Cheddar Bay Week 9: Browns +2.5 at Bengals
In a week of low profile college games, we head to Cincinnati for the Battle of Ohio. It is still very early into this 17 game season, but this one feels like a big deal in deciding the AFC North. Then again, after both teams laid eggs last week, maybe it is really just deciding last place. But this is rivalry with its own wikipedia page, so has to be important.
In any event, this video is always appropriate if there is a Battle of Ohio all-play. RIP Sam Wyche.
So sad that I missed Tuesday night Maction but I won't miss Wednesday! CMU + 8. vs WMU
ReplyDeleteNavy + 21 v ND in person viewing
DeleteUTSA -11.5 UTEP
DeleteMiami fl -10.5 v Georgia tech
Minnesota -14.5 v Illinois essay no essay
Bengals
CMU +8 and Kent St -3
ReplyDeleteHell yea, off the schneid with two clutch MACtion wins.
DeleteBengals -2.5 over Browns - All-play
PSU -10.5 over Maryland
MSU -3 over Purdue
Washington +7 over Oregon
I'll figure out which of these bozos to essay later.
Essay is Penn State over Maryland.
DeleteJust don't know if there is a B1G program I respect less than Maryland. Every year I hear about some guy they have that's supposed to be talented and is going to make them a sleeper in the B1G East, and then they go 4-8. Yes, they have 5 wins this year: Illinois, Kent State, Howard, West Virginia, and Indiana. The best team of those five is Kent State. If they rematched, I'd take the Flashes.
Baby Tua is great at going off against bad teams and bad defenses. Penn State is not a bad defense, and they showed a lot of life against OSU. This is Penn State's chance to breathe and flex some muscle.
Speaking of lack of respect, this is the most disrespectful "rivalry" in terms of historical outcomes. That's a 40-3-1 record in favor of the Lions. Yes, Maryland won last year. That just means they're due for 15 more years of losses. Franklin has nothing but disdain for them and I think he'll take advantage of his last chance to drop 50 on the Terps before he heads to USC. Feels like a 38-20 final coming up, maybe take the over if you feel like there's good potential for 2nd half garbage time scoring.
Early Picks since I am going to Cancun and going tech free for the rest of the week.
ReplyDeleteBengals -2.5 over Browns
Ohio State -15 vs Nebraska
Georgia -38 over Mizzou (another shutout for Bulldogs)
Raiders -2.5 over Giants
Essay CHiefs -7.5 over Packers
Now my first essay choice for the week went up in flames when.... Aaron Rodgers decided to not only look like an anti-vax Portlander but was in fact actually one in disguise this whole season. Nothing like the shield knowing the dude was unvaxxed and pretending to the media he was (with his in person availability, etc.) whereas someone like Cam gets outed and released. (Yeah Cam is not Rodgers but I stand by my point.) Look I was really looking forward to Davante coming back and sticking a fork in the Chief's season. Mahomes is a mess. He should've spent more time practicing reading defense and less time shooting commercials. I just think that Jordan Love is going to be completely overmatched and the notoriously overpriced Chiefs finally cover a damn spread.
Colts -10.5 over the Jets for one point
ReplyDeleteApp State -21 over Ark State for one
DeleteColts (W)
DeleteApp State (W)
Niners +1 over Cards
Vikings 6 over Ravens
Browns 2.5 over Bengals
Essay: Packers 7.5 over Chefs
This is mostly a pick based on the market overreaction and grabbing the points at this key number. Jordan Love is no Aaron Rodgers — he is vaccinated, after all — but the Pack’s supporting cast is outstanding and at nearly full strength. KC is a mystery here, but one thing is clear: their defense is putrid. I like the Pack to keep this one close.
1: Jets +10.5 @ Colts
ReplyDelete2: Clemson -4.5 @ Louisville
3: 49ers +1 v. Cardinals
4: Michigan St. -3 @ Purdue
AP: Browns +2.5 @ Bengals
Essay: Oregon -7 @ Washington
Words for the essay coming soon.
Football is a motivation business and Washington's head football coach made the mistake of adding usable motivation to their opponents this week. And it just so happens their oppenent is better than they are. Oregon hasn't been impressive but the CFP number 4, has been far better than the Huskies. The Ducks may play with their food for a bit, but eventually run away and hide from You-Dub. And Jimmy Lake can enjoy his Pacific Ivy while Oregon continues to win conference championships.
