Cheddar Bay Week 14: Army -7.5 vs Navy
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
AP: Navy +7.5
ReplyDelete(quick research shows Army has one by 8 points or more twice in 30 years)
NFL to follow....
Browns -2.5 (v Ravens)
DeleteBroncos -9 (v Lions)
Bears +12.5 (at Packers)
Rams +2.5 (at Cardinals)
Essay: Bills+3.5 (at Bucs)
Here are 6 of the Bucs 9 wins: Falcons, Falcons, Giants, Bears, Eagles, Dolphins. Forgive me if I am not inspired. Losses to Rams, Saints and WFT. And Tampa dealing with a bunch of injuries and AB still out for being a weirdo. Meanwhile, this is a huge bounce back spot for the the Bills, who were just shocked and humiliated by the way the Pats handled them on MNF. But lets think about that: 1) as everyone now crowns the Pats, the Bills were right there in a bad weather game; 2) and the Bills were a SB favorite just a few weeks ago. But it’s 80 degrees in Tampa and the Bills should be fully motivated, so I’d expect a different team. Bills 28, Bucs 20
I will take Army -7.5. Furthermore, I will not pick any other games this week. I respect our men and women in uniform and will not diminish their memory by forcing them to share the spotlight with non-troops who are simply paid to play a game. I have been told that paying someone to perform is less respectable than their performing for free.
ReplyDeleteNow, the people who have told me this did not seem to be communists before, but certainly I cannot argue with such an incisive critique of capitalism.
Broncos -9 over Lions - essay
DeleteChargers -10 over Giants
Bucs -3.5 over Bills
Packers -12.5 over Bears
Cardinals -2.5 over Rams
Yep taking all favorites for the late games. Lions got their win and they've been a tough out in most games, but this is going to be a league loss. They're at Denver and half the team has the flu, Swift is out, Hockenson is doubtful, so this is really shaping up for a flat performance. I just don't think the Lions will have it in them to give 100%, especially if they get down early. Broncos are obviously not great but look for a big day from Melvin Gordon. Easy two score win for Denver.
1) Steelers +3.5 @ Vikings
ReplyDeleteLet's upgrade that pick to my essay.
DeleteEssay) Steelers +3.5 @ Vikings
Vikings do nothing but play close games. And lose them. Pittsburg is not a good team, but they win close games. Minnesota's gonna run out a banged up Dalvin Cook (maybe) and be without LT Christian Darrisaw and All-Pro WR Adam Thielen. This line has already dropped to -3 in most places, so I'll take the valuable hook for a close game that somehow the Steelers win, because they always do.
So close to an absolute garbage back door cover. Oh well... onward...
DeleteAP) Navy +7.5 v Army
1) Football Team +4.5 v Cowboys
2) Browns -2.5 v Ravens
3) Falcons +2.5 @ Panthers
4) Bengals +1.5 v 49ers
vikings -3.5 at home
ReplyDelete(because we love the horn)
ride w bill belichick & mike lombardi
Deletenavy + 7.5 ap
nfl sunday
Deletesaints -5.5
bucs -3.5 (this is personal for tb12, he looooves to beat the bills)
broncos -9 (sorry dan campbell)
browns -2.5 essay
the easiest defense of this pick is that the line has moved to -3.0. Doesn't make it a sharp pick, but it underscores the fact that vegas knows something. the browns have been quiet during the bye, which indicates stefanski has re-gained the team's attention. maybe with a some rest baker has healed a little. the brown's injuries are troublesome but can be overcome. might miss the sneaky good hubbard. however, the ravens have the urgency of a team on the edge of big problems. lamar jackson is as likely to be the mvp as the dunce. the browns defense should be able to at least frustrate jackson, shut down his run and he has no throw. keep baltimore to field goals. and give me....
browns 2.5 at home.
Vikings -3.5 vs Steelers
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletechanged my mind, will go with Army -7.5 for the AP.
DeleteBears +12.5 @ Packers
DeleteCowboys -4.5 vs WFT
Giants +10 @ Chargers
***Bills +3.5 @ Bucs - - essay skip week
Army -7.5
ReplyDeleteSeahawks -7.5 vs Texans
Cowboys -4.5 vs WFT
Saints -5.5 vs Jets
POTY Raiders +9 vs CHiefs
As the old gambling proverb goes, If at first you don't succeed just keep doubling down till you get cut off. So thats what I am going to do again with my pick of the year for the Raiders to cover against the CHiefs. THe Chiefs are historically overvalued (except when they play the Raiders) and yeah they beat the snot out of Vegas in Vegas and this game is at KC. Yes there is no Darren Waller and Kelce feasts on Raiders every single time but what the hell. First off, the Raiders only seem to show up when it doesnt matter and given their recent performances this game no longer matters. The winds will only be about 15mph at KC but I think this will be a much closer game than the last one. THe raiders should be looking to shorten the game by running Jacobs a ton and Mahomes still has to prove he is the QB that beat the Raiders last time and not the turnover prone QB that has surfaced through much of 2021.
