Cheddar Bay Week 15: Patriots +2.5 @ Colts - SATURDAY NIGHT
NFL Saturday, one of my personal favorite days of the sports calendar, is upon us and the schedule is strong. We start with Browns down like 20 players and their coach battling for a playoff spot against the Raiders. Then we get Pats/Colts, two teams that were left for dead with 1-3 starts. However, the Pats are now arguably AFC favorites after seven straight impressive wins, while the Colts are currently a playoff team after winning four of five. So get your holiday errands knocked out early and make sure your NFL Network subscription is up to date. Saturday!
COLLEGE LINES (one play mandatory)
- Bahamas Bowl: Toledo -10.5 (vs Middle Tennessee State)
- Tailgreeter Cure Bowl: Costal Carolina -10.5 (vs Northern Illinois)
- Boca Raton Bowl: Appalachian State -3 (vs Western Kentucky)
- New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State -11.5 (vs UTEP)
- Independence Bowl: BYU -7 (vs UAB)
- Lendingtree Bowl: Liberty -9.5 (vs Eastern Michigan)
- LA Bowl: Oregon State -7.5 (vs Utah State)
- New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana -5 (vs Marshall)
- Myrtle Beach Bowl: Tulsa -8.5 (vs Old Dominion)
got myself worked up for the weekend, so gonna drop an essay play on TNF
ReplyDeleteESSAY: Chargers +3 (vs Chiefs)
Chargers are 8-5 team with two last second three point losses to SB contenders Patriots and Cowboys, and then a loss to Denver that had 14 days off (and I think I heard Fangio is really good in those spots). Yes, they have the most WR drops in the NFL but fact is their have good WR, so that cannot last as a crushing factor. They have an elite QB, elite WR's, elite coaching, and elite pass defense. And yes, they are 31st in the league in rush defense, but it's been better in past few weeks AND nobody thinks of Chiefs as the crushing running team. Meanwhile, Chiefs win streak has come over some duds (Raiders, Raiders, Giants, no Rodgers Pack, dinged up Cowboys). And Chiefs best defensive player, Chris Jones looks out with Rona.
Great spot for Chargers. LA 30, KC 27
Back to back weeks I lost essay +3.5 (Bills) or +3 (Chargers) where the cover seemed a lock in the 4th Q, but got ruined by TD in OT. UGH.
DeleteFINAL TICKET:
Essay: Chargers +3 (vs Chiefs) - LOST
AP: Colts -2.5 (vs Pats)
BYU -7 (vs UAB)
Panthers +10.5 (at Bills)
Jags -4.5 (vs Texans)
Ravens +5.5 (vs Packers)
Lets start with Pats +2.5 over Colts and WKU +3 over App State
ReplyDeleteCardinals -13 over Lions essay
DeleteJags -4.5 over Texans
Browns +2.5 over Raiders
Packers -5.5 over Ravens
Trying to target some games where the line has moved favorably since Thursday. But for the Cardinals I'm playing that straight. The Lions are drawing dead at this point. Now that they have the win and are out their two best offensive players, there's not much they can do to keep up with teams that are even mildly effective on offense. The Broncos aren't even that and they cruised to a big win.
Cardinals need this one after their dud on Monday. Detroit isn't exactly a road nightmare for opponents, and they don't play outside. Also as we saw last week, Dan Campbell doesn't play conservative and will take chances to win the game even when it means giving up a blowout if they don't convert. I feel comfortable projecting a 17+ point win here.
Starting with:
ReplyDeleteChargers
All play: Colts
College: UAB
Adding in Broncos
DeleteLast two/essay will be monday/tuesday games
Regular: Eagles
DeleteEssay: Seahawks - Essay probably should have been the Colts, or maybe the Chargers (even though it was a loser), but I'll go with the super ugly and out of it Shithawks this week. In general, I hate the Seahawks. Their offense is plodding with a bunch of quails from Wilson. They cant run the ball. Defense is suspect. Whatever, nothing to like. On the other side is the Rams who have been stumbling about, but suddenly are back to full on contender status after beating the now suddenly struggling Cards on Monday Night. I still think they blow. I'll play that feeling with the Seahawks for the essay.