DeleteGiddyup Colts -10.5 over Jets for one point thx
ReplyDeleteNo essay essay week: Navy +21 at ND
DeleteWill also take Purdue +3 over Mich St.,
Auburn +5 over TAMU,
Washington +7 over Oregon,
and Bengals in the all play
Notre Dame -21
ReplyDeleteSF +1
Chargers -1.5
Buffalo -14.5
AP - Cincy -2.5
Essay - UC -22.5 over Tulsa
Let's dip back into a world I know nothing about and go with the Bearcats, who were disrespected in the first "Who Gets to Play Alabama in the National Title Money Grab Game?" rankings, sponsored by Dr. Pepper. Certainly, they'll be fired up and Tulsa is coming off a hard-fought game against Navy - or Army....or somebody who runs the Ravens' offense.
I'm tempted to petition the Cheddar board to allow a double essay pick featuring one city, as the Bengals have to be drooling over the Browns' OBJ drama and a Joe Woods defense that can't keep up with talented offenses. While OBJ's removal will surely allow Baker to regain the rhythm of Stefanski's offense and produce a series of intricately-designed four-yard completions, this Cleveland team has been and will continue to lack playmakers outside of Chubb and Hunt. We can talk Baker-OBJ all day but this team is closer to another rebuild than it is to the Super Bowl.
AP Clowns +2.5 vs Bengals
ReplyDeleteI think the visiting team will win in the trenches and make it miserable for Burrow. Baker always plays well against Bengals, and always plays better w/o OBJ, and he's played like real shit lately, so it would make sense that he has some sort of bounce back soon!! Team is getting heathier in general, and they can galvanize around this OBJ thing. People-Jones is supposed to be good and OBJ was giving the team nothing, so it really doesn't feel like a loss. OBJ and Baker are both Dorsey guys, what was Andrew Berry supposed to do about them until this week anyway, not a whole lot other than let things play out…Stefanski is still a really good coach. all hail Mr. Chase, the Bengals rookie phenom. I think the browns are up to the challenge at least this weekend! let the browns secondary spot him and use some veteran savvy to win a couple 1v1s.
MSU -3 vs Purdue
Texans +6.5 vs Dolphins
Cowboys -9.5 vs Broncos
Bills -14.5 vs Jags
Chiefs -7.5 vs Packers
Wake +2.5 at UNC
ReplyDeleteAuburn +5 at TAMU
UK +1.5 vs Tenn
Seems like the UGA loss (but cover!) took the shine of UK's season and sad Wildcats got smacked by Missy at Starkville last week. Rivalry game at home at night says that will be shaken off vs Tenn. I don't find any big injuries or anything really different from the Wildcat team that took down UF and LSU other than two road losses in the SEC. Not for nothing but the Vols are riding a two game losing streak too. The line says Vols would be -4.5 on a neutral site and I just don't see it. Stoops over Heupel.
Pats -4 at Panthers
Browns +2.5 at Bengals
Cards -1 at Niners
ReplyDeleteSMU -5 Essay
Rice +6
UNLV +2
UCF -13
Bengals -2.5
Cardinals -1
I like SMU here, favored by 5 runs. They’re putting up points and coming up on the winning side more often than not. Memphis is not terrible, they’re just on the wrong side of the ledger lately. Scoring points plus mostly winning translates to winning probably by a touchdown or more. I’m guessing a high scoring affair which would favor SMU. 49-31 or something like that… which sounds like a blowout, but translates to 7-4 when expressing it like baseball or soccer.
Ohio State -15 over Nebraska
ReplyDeleteAuburn +5 over Texas A&M
NC State -2.5 over FSU
Browns +2.5 over Bengals: ESSAY AND POTY
DeleteWe all know Baker Mayfield has played significantly better without Odell Beckham. We also all know that Baker has owned the Bengals throughout his career, and that this year's Bengals team is capable of losing to the Jets and the Bears -- which I refuse to believe is true of the Browns. The Browns are better than their record indicates -- they're still SIXTH in total DVOA, good for second in the AFC -- and despite how things have gone since their 3-1 start, they're just one game back in the wins column in the AFC North. Point is, they're plenty capable of getting their season back on track and making a playoff push down the stretch if they can put the OBJ drama behind them and get healthy. But for that to happen, I really feel like they HAVE to win today. Similarly, I've had a rough go of it in the Bay these past few weeks and desperately need to hit an essay. If there were any week to ride or die with the Browns, it'd be this one, when they're getting points against what seems to be an inferior opponent. So I'll take them as my essay and play of the year.
Other picks:
Packers +7.5 over Chiefs
Panthers +4 over Pats
NC State -2.5 @ FSU
ReplyDeleteSouth Carolina +18 vs Florida
AP: Bengals -2.5 vs Browns
DeleteRaiders -2.5 @ Giants.
