of symmetry to it.
College play: Ole Miss
ReplyDeleteBalance of picks (again received by email in plenty of time):
DeleteRegulars:
Eagles
Bengals
Ravens
Giants
All play: Clowns
Essay: Bengals. Bengals have been weak at home although having a great season. Chiefs have been on a tear mainly buoyed by a defense that is supposedly good now. I'm not sure, still don't buy it. Huge spot for Bengals and chiefs are due for some regression. Early line move up here looked like a plus for Chiefs but when limits expanded mid and late week the Bengals got pummeled and number is cratering. I really don't love this one but I don't love much on this card - it's the best I can come up with, Bengals for essay.
Wish I had a POTY or Pick of the Decade. Burrow in must win game at home getting 6? Woof. Biggest bet of the year going in.
ReplyDeleteLSU +3.5 over KSU
ReplyDeleteFalcons +14.5 over Bills
WFT +3.5 over Eagles
Bengals +5 over Chiefs
Packers -6.5 over Vikings
Essay: Steelers +3.5 over Browns
Going with the tried and true emotional hedge for this week's essay. With it being Ben's last game at Heinz Field, I can already see this game becoming a ref show, which is something the Browns are all too familiar with (see the Christmas day debacle in Green Bay). Yes, everything on paper tells me the Browns should be able to handle the Steelers this week. The Steelers looked moribund in KC last week and the Browns should be close to full strength after two weeks with the MASH squad. But Ben has haunted the Browns (and me) for nearly two decades, so seeing him suit up against the Browns will always strike the fear of God in me, last year's Wild Card game notwithstanding. With the AFC North on the line, I'm fully prepared for him to break my heart one more time.