College Oregon State
ReplyDeletePatriots +2.5 over COlts
Chargers +3 vs KC
Packers -5.5 over Ravens
Essay: Cleveland +2.5 over Raiders
Here comes the Jinx. Cleveland is going to beat the Raiders with no coach and half a team because the entire Raiders team has clearly quit on their season. Maybe the Raiders can fire up the home team by having another super smart meeting on the logo pre-game. Carr has regressed back to standard Carr mediocrity and as much as the offense was on fire early this season, that was extinguished with the fire Ruggs caused at 3am. THe defense is making bonehead mistakes and penalties on 3rd downs that extend drives and Jonathan Abrams might be the worst pass defending DB I've seen in years (as a longtime Raider fan that speaks volumes). Look the Raiders are clearly limping with one eye and a peg leg towards another offseason where the entire front office and coaching staff need to be blown out. THank god Gruden got to use all those draft picks.
Chefs -3 over LAC
ReplyDeleteGreat Googly Moogly!
Pats 2.5 all play
DeleteTulsa -8.5 over ODU
DeleteCowboys -10.5 over NYG
DeleteEagles -7 over WFT
Essay: GB -5.5 over Baltimore
I view the Ravens as one of the best 3 coaches teams in the NFL. John Harbaugh has done wonders with a mash unit this year. But they do not stand a chance against the Pack, who are steamrolling teams and covering spreads like a championship team. No one on Baltimore could guard Donovan Peoples-Jones. Don’t see how much resistance they can put up against Davante Adams. Pack in a rout.
Toledo Rockets -10.5 Essay. Toledo returns to the Bahamas bowl to revenge their 2018 Bahama Bowl loss to FIU. Toledo is not as terrible as their 7-5 would lend one to believe-they almost beat Notre Dame, and 3 of their other loses were less than a score with a team who also made it to a bowl (except for a weird loss to Colorado early in the season). They seem to turn the ball over a lot, so maybe if they don't do that a bunch of times and keep running the ball around, they can cover. The main reason for my vote it is it the only college game with reveres line movement and Donbest listing Toledo as cold cold cold and MTS as hot hot hot. Seems like Vegas is trying to hide something.
ReplyDeleteOther votes
Coastal Carolina -10.5
Liberty -9.5
UAB + 7
Louisiana -5
Costal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois
ReplyDeleteBYU -7 v. UAB
Louisiana -5 v. Marshall
DeleteAP Pats +2.5 @ Colts
Vikings -3.5 @ Bears
***Packers -5.5 @ Ravens
Going with my boys again, 11-2 ATS and yes Vegas please continue to underestimate this team. The MVP versus the 3rd worst passing defense in the league should make for lots of passing yardage and points on Sunday, no need to depend on the fragile field goal unit. GB’s run game is very average and will be challenged with Baltimore’s #1 run defense, but maybe some unexpected production coming from the RBs at the right time. GB’s defense is confident and having fun. Anytime Baltimore takes the L is good with me.
Pittsburgh +1.5
ReplyDeleteMiami -10
Tampa -10.5
UAB +7
AP - Pats +2.5
Essay - Raiders -2.5
Media, fans, media who are basically fans, players and most of Twitter are going to expel a week’s worth of energy endlessly following the Browns’ Covid outbreak. Yes, it’s unfortunate another Covid wave is upon us and of course, it’s the Browns’ stupid luck that 20 players (as of now) are affected.
Surely, this breakout will be cited as the reason for the Browns’ shaky playoff hopes ultimately crumbling. However, this particular game - pre-outbreak - was the ultimate trap game for a sputtering Browns’ outfit that has no business playing into January.
Initially, I was thrilled to jump on Raiders +6.5 (which would have been a POTY candidate). But I’ll happily give up -2.5 as Derek Carr and Hunter Renfroe bleed the Browns secondary all game, while the Raiders rediscover their run game.
(Cut myself off…)
DeleteAnd let’s not discount a Raiders team that suddenly is aggrieved that their opponent has received an advantage with the game postponed. It’s a motivation league and all talk of the Raiders “season falling apart” will quickly end when the Browns’ horrid third-down issues re-emerge.
This will not end well for the Browns.
AP: Patriots +2.5 @ Colts
ReplyDelete1: BYU -7 v UAB
2: Louisiana -5 v Marshall
3: Giants +10.5 v Cowboys
4: Lions +13 v Cardinals
Essay: Bengals +2.5 @ Broncos
Talk about your overreaction lines. The Bengals made mistakes in a game last week against the 49ers, whose dline was a tough matchup, to build a hole they were lucky to recover to overtime before inevitably falling. The Broncos blew out the Lions fresh off their first win of the season, an obvious result that everyone should have seen coming. So in this case, I get what I think is the better team in a must win spot because of divsion competition and I get nearly a field goal worth of points? Too easy, so I'm probably wrong for some reason.
