Cheddar Bay Week 16: Ravens +2.5 at Bengals
AFC North in the balance. Good luck everyone, have a great Christmas/holiday/etc!
BOWL GAMES (one play minimum - bowl games thru Tuesday 12/28)
- Armed Forces Bowl: Army -7 (vs Missouri)
- Frisco Football Classic: Miami Ohio -2.5 (vs North Texas)
- Gasparilla Bowl: Florida -7 (vs UCF)
- Hawaii Bowl: Memphis -8.5 (vs Hawaii)
- Camellia Bowl: Georgia St -5.5 (vs Ball St)
- Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan -7 (vs Nevada)
- Military Bowl: Boston College -3 (vs ECU)
- Birmingham Bowl: Auburn -2 (vs Houston)
- First Responder Bowl: Louisville -1 (vs Air Force)
- Liberty Bowl: Miss St -9.5 (vs Texas Tech)
- Holiday Bowl: NC State -1 (vs UCLA)
- Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota -4.5 (vs West Virginia)
Titans +3.5 vs Niners
ReplyDeleteHey Merry Christmas!
DeleteAP: Bengals -2.5 vs Ravens
Colts +0.5 @ Cardinals
Pats -2.5 vs. Bills
***Packers -7 vs. Browns
Well this is not exactly how I wanted these 2 great teams to meet, but happy they are even playing at this point. Luckily there is even less to do in Green Bay than Cincinnati (no really), so Covid has not been as much of a factor week to week. Bummed that MVS is out because he’s so fun and also takes a little attention away from Adams, but we know that #12 likes to spread it around. Aaron Rodgers has practiced far less in the past few weeks than Mayfield but it sure doesn’t seem to matter - he just doesn’t rust. Special teams may play up to their potential for a Christmas miracle. Packers have been playing most of the season without 4 of their Pro Bowlers from last year, and making it work.
NC State -1
DeleteHi!! this game is cancelled try to pick the upcoming Minny / West Virginia game
DeleteThanks Nick!! I'll go with Minn -4.5 also.
DeleteAP: Ravens +2.5 @ Bengals: When in doubt, take the points? Also a hedge
ReplyDelete1: Dolphins +3 @ Saints
2: Bills +2.5 @ Patriots
3: Jaguars +1.5 @ Jets
4: Boston College -3 v East Carolina: Gotta play a college game so I'm taking a well coached one.
Essay: Broncos +1 @ Raiders
I really hate this slate of games. Between all the Covid and just dogs of games, it was hard picking something I liked this week. This 1 popped for me for a couple of reasons. The Broncos were favorites last week agaisnt the Bengals while the Raiders were underdogs/favorites/underdogs again against the Covid-depleted Browns. Broncos did what was expected and lost to the Bengals, while the Raiders barely beat a Nick Mullens lead Cleveland squad thanks to their kicker being able to hit a 48-yarder that Cleveland's could not. When these teams met earlier this year, Las Vegas won by 10. 2 things on that, with this Vegas team that might as well have been in 2018. Secondly, in the rematch with pretty even teams, take the team that lost before. So the Broncos should be graded as the better team and I'm getting the point in this one, so Broncos for the essay it is.
Since I lost my college pick to Covid, my replacement will be
Delete4: Mississippi St. -9.5 v. Texas Tech: I can't wait to see Mike Leach take out his anger at Texas Tech's administration against a bunch of kids who were in elementary and preschool when he was exited from the school.
happy holidays all!
ReplyDeleteHawaii +8.5 vs Memphis
UCLA +1.5 vs NC State
Bengals -2.5 vs Ravens
Clowns +7.5 vs Packers
Dolphins +3 vs Saints
Raiders -1 vs Broncos
It's a week to week league and wow are both of these locker rooms in different shape. I'll take the red hot raiders coming off their full fledged comeback to beat the clowns over the Broncos who just watched their QB get carted off the field. I'm not under any assumption that Denver is very good and when they lose their starting QB, seems like a good enough reason to come out a little empty and start planning the off season. Raiders DBs seem to be taking the seahawks approach and committing fouls on every play which is a good way to play the pass game.
