Cheddar Bay Week 13: #1 Georgia -6.5 vs #3 Alabama
Hey guys, sorry for the late post, but it's hard to get those mid-week juices really flowing when midweek MACtion is over. Another pretty lame looking NFL schedule, other than Bills/Pats on MNF, but college championship Saturday has a ton of intrigue. Will be fun to see how they screw Cincinnati. Or maybe Cincy, Michigan, and Oklahoma State all lose and then Notre Dame, Ohio State, Baylor, and Ole Miss are suddenly in the mix. Fun stuff.
1) San Diego St. -6 v. Utah St.
ReplyDelete2) Michigan -10.5 v Iowa
3) Falcons +11 v Buccaneers
4) Rams -13 v Jaguars
AP) Georgia -6.5 v Alabama
Essay) Pitt -3 v Wake Forest
Pitt versus Wake Forest. The exact ACC Championship Game we all predicted at the start of the season, right?
Wake has faded a bit down the stretch, continuing to do just enough to get into this game, but the total lack of a defense has caught up with them. Kenny Pickett has gone from off the radar to top QB in the draft over the course of chewing up the ACC. Did I mention Wake's lack of defense? Pickett will eat. Pitt plays just enough defense to get a few stops and win this one semi-comfortably. Take the over, watch Wake try to close the gap late and try to sneak in the backdoor. But at 3 points, I gotta take Pitt to here.
Oregon +2.5 / Utah - Essay
ReplyDelete13 days removed from the big 38-7 win at home, Utah heads to Las Vegas to meet the Ducks again. After winning by 31 then, they're only laying 2.5 to UO? What gives? During this run of dominant performances the Utes have the win over UO and UCLA, but also far inferior competition in Colorado, Arizona, and Stanford. I watched the game against UO, and despite the 38-7 score, the game was hard fought and closer than it appears. The Ducks made some threats to get back into it, but UO made some dumb mistakes that stalled drives and gave up that huge punt return that essentially ended the game at halftime. In reality, Utah's special teams are a liability, if anything, as demonstrated in last week's game against the Buffs where they gave up a KR TD that helped me hit my POTY and missed 2 FGs. Last week UO racked up 506 yards and 39 points in a balanced performance against a decent Beavs team, it felt like they were getting back to business as usual. I think UO is tuned up and ready to go for a chance at neutral field revenge against the Utes. Feels like the 2019 Pac-12 title game. Ducks rebound and win a close one.
Alabama +6.5
DeleteMichigan -10.5
DeleteJets + 7
DeleteFalcons +11
Bills -3
DeleteGeorgia -6.5 over Alabama
ReplyDeleteCardinals -7.5 over Bears
Eagles -7 over Jets
Broncos +9.5 vs CHiefs
Essay: Raiders -1.5 over Football Team
Yeah so I suck betting for my team that I root for. That is precisely why I do pools like this so I don't lose my car or house, but this week is going to be different. Yeah Football Team is coming off a bye versus the Seahawks but the Raiders picked up 3 extra days of practice to figure out how they will be able to deal with the loss of Darren Waller. Look, this is a big loss without question, but this will at least force Carr to spread the ball around instead of locking on the exact same piece the defense is keying in on. I'm sure he will instead zero in on Renfrow but hope springs eternal, after all I lasted through the Russell years (also understanding the amount of Browns fans in this pool, https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/brownstown/id1573027141 ). This Raider team has been through alot but this year sets them up to actually finish strong for the first time since Rich Gannon was under center. Am I wrong, porbably but I think the NFC East was just what the Dr. ordered (minus the giants) for the Raiders to get their act together. After all its not even a 3 point home favorite spread, I mean c'mon what does Vegas know.
oklahoma st -5.5 at home v baylor
ReplyDeletealabama +6.5 ap
wake forest +3 at home v pittsburgh
hooks, baby. tough hooks.
who's your fav?
Deletecolts - 10
dolphins - 4
ravens - 4
UTSA +3.5
ReplyDeleteNIU + 3.5 v Kent
DeleteUtah State + 6 essay
DeleteToday they get a chance to win a place in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl game. In a statement, Jimmy Kimmel said “On December 18th, my dream of being forever enshrined alongside orange, rose, cotton and peach comes true.” So the stakes could not be higher for the Agriculturalists. All that stands between them and a share in the dream is college footballs best kicker. Lost os stuff to love about these odds. 1. They can cover the spread and still be down a field goal, 2. They only have 28% of Vegas insider tracked votes, 3. Rumors have it that there is a bit of a Covid issue with SDSU, 4. The are more of a passing team than a rushing team and SDSU is better at rushing defense than passing defense
Other votes
Ragin' Cajuns + 3 v App St
Alabama +6.5
Broncos + 9.5
Cincinnati -11 v Houston
ReplyDeleteAP -Georgia -6.5 @ Alabama
Michigan -10.5 @ Iowa
Niners -3 @ Seahawks
WFT +1.5 @ Raiders
***Patriots +3 @ Bills
No time to fully peruse the field this week due to travel, but I will happily go with the Pats again this week. Big game in this division, should be fun to watch. Tough to face the Bills #1 defense overall and in the pass, but Buffalo has been very up and down, losing to the Jags and Colts and Titans most recently (whose defenses rank #24-27). They now have to face the #2 overall defense in NE. The Bills last 3 losses were by teams with #3, #9, and #31 ranked offenses. Makes no sense. Meanwhile, the Patriots are rolling. Mac Jones did not look as sharp last week but expect him to rally in this key game. Their last 3 losses came by way of the Cowboys (OT), Bucs, and the Saints before the Saints fell off the cliff. Can’t believe I’m actually rooting for NE after all these years, but I like this team. 8-4 ATS works too.