The All-Play has it all. Tom Brady. Peyton Manning. Crap I forgot it’s 2021. Not 2011.
ReplyDeletePats and points? Tempting, but i like the Colts at home -2.5
UTEP +11.5 Fresno St is ok, but not an 11.5 spot ok
Louisiana -5 (“home” game)
Falcons +9.5 (Essay)
Jags -4.5 (Ding dong the witch is dead?)
Utah St +7.5
At one point the Niners and Falcons were in the same NFC Western division. I think to align with the Braves being in the NL West for some weird reason. Thank goodness we had a realignment where both football conferences blew up to four divisions, removing these geographic oddities. Somehow the Falcons are near .500 despite all expectations of being terrible, with Matt Ryan now on the wrong side of 50. And somehow they’re 5-2 on the road? Who would have thought. I’m thinking a game decided by under a TD either way, so I’ll take ATL and just about two scores.
All play: Pats.
ReplyDeleteEssay New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State -11.5 (vs UTEP)
I'm looking at a UTEP that started out pretty remarkably -- for UTEP -- and now the wheels are fallen off. Started 6-1 and now lost last four of five, the only win against Rice. Fresno on the other hand has won their last five of six and the only loss was to Boise. Importantly, Fresno curb stomped weak opponents UNM and SJSU in the last games winning by about 30 over both. Fresno is a bit of a factory for the NFL and thus the expectation is that they'd recruit much better athletes than UTEP. I think that will tell. I am concerned about Fresno's coaching change but as much as anything, Im just due to hit an essay.
Lendingtree Bowl: Eastern Michigan +9.5 vs Liberty
LA Bowl: Utah State +7.5 vs Oregon State
Browns +2.5 vs Raiders
Titans -1.5 at Steelers
WKU +3
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteFalcons +9.5
DeleteBroncos -2.5
Packers -5.5
Saints +10.5 - essay
I feel like there's never been an NFL season with this many big two score lines, yet it feels like every team is somewhere between 6-7 and 8-5 going into this weekend. The Saints are 6-7, which in the NFC puts them firmly in the race for the last Wild Card spot. Last week the Saints broke a 5 game losing streak and Taysom Hill threw some passes, and sort of looked like a QB. Mostly it was the running game improved after getting Alvin Kamara back, going for 203 yards total, 73 of which belonged to HIll. Of course, that was against the Jets. But, Hill has now had several weeks to make the job his, and I think with their running game and underrated defense, as long as Hill doesn't throw 4 interceptions, the Saints can keep it within 10 points on the road.
1. AP: Colts -2.5 vs. Pats.
ReplyDelete2. Louisiana -5 vs. Marshall
Delete3. Vikings -3.5 @ Bears
Delete4. Falcons +9.5 @ 49ers
5. Rams -4.5 vs. Seahawks
6. Essay: Packers -5.5 @ Ravens
Do the Ravens even have a healthy CB right now? It certainty doesn't feel like they have one that is a capable starter at the very least. Aaron Rogers is one of the last QBs I'd want to be seeing if I was in the Ravens position. Add in Lamar is looking like a no go today and I am just not envisioning many paths to success for this Ravens team. Space will be plentiful for the Packers receivers, Rodgers is going to get them the ball, and the newfound dual rushing attack of Jones and Dillion will put the nail in the coffin as the game goes on.
ne + 2.5 @ colts ap
ReplyDeleteeastern michigan +9.5 v liberty - lendingtree bowl
jaguars -4.5 at home essay
Deletegiants +10.5 at home
rams -4.5 at home
bucs -10.5 at home
texans at jags has been referred to as the stupor bowl - okay. it's a match-up of bad teams playing bad foot ball. the texans are an organically bad team. it's a gift from the universe that the first post urban jags game is against the texans. darrell bevell (interim coach) is not the person to save the miserable situation in jacksonville, but maybe today marks the end of the decline. still to be determined if the team has their qb, but they're not as desperate as the texans to play for the draft pick. (jacksonvill will still pick plenty high) if half the stories are true about how much this coaching staff hated urban - today the team needs to show it to khan. shake-up games - always fun
give me jax jags -4.5
1. Oregon State -7.5
ReplyDelete2. Bengals +2.5
3. Ravens +5.5
4. Rams -4.5
All Play – Patriots +2.5
Essay – BYU -7
I don’t know a single thing about UAB but I know enough about BYU to know that this should be a rout. BYU, the honorary Pac-12 champion had to be pretty pissed after a 10 win season that they’re playing in the Bobby Boucher Louisiana Bowl Brought to you by Chuck’s Gator Farm. BYU has an athletic QB that can extend plays, long receivers that can go get the ball and an extremely underrated rushing attack led by Tyler Algeir who has the size that makes him a tough tackle each time. The defense has enough to keep teams at bay despite not being super special in any facet. Really I think this line in indicative of the disappointment BYU may have being in this bowl, but I’m confident that Kalani Sitake, with his big contract extension, will have the team ready to go and give UAB a beatdown to help prop up their preseason 2022 rankings. BYU big.