Since Hawaii Memphis for cancelled I'll take the chiefs over the Steelers thanks!
DeleteWith UCLA NC State off I will take Minny -6 vs West Virginia
Delete-4.5 that is
Deletetitans -1 at home
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteNevada +7
Cardinals -0.5
Eagles -10
Pats -2.5
AP - Baltimore +2.5
Essay - GB -7 over Cleveland ******POTY**********
The Browns’ defense has contributed some gritty efforts while the offense has been stuck in the Shurmur Zone. However, this same defense hasn’t faced a top passing game in a long while. Missing Clowney, Takk, JJ3, Newsome and Harrison while Myles is hurt is a bad omen. There’s no way this 13 point a game offense can relieve any of the pressure. This could get ugly.
Merry Christmas!!!
Packers -7
ReplyDeleteAP: Bengals -2.5
DeleteChargers -9.5
Dolphins +3
Essay: Jets -1.5
Gophers -4.5
I'm really not a fan of any of these matchups this week, so I'm taking the one that seems like it will come down to a coin flip. Both these teams stink, both teams probably want the #1 pick and both these teams are 4-10 against the spread this year, which is the worst mark in the league. They do both have some pretty handsome QBs though...I think
you all know my feelings on Sunshine at this point (he's dreamy). These two teams have a combined record of 53-135 since 2016...can you imagine? I won't be watching any of this game, so I'll take a shot at the home team to win by a saftey. SKOL!
Merry Christmas!
ReplyDeleteAP, Bengals -2.5
Browns 7.5
Going to elevate the Bengals as my essay. Starting for the Ravens is Josh Johnson, whose name Browns legend Joe Thomas literally learned in the huddle during a game. Ravens already a flawed team, now in deep crap. I expect Cinci to roll, even with their decided coaching disadvantage, just to set up a Browns win at Pittsburgh and showdown for the AFCN against Cinci in Cleveland Week 18.
DeleteBills 2.5 over Pats
DeleteChargers -9.5 over Texans
Chiefs -8 over Pitt
Miss State -9.5 over TT
Ucla over Nc State
ReplyDeleteBengals -2.5 over the Ravens
Green Bay -7.5 over BRowns
Miami +3 vs New orleans
Colts over Cardinals
Allright hopefully 3rd time posting the essay is the charm. The COlts are rolling. Jonathon Taylor is leading a rushing attack that is going to play right into the gameplan for beating the Cardinals. It took the NFL a solid 10 weeks but they finally figured out how to deal with Kyler Murray and the air raid. Murray has shown the league that if you can get him off his rhythm, you can get him in a funk early and its harder for him to turn things around, but if you let him get his rhythm that offense will roll all day. Hopkins true value has also been shown as when he went down, the offense has not looked the same. Carson Wentz is going to hand off a ton, throw just enough to keep the chains moving and the Cardinals on the bench. Of course the Cardinals will be looking to turn things around after their disaster at the hands of world-beater Jared Goff but the COlts are rolling and will continue to do so.
Georgia St -5.5
ReplyDeleteCardinals -0.5
DeleteBengals -2.5
DeleteVikings +3
DeleteEagles -10
Chicago +6.5 - Essay
DeleteBoth pretty uninspiring teams, with offenses ranked Chicago #29 and Seattle #30, and the Seahawks haven't looked much better even with Russell Wilson, who now has a sore ankle in addition to his finger injury. The only bright spot for the Bears is Chicago has the #8 ranked overall defense, and is #4 against the pass. Nick Foles is getting the start, I don't see that as better or worse than Justin Fields. Unfortunately this line didn't stay at 7, but I'm still liking the Bears to cover either winning or losing by a FG.
Merry Christmas all, Packers -7 over Browns (after last week's essay I am still exactly wrong on the Packers this year)
ReplyDeleteAll-Play/Essay Bengals -2.5 over Ravens — Too many “checks notes” jokes on the game day roster, starting with Josh Johnson, who is *not* a Mike White-esque unheralded youngster that is about to make me look like a fool for writing him off, he is a 35-year-old was apparently signed off the street 11 days ago. The Bengals have been hit less heavily with the COVID stick and are right in the mix in the division; given my essay record this season, I say this with all due trepidation, but the Burrow-Chase connection should be able to put this one away by at least a FG.