Put me down for Navy on the AP please.
ReplyDeleteI’ll be back to lay down some crappy NFL picks.
Jets +5.5
ReplyDeleteBengals +1.5
Arizona -2.5
Green Bay -12.5
AP - Navy +7.5
Essay - Tennessee -9 over Jacksonville
I'm drawing blanks right now at this point on our Cheddar calendar. I'm tempted to go with Baltimore to finally put the Browns out of their (and my own) misery. However, I feel that Baker and company will stumble into a win - if only to prolong what has become a miserably tired adult soap opera. So - we'll go with the suddenly cold Titans to rev up against the league's biggest clown outfit in Jacksonville.
CORRECTION- Let me swap out the JETS for DENVER -9
DeleteThanks!
Army -7.5 vs Navy
ReplyDeleteSaints -5.5 vs Jets
Falcons +2.5 vs Panthers
Bears +12.5 vs Packers
Cards -2.5 vs Rams
Browns -2.5 vs Ravens***Essay**POTY**
Can Baker really be this bad? I just can't believe it. We have seen a lot better. He can't see over the offensive lineman and the teams are making him play in the pocket now, he has lacked touch on his passes from day one. Whatever, if Baker doesn't play like the worst qb in the league for many stretches of this season, then the browns would be much better than 6-6.
'mama didn't raise no wuss'
How exhausting it must be to carry around a chip on your shoulder your whole life.
If Baker can get out of his own way, out of his own head, and win a game in the fourth quarter, like maybe even score a touchdown in the fourth quarter, there will be a jolt of life shot through this team that could carry them several games and into the postseason.
JOK is a perfect player against Lamar, this should limit what the Ravens can do at least a little bit.
Maybe the Browns were really beat up and a bye week is nice for everyone so I'll jump on the clowns here in a big way and make it my POTY, in case that is still a scoring mechanism.
AP: Army
ReplyDeleteNFL to follow
Navy +7.5
ReplyDeleteBills +3.5
49ers -1.5 (isn’t this a Super Bowl rematch?)
Jets +5.5 (Essay)
Seahawks -7.5
Cardinals -2.5
No more biscuit-eligible college games besides Army-Navy until the bowls start. We also have FCS and D2/D3 games if you’re hardcore and need to watch non-professional games this weekend. And the Grey Cup, which is professional but teams only have 75% of the downs the NFL has. Last week’s POTY hit will be a tough act to follow (moral of the story: if you’re going to hit 2 out of 6, it’s best if one of your hits is your POTY.
Here is where bad decisions are made. Somehow the Saints are favored coming off a 5 losing streak. The Jets’ recent performances probably justify home underdog status. On paper the Jets have a worse defense. However, the Meadowlands is no picnic to play in. It’s not especially intimidating, it’s just rather blah and soulless. And windy. I don’t see an exciting game either way. Maybe the Saints win and the Jets make it close in garbage time.
Navy
ReplyDeleteCowboys -4.5 Essay
DeleteEssay this week is on the cowboys, to get back to business as usual in the NFC east. Somehow Washington has put together a four game win streak. However, Dallas is still the NFL's overall number one ranked offense in Washington is missing key players Chase young and probably montez sweat as well. On the other side the Cowboys D will have parsons, gregory, and Lawrence all together. I think the betting lines are still including the stench of the cowboys performances against the Broncos and Chiefs a few weeks back. But it looks like Ezekiel Elliott is healthy and the cowboys are going to blast through Washington on both sides of the ball, pretty much claiming the NFC East as a done deal this weekend.
Raiders +9
DeleteGiants +10
Bengals +1.5
Broncos -9
Navy 7.5
ReplyDeleteNavy (W)
DeleteGiants 10 over LAC
Bills 3.5 over TB
Rams 2.5 over Arizona
Bears 12.5 over Packers
Essay: Broncos -9 over Lions.
For the second straight week, my essay is a “let’s not overthink things” play. Detroit is a mash unit, crippled by illness and injury at most position groups. Plus, they also stink. Denver has feasted on bad teams this year, and is relatively healthy. Let’s let er rip.