Vikings +6 vs Ravens
***Packers +7.5 @ Chiefs
This five point line move seems like an overreaction. Aaron Rogers has been very average this year. Not a non-factor by any means, but he is probably a mental factor (positive or negative) more than anything. They beat Arizona at home on a short week, and Rogers didn’t do it alone. The Chiefs have little to no defense, and they are dead last in turnovers. Mahomes is oddly off this year, getting in his own way. I think Matt LeFleur will get creative with the young QB while keeping him on a tight leash. The rush was working for them last week and they’ll build on that moving forward. The other Aaron is definitely up for this. This team has slowly been moving toward a new identity this season, and really don’t have much competition within the division so there’s not a feeling of a must win.
DART BOARD ZERO RESEARCH WEEK
ReplyDeleteOle Miss -9.5 vs Liberty. Little known fact: Eli Manning played at Ole Miss
NW +11.5 vs Iowa. Fun Fact: Ryan Field is a high school "stadium." Shake those keys!
Vikings +6 vs Ravens Fun Fact: Edgar Allen Poe wrote a poem called "The Raven."
Packers +7.5 @ Chiefs
All Play: Bengals -2.5 vs Browns
Essay: Wake Forest +2.5 @ UNC
I haven't watched either of these teams play this year which is why I like the Demon Deacons a lot. What is a tarheel? Honestly, I didn't know so I googled it. Apparently, North Carolina produced a lot of tar during the 19th century and was a major supplier to other states. The Civil War soldiers of North Carolina (who, gulp, fought for the losers) were appropriately nicknamed the "Tar Heels." Surprised I never wikipediaed that before. Well, sounds to me like the type of nickname that if the Wikipedia page were to infiltrate the "woke mob" cancel culture, it is DOA. I think Wake Forest is able to cancel Mac Jones and his band of Tarheels. No idea why I'm taking Wake Forest here but I did learn something new this morning.
Wake Forest More Points than UNC
Essay: North Carolina. This will probably end up more popular than I like but UNC is looking for some sort of season defining win and this is the best they are going to do. A little concerned they are coming off ND in a prime time spot loss last week, but they should be able to score at will (Wake will too) and I'm just not buying Wake as a top ten team. They have to get tripped up somewhere and this would seem like the most likely spot. At the same time, backing Mack Brown makes me nervous, but no side is ever flawless. After trying to buck the sharp square play last week and getting it in the face we will go what will probably end up with this weeks sharp square this time. UNC for the essay.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Purdue
Washington Huskies
49ers
Tennessee Volunteers
All play: Browns
Ohio State -15 (at Nebraska)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Delete
DeleteCowboys -9.5 (vs Broncos)
Raiders -2.5 (at Giants)
Cardinals -1 (at 49ers)
Rams -7.5 (vs Titans)
Essay: Packers +7.5 (at Chiefs)
I don't care where you land on vaccines/mandates/protocols/etc. Fine people on both sides, some could say. But there is no doubt the biggest POS from all of this national crisis has been identified and his name is Aaron Rodgers. It's sad, too, because I sort of liked the guy. I like people that don't fit in boxes and are hard to figure out. I didn't care about the seemingly illogical trade demand. I like Joe Rogan. I like the community owned Packers. I like Wisconsin. I like cheese.
But this fucking guy, what a fucking coward. Wants to be liked and have his cake and eat it too. He couldn't be a sheep and that's fine, because there are serious questions about everything at this point. However, instead of showing a ounce of spine or courage in his conviction, such as Cam Newton, Cole Beasely and several other players that took a stand and took major shit for it, he was a fucking liar. Those guys have been crapped on in article after article for months. Hell, Cam arguably lost his job because of it.
And then this fucking liar goes around acting like big bad society is trying to "cancel" him like Chappelle and others. And then he blames cancel culture and everyone picks their side accordingly. Well, fuck that. Call me old school, but being a fucking liar and specifically lying about your status in such a cowardice way is the worst of the worst.
Anyway, onto football, if I were his teammate I would also be like "fuck this guy." He already caused a bunch of drama. And Love was good in the preseason. So I don't see why the Packers can't keep rolling, especially against a seemingly hapless Chiefs.
Packers 30, Chiefs 24
MSU -3
ReplyDeleteAuburn +5
Cincinnati -22.5
AP: Bengals -2.5
Oofta. Tough day yesterday.
DeleteVikings +6
Essay: Packers +7.5 POY
Somehow before Rodgers was ruled out of this game the Packers were one point dogs to a pretty bad Chiefs team that is turning the ball over way too much and can't stop anyone on defense. Goes without saying that Love is not Rodgers, but that shouldn't matter much. Packers will simply put the ball in Jones' and Dillon's hands more and Adams will bail Love out in the passing game because he's always stellar. Bettors are giving zero credit to the Packers as a team. Packers will outright win this game which is why I'm making it my POY. SKOL!