DeleteChargers -9.5 over Texans
Lions +6 over Falcons
Vikings +3 over Rams
NC State -1 over UCLA for the last biscuit
DeleteAt least this is a new way of being outsmarted by Chip Kelly.
DeletePlay 1: Arizona Cardinals
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Cincinnati Bungles
KC Chiefs
DeleteNew England Patriots
(Two more bowls and essay coming)
Last picks (received by email in plenty of time):
DeleteRegular: Miss St.
Essay: West Virginia. Minny had a super strong finish to the regular season and was definitely one of my betting favorites. West Vag on the other hand flopped around the whole year and was anything but impressive. So why West Vag? For starters, looking to fade most of the big ten in these bowls. As a secondary consideration, this number looks low given West Vag's 6-6 record and real lack of impressive performances (and lots of really weak ones). Next, this is Doege's swan song and I tend to favor senior (non high NFL prospect) QBs on their way out the door. And finally, this is the last game available to me so it has to be the essay!
No essay week
ReplyDeleteBengals -2.5
Da Bears +6.5 (Essay)
Cowboys -10.5
Chargers -9.5
ECU +3
Louisville +1
Replacement pick for ECU and their canceled bowl game (thanks, Covid):
DeleteNevada +7
1. Western Michigan -7 vs. Nevada
ReplyDelete2. MS St. -9.5 vs. Texas Tech
3. Falcons -6 vs. Lions
4. Dolphins +3 @ Saints
5. All-Play: Bengals -2.5 vs. Ravens
6. Essay: Bills +2.5 @ Pats
This isn't going to be a repeat of the last time they met where weather conditions dictated everything. Even though the Bills defense gave up all those rushing yards points were at a premium. I don't like that Allen is losing two weapons in Davis and Beasley due to COVID today, but I'll still bet on his talent to create plays for the next guys up with his legs, or just do the job himself.
The Pats are missing part of their rushing attack in Stevenson, who is one of their more physical runners, so even if they want to reinforce the run today they don't have as many fresh bodies to do so, with Harris being banged up as of late.
Ultimately I think the Bills are coming out with a purpose today and will win this game.
BOWL: UCLA +1 (vs NCSt)
ReplyDeleteWFT +10.5 (vs Cowboys)
Patriots -2.5 (vs Bills)
Jets -1.5 (vs jags)
AP: Bengals -2.5
Essay: Vikings
This is a really tough spot for the Rams. Their previous game was postponed to Tuesday, thus this is a very short week for them. After the game vs Seattle, they have to prepare for the next game with just 4 days of prep time and travel across the country. This is a tough situation to perform well in especially when playing a road game in a tough environment, vs an underrated Vikings team that is battling to make the playoffs. I think the Vikings will find a way to win this game with Theilen back and now Rams LT Whitworth on COVID list
With the holiday bowl being canceled, I’ll replace UCLA with Minnesota -4 1/2
DeleteBengals -2.5 over Ravens
ReplyDeleteVikings +3 over Rams
Jags +1.5 over Jets
Bills +2.5 over Pats
NC State -1 over UCLA
DeleteEssay: Dolphins +3 over Saints
Tua has rebounded nicely since the Dolphins' 1-7 start, which is particularly impressive given the Deshaun Watson-to-Miami rumors that dominated the trade deadline. Miami is in the thick of the wild-card race, and while New Orleans is too, they have to trot out QB4 Ian Book on Monday night. Coming out of Notre Dame, Book's scouting report essentially boiled down to "less athletic Tim Tebow," which means the Saints' offense will have to depend entirely on Alvin Kamara. That's not a death sentence, but I don't expect such a one-dimensional approach to result in more than a 3-point victory over the surging Dolphins.
New college pick on account of the Holiday Bowl's cancellation: Miss. St. -9.5 over TTU
Delete