All-Play Pats +2.5 over Colts, college play BYU -7 over UAB.
ReplyDeleteCowboys -10.5 over Giants
DeleteRams -4.5 over Seahawks
Titans -1.5 over Steelers
Essay Packers -5.5 over Ravens -- It's the weirdest COVID week of the season so far and the Ravens have been reduced to a shadow of their former selves. Although Lamar Jackson has not quite been ruled out yet his ankle is going to be an issue if he makes it to the field. Rodgers against a depleted secondary sounds like a reasonable proposition -- I feel like I've been exactly wrong about the Packers all year, but hope springs eternal.
Old Dominion +8.5
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Colts -2.5
Steelers +1.5
DeleteDolphins -10
Ravens +5.5
Essay: Vikings -3.5
Back at it again with a Vikes cover. It was either this or taking the Ravens and I found it too hard to essay against Rodgers. He's on a mission, but I still like the Ravens to cover. Anyway, we all know Cuzzy's impressive MNF record sits at 1-9, but I'm sticking with my guy as he's 1-0 in his last one which was last year at Chicago. I told my buddies this week that I'd be perfectly fine with the Vikings extending Cuzzy for a 4yr - $100M contract (in fact they should as it would bring his cap hit down from $40M to $25M) so they could focus on building an o-line an some semblance of a D. They all laughed at me and told me I was nuts. The Minny fan base is ready to get rid of Cuzzy, Zimmer and Spielman, and while I 100% agree with canning Zimmer (and probably Speilman) I think trading Cuzzy would be a big mistake. The Vikings have no plan B at QB (they drafted Kellon Mond in the 3rd round last year, but he's been inavtive every game so far). Also, rmember that Zimmer has sabatoged his QBs with six different offensive coordinators in the last six years. Cuzzy isn't the problem...it's Zim. That said, Zimmer know how to do just enough to keep his job and he'll do the same against the COVID ravished, lowly Bears. Vikings do the same thing they did against the Steelers. Jump out to a healthy lead to hang on by a thread...in this case the thread is a 31-27 victory. SKOL!
Canel the Ravans +5.5 above. No Lamar. I'll find a replacement.
DeleteWelp, I guess no Lamar didn't make a difference in the Ravens covering, but I'm left with one of two COVID matches. I heard Jalen is playing for the Eagles so let's take them for a bisciut to finish off the week(end) of football.
DeleteEagles -7
Tulsa -9 vs Old D
ReplyDeleteWFT +7 vs Eagles
Bengals +2.5 vs Broncos***essay
Surprised and impressed the broncos are sitting at 7-6, they didn't seem to be that good of a team when they came and played the browns a few months ago. Good for teddy Bridgewater staying healthy and leading a team in a playoff push. Having said that, I love taking Joey Burrow and getting points. Also Bengals have better running back in Mixon and I think he's going to have a big day.
Titans -1.5 vs Steelers
Jags -4.5 vs Texans
Tulsa -8.5 over ODU
ReplyDeleteBrowns +2.5 over Raiders
Jets +10 over Dolphins
Titans -1.5 over Steelers
Essay: Rams -4.5 over Seahawks
DeleteWent against the Rams in my last essay and failed, so I might as well try the opposite approach this week. This line moved last week after the Rams' spate of COVID positives, but moving the game to Tuesday has allowed them to reactivate OBJ and Darrell Henderson, among others. Predictably, Matthew Stafford has flourished in Sean McVay's offense, and with the Lions' shocking upset over the Cardinals, the Rams are suddenly primed to win the NFC West, provided they take care of business against the Seahawks tonight. They will.