Georgia -6.5 Roll Tide? Not this week
ReplyDeleteUTSA +3.5 #oops the game already started
Appalachian State -3 let’s go to the well another time
Pitt -3
Utah State +6 (POTY)
Raiders -1.5
Giants +4
Might as well use the POTY now. Bowl games can become more of a crapshoot than usual. At least this week schools kinda sorta have something to play for. It’s interesting how the NCAA spreads tightened this week with the conference title game agenda, save for the Postponement Bowl of USC vs Cal. No more situations with the Merchant Marine Academy getting 127 points going against Ohio St. until 2022 cupcake round. Pro spreads in a few cases seem to be encroaching on college territory. Utah St. has performed well on the road this year. By the numbers they’re more high-octane than SDSU, which points to a potential high scoring and close affair. A six point boost will help in that scenario. These teams are very evenly matched and have put up similar results against common opponents. I’m not expecting a lopsided result either way which favors the team with a decent spot.
Looks like my strikethrough text on UTSA +3.5 didn't come through! I'm not actually trying to pick them now that the game is basically over. Although that was the only game this week that jumped out a no-brainer.
DeleteHouston 11 over the Fighting Fickells
ReplyDeleteAlabama 6.5 over Georgia (All Play)
Houston (L)
DeleteBama (W)
Chargers +3 over Bengals
Bills -2.5 over Pats
Texans +10 over Colts
Essay: Cards -7.5 over Bears
This may feel like a square play, but sometimes it’s best just not to overthink things. Kyler and Nuk returning after several missed games to injury, plus off a bye week, versus Andy Dalton and a Bears defense that can’t stop anyone. Bears are missing their best interior DL, their best WR, and their best pass rusher. And their QB is Andy Dalton. Cards will move to 7-0 on the road and all 7 of those by double digits.
Houston over cinci
ReplyDeleteIowa over Michigan
Georgia over Alabama
Oklahoma St over baylor
Lions over Vikings
DeleteBroncos over chiefs
Not going to bother win an essay this week.
DeleteCollege plays:
ReplyDeleteMichigan
Baylor
All play: Alabama
NFL to follow
NFL:
DeleteJets
Chargers
Essay: Patriots (essay to follow)
ReplyDeleteOklahoma State -5.5
Atlanta +11
Bills -3
Colts -10
AP - Georgia -6.5
Essay - Miami -4
I'm at that point in my Cheddar year where I realize I know nothing about football. So, we'll go with the Dolphins to continue their hot streak. Instead of football analysis, I offer you what I feel are the top five works of Rainier Werner Fassbinder:
1. Ali: Fear Eats the Soul - Heartbreaking, stylish and eerily prescient.
2. The Bitter Tears of Petra Von Kant - Somehow gorgeous, lush and deeply dark.
3. Fox and His Friends - A bitter, sometimes brutal allegory
4. World on a Wire - I'm a sucker for 70s Science Fiction.
5. The Merchant of Four Seasons - Worth a second watch.
ReplyDeleteAP: Alabama +6.5
DeleteLions +7 (vs Vikings)
Bears +7.5 (vs Cards)
Chiefs -9.5 (vs Broncos)
Pats +3 (at Bills)
Essay: Chargers +3 (at Bengals)
Bounceback spot for the Chargers after a bad Broncos loss, which was surprising but maybe less surprising when you think the Broncos were coming off a bye. And yet Chargers are still a good team that has played a tough schedule and is still in the playoff mix. And since Herbert seems to be a legit top flight QB, he will bounce back after a bad Broncos game. Meanwhile, as everyone is ready to crown Cincy after two nice wins, lets remember the last time they had been taken serious: they got handled by the Jets. Oh and the Bengals are 32nd in strength of schedule this year, so this whole thing might be a mirage….especially when you consider how shitty Cincy looked against the shitty Browns. Chargers 28, Bengals 21
okst -5.5 baylor
ReplyDeletekent st -3.5 niu
Im going to ride with the greatest athlete produce my Midview HS and next year's starting QB for your Cleveland Browns. Dustin Crum is an NFL prototype QB buried in the MAC. Ignored by OSU in favor of out of state QBs. Fought off an Auburn transfer to keep his starting job. All he does is win with both his arm and his legs. Fearless. Leader. Kent State to cover and win their first MAC championship since 1972.