1. AP: Army -7.5 vs. Navy
ReplyDelete2. Saints -5.5
Delete3. Seahawks -7.5
4. Broncos -9
5. Rams +2.5
6. Essay: Cowboys -4.5 @ Washington
Washington is down a ton of defenders. The Cowboys are down (arguably) their most explosive RB at the moment. The RB the Cowboys are using is admittedly not at full health and unlikely to see any increased workload. Washington is not good at defending the pass. The Cowboys have an excellent passing game. All of these points sound like a recipe for the Cowboys to throw all day and score at will, while I trust the Cowboys defense to make their share of stops.
you're looking LIVE at kanick from his parent's crib in parker co. gimme army for the all-play.
ReplyDeletei’m late
Deletebrowns
raiders
wash
ill essay the packers because rodgers passing 260 a game vs fields 130 a game is pretty compelling differential. turnovers, coaching, lambeau plus a playoff team vs one playing for draft picks. take the pack.
DeleteNavy for the all-play. I am also traveling this weekend so the spreadsheet is going to be behind the times, but I'll tabulate it all when I get back home.
ReplyDeleteReally quick before a day of driving:
DeleteFalcons +2.5 over Panthers
Saints -5.5 over Jets
Raiders +9 over Chiefs
Cowboys -4.5 over WFT
No time to really think about any of these so I’ll essay the Monday night game tomorrow, one way or the other…
DeleteEssay Cardinals -2.5 over Rams — I kind of want to pick the Rams here but the Cardinals have been a little bit better (#7 vs #8 in weighted DVOA), they’re at home, and they haven’t been hit with the COVID stick quite as hard, with the most recent news being that Jalen Ramsey isn’t going to be out there on Deandre Hopkins, to go with the four other missing starters. Cardinals are playing to basically lock up the division, I’m OK with two and a half points (although my heartfelt condolences to everyone who took the Browns yesterday).
Army for me!
ReplyDeleteMatt, via text, picks:
Delete49ers
Browns
Bills
Jaguars
Essay: Cards -2.5 over Rams
DeleteKyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins looked good in their return to action last week. With Kyler, the Cards have been the most reliable team in the NFL this season; their only loss came in a primetime showdown against the Packers that they had a chance to win late. On the other hand, the Rams have been shaky post-September. Before last week's win over the Jaguars (which I'm going to disregard in this analysis because the Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars), LA had lost three in a row, and in the four games before that three-game losing streak, they lucked out with some bad opponents (Texans, Lions, Giants, Seahawks), so there really is no evidence of the Rams being an excellent team since they took down the Bucs at home on September 26. The last time these teams played, the Cardinals dominated. This time, the game's in Arizona, and nothing has happened in the interim that leads be to believe that tonight's result will be much different. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and they can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. I think they'll make the most of that opportunity.
Army. No internet service here so trouble posting
ReplyDeleteJets
DeleteBears
Denver
Texans
Welp, I guess I'm not doing so hot getting these all plays in the last two weeks...anyway on to Sunday.
ReplyDeleteTitans -9
Panthers -2.5
WFT +4.5
Bengals +1.5
Essay: Seahawks -7.5
I can't believe I'm picking this game to essay, but I don't really like any of the matchups this week so I decided to go with the one with two struggling offenses. I read a nugget that the Texans are scoring only 13.5 points per game this season while the Seahawks' defense ranks sixth in the NFL. Usually not a good recipe, but weirder things have happened. With the O/U set at 41.5 Houston's team total is 16.5, a number they've hit only twice since Week 2. Russell gets back to having some fun and the Seahawks put up more than 30 for a very comfortable win. SKOL!
Essay: San Francisco: Really killing it the past couple weeks in the attentiveness department missing an all play that won by 100 and then not getting in essay on NE last week. So we are three points to the negative. Then panic picked Army yesterday although fair to say I did not have a real lean there. As such, I've decided to really get on top of things today and try to backdoor the playoffs. Bottom line in this one is this line reeks. Cincy has been capable all year while Frisco has been a massive disappointment. Does Burrow have COVID? Is Marvin Lewis guest coaching. I don't know and I'm too disorganized to ask questions so here it is.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Chiefs
Broncos
Bills
Rams
1. Ravens +2.5
ReplyDelete2. Jaguars +9
3. Bengals +1.5
4. Cardinals -2.5
All Play – WHOOPS, MISSED THIS
Essay – Lions +9
Love the Lions here. Picking up some momentum off their first win. This feels like my same essay from Thanksgiving vs. the Bears because the message stays true. The Lions are a pretty good team that has been in almost every game this year. They follow Campbells lead and play tough defense and find ugly ways to compete through Jared Goff. It certainly hurts that D’Andre is out and the running backs room is a covid cesspool but I think the organization is embracing the “find a way” to compete way of football and the next men up will respond. I don’t know a ton about the Broncos other than Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater just hasn’t covered this year. The lions might not win this game, but I love the 9 points.