1. Ohio State -15 @ Nebraska
ReplyDelete2. Texans +6.5
Delete3. Giants +2.5
4. Rams -7.5
5. AP: Browns +2.5
6. Essay: Chargers -1.5
I'll be back to essay it, if I don't make it back will just use no writeup week.
No essay, essay week it is (was). Go Browns.
DeleteOk state
ReplyDeleteBaylor
Utep
Louisiana tech
Browns
Michigan State Essay***
This Michigan state team looks like an all around solid group. They have the big time receivers who can make plays. They have their Le’veon bell type running back in Kenneth Walker. And their defense is playing good enough to win games. Purdue already had their upset of a big team this year and I don’t think they have it in them twice. I also think the Iowa team that they beat is average at best. Michigan state did have a huge win last week and they could have a let down this week, but I don’t see it from Mel Tucker. They win and cover
Deletepurdue +3
ReplyDeleteindiana +18.5
san jose st +10
saints -6
benglas -2.5
rams -7.5 essay to follow
it's easy to like ryan tannehill since he moved to the titans, but matthew stafford at the rams, well hellooo federal. it's a fit. mcvay has coached the offense to showcase stafford's strengths and as a result he is at 68.9% passing accuracy. overall the rams avg 30.6 points/game, which should be enough to cover -7.5 spread vs a derrick henry-less titans. last week's (impressive) win over the division rival colts left the titans bruised and battered.
Deleteoh, then there's von miller. : )
the public money is at 72% la on the money line, only 52% to cover. that's missing a value.
give me the rams, -7.5
Tulsa +22.5
ReplyDeleteCincinnati is probably going to be playing angry after the CFP rankings, but Tulsa is feisty and three of their five losses are to ranked teams, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, in Houston. One vote.
Washington + 7 / Oregon
DeleteBroncos +9.5 / Cowboys
DeleteBrowns +2.5 / Bengals - All play
Eagles +1.5
DeleteTitans +7.5 / Rams - ESSAY
Rams are winners of 4 straight, none against winning teams, Titans winners of 4 straight as well including big wins over the Chiefs and Bills. The Titans are 6-2, and would be the #1 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. Missing The best RB in the league is a tough break, but they haven't put that record together entirely because of Derrick Henry. Tannehill needs to be efficient and get the ball out fast, keep Aaron Donald's impact minimized. I think the Titans are definitely underdogs here, but more than 7 is too much.
Troy Bunting
ReplyDeleteCoastal Carolina -19.5
LSU +28.5
All play
DeleteBengals -2.5
Chargers -1.5
DeleteCardinals -1
Essay - Ravens -6
Bounce back game for the Ravens. Surprised they had been winning as much and as efficiently before their drubbing by the Bengals. Ravens had been arguably the most significantly injured team in the league from week 1. That said, I think the Bengals game was a wake up a call, the bye week last week helped get a lot of guys healthy and there should be plenty of motivation this week for the team. John Harbaugh is something like 11-2 coming off a bye so I think he'll have the team ready to go. The Vikings seem to be close in every game (margin less than 7 and consistently 2-3) but seem to struggle against over .500 teams. Haven't watched a ton of vikings football but see this as a tough game for them. A rested ravens d should frustrate cousins and the rushing attack of lamar+ should be able to get the job done against a depleted vikings d coming off a tough L to the cowboys. Ravens by 10 with 250+ rushing yards.
Late late college pick of (flips coin) UTEP +11.5 over UTSA, I'll update the spreadsheet in the morning
ReplyDelete
DeleteAll-Play Browns +2.5 over Bengals
Raiders -2.5 over Giants
Vikings +6 over Ravens
Falcons +6 over Saints
Essay 49ers +1 over Cardinals — Looks like Murray and Hopkins are unlikely to play, so this is a shameful bit of opportunism as we stand about halfway between where the line started out and where it is currently. It’s not history’s craziest upset pick anyhow, as a home dog (just barely) in a divisional game between two top 10 DVOA teams (albeit #2 vs #9). Last go-around the Cardinals won by a TD but that was against a very shaky Trey Lance. Garoppolo does not inspire confidence but if they can manufacture any sort of consistent offense and if Colt McCoy has not leveled up dramatically this should be a winnable game for SF.
Put me down for Western Michigan to cover whatever the line is against Akron in Tuesday MACtion.
ReplyDeleteAppears to be -25 currently.
DeleteAlso for tomorrow, NIU +2.5 against Ball St
Super early Maction beating me to the chat! I will take Akron +25 v WMU and Buffalo Suny + 8 vs Miami O. I would have essayed Buffalo had a seen the line earlier and learned about their local boy back up QB Trevor Bycznski who might get some Maction tonight. "his career passing yardage total ranks 12th in Ohio history, threw for a school-record 550 yards in one game, also holds the school record for longest punt with a 73-yarder"
ReplyDelete