houston +11 cincy
bama +6.5 uga
bengals -3 vs chargers
steelers +4 vs ravens
1. Baylor +5.5
ReplyDelete2. San Diego State -6
3. Cincinnati -11
4. Bengals -3
All Play – Georgia -6.5
Essay – Bears +7.5
Kyler Murray Injury + Andy Dalton Conservatism + Grass Solider Field + Rainy Cold Day = Cardinals win a one score game close. I love the extra .5 point here. Even if Murray plays, he won’t be the dynamic scrambler he typically is, especially on the wet natural surface. While the Bears are a dumpster fire, their defense is still able to get after the QB a bit and they have a decent secondary to play coverage. They also have the advantage of home field, and Midwest weather compared to the desert. I certainly don’t see Andy Dalton blowing the doors off, he might be good for 1 TD and a few INTs but Sunday will be the David Montgomery show, smash mouth ground and pound, clock draining football. Cardinals win by 7.
1. AP: UGA -6.5 vs. Alabama
ReplyDelete2. Dolphins -4 vs. Giants
Delete3. Chargers +3 @ Bengals
4. Colts -10 vs. Texans
5. Cardinals -8 @ Bears
6. Essay: Bills -3 vs. Pats (will come back and do this)
Bill Essay: I just saw a slew of ESPN "experts" all picking the Pats tonight, so I feel even better about this choice. It's Monday night, it's Buffalo, so I'm willing to bet the local stores are sold out of foldable tables in anticipation of the tailgating that is going to ensue hours from now. As one would expect for December in Buffalo, it's going to be cold and windy. This upcoming four game stretch for Buffalo consists of The Pats 2x, The Bucs, and Panthers. Buffalo knows they need this one at home tonight. The fans are going to bring it. Josh Allen is going to bring it. What's left of the defense is going to bring it. Buffalo may not run them out of the building, but they're going to control this game and win it.
DeleteDear executive committee, I did not get credit for the Ravens pick last week, believe I should have gotten a 7 pt week, instead of 6. thanks!
ReplyDeleteAP: Alabama +6.5 vs Georgia
Michigan -12.5 vs Iowa
Bills-3 over Pats
DeleteRams -13 over Jags
Bengals -3 over Chargers
Bears +7.5 vs Cards
Rust game for Skyler Murray, dude has been out for over a month. Nagy coaching for his life, questionable weather game in Chicago, I’ll take the points and think we’ll see a fun game here. Cards have a great record but I’m not necessarily sold that they are a great team, this seems like a natural let down spot for them. If they put up points hopefully dalton, fields or whoever is the QB for the bears can keep up, but I think this will be a low scoring affair so I’ll take the home team in a tight one.
Whoops, not sure what happened there. Probably just wishful thinking.
DeleteAP Georgia -6.5 over Alabama, I guess?
ReplyDeleteTexans +10 over Colts
DeleteCardinals -7.5 over Bears — Murray and Hopkins are back in, I guess
Giants +4 over Dolphins — Variety is the spice of life and I don’t think I’ve been wrong about the Giants covering yet, just their opponents
Bills -3 over Patriots
Essay Chargers +3 over Bengals — In the past I have lived by DVOA splits and I am currently in the process of painfully dying by them. Let’s keep the streak going with weighted DVOA’s #15 vs #20 teams (basically slightly above average vs slightly below average). The underdog Chargers are, obviously, in the #15 spot and therefore destined to miss everything that comes to them in the kicking game and commit multiple red zone turnovers leading to opportunistic TDs. Bengals by 30.
Georgia please for the AP.
ReplyDeleteJets +7 over Eagles
DeleteChargers +3 over Bengals
Steelers +4 over Ravens
Raiders -1.5 over WFT
Essay: Bills -3 over Patriots
DeleteWith AFC East supremacy on the line in the spiciest MNF matchup of the season, I like the Bills to reassert their dominance and show why they entered the season as a trendy Super Bowl pick. The Pats gotta lose at some point, right? Mac Jones has been on fire, but outside of Brady's Week 4 return to Foxboro, he's yet to experience a matchup of this magnitude—particularly on the road. I think he'll make some rookie mistakes, allowing the Bills to take a half-game lead in the division and setting up a pivotal rematch on Christmas weekend. Josh Allen's rushing will seal it for the Bills.
dang it missed getting in the AP...totally flaked on checking this morning after seeing nothing posted as of Thursday
ReplyDeleteAP: nada
Iowa +10.5
Time to get back on track after a day to forget yesterday.
DeleteChargers +3
Dolphins -4
Rams -13
Essay: Cardinals -7.5
It's cold, windy and rainy here in Chicago this morning...a miserable December day. That should be a huge advantage for a mediocre Chicago Bears team and magnified even more so when a warm weather team comes to Soldier Field. But this Bears team is anything but mediore. They are bad. Every time I see a clip from a Nagy presser I am left entirely confused on how that human being is an NFL coach. Bears are beat up, have no offense and Arizona gets Kyler and DeAndre back. Bears D might be able to keep it close for 30 minutes, but the Cardinals pull away in the 2nd half to win by a couple tuddies and bring home the biscuits. SKOL!