Cheddar Bay Week 12: Ohio State -8.5 @ Michigan
Happy Thanksgiving folks!
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
Needless to say I am due for some lobster. Start me off with Bears -3 over Loins, and Raiders +7.5 over Cowboys.
ReplyDeleteOhio State and Penn State for me today
DeleteGive me the lions and Ohio state.
ReplyDeletePanthers over dolphins
DeleteRavens over browns
Oklahoma St over Oklahoma
DeletePenn state over Michigan state - essay
In this showdown between two coaches with newly minted extensions, the line has been driving sharply towards the Lions. News is that MSU, already beat up going into the week and thin to begin with, have been hit with a teamwide flu outbreak.
That's probably going to be too much to overcome for an MSU team that peaked right on time for Michigan but just didn't have the depth to make it through the dog days of November. MSU is going to finish with a fine 9 win season, a nice trip to Florida, and a warm fuzzy feeling from having Tucker locked up. Hard to see this team really going all out to win while severely undermanned, so Penn State coasts to a comfortable win based solely on being a lot closer to full strength.
Bears -3
ReplyDeleteRaiders +7.5
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Michigan +8.5 for the AP
DeleteVikings +3.5 @ Niners
DeletePanthers -2 @ Dolphins
***Patriots -6.5 vs. Titans
I was finally able to watch a Patriots game last week. Talk about being over Tom Brady, wow. They lost 2 of 3 games to start the season, then played the Bucs really well in week 4 and haven’t looked back since. They are playing equally well on both sides of the ball. Tough on defense, ranked #1 overall including 11th best run defense facing the #5 but Derrick Henry-less Titans run game. The QB experts are raving about Mac Jones who seems to be the real deal. The Pats aren’t an offensive powerhouse, but the Titans have a lower tier defense especially in the pass. The Titans seem to play good teams better, judging by 2 of their 3 losses being at the hands of the Jets and last week by the lowly Texans. The Titans need a big rebound game from that embarrassment, but boy I would not want to play in Gillette stadium in front of those fans who have a lot to cheer about. NE is rolling, with a 5 game win streak and what looks like another great team for Belichick the grumpy genius.
Happy thanksgiving all. For now, gimme
ReplyDeleteBears -3 over Lions
Raiders 7.5 over Cowboys
Screw it. Bills -6.5 over ‘Aints
DeleteBeen drinking to avoid in law confrontation since 9:14 my time. Happy thanksgiving all.
DeleteMaking the Bills my play of the season, 6.5 over Saints.
The Bills have been a joke this year. Most unpredictable team isn’t the entire NFL. Have boned me now twice on all plays, but I’m going back to the well.
Last week I met Payton Turner, the Saints’ first round pick this year, at a Houston Hoops game. Was super impressed in a short interaction, but he is a beast. Little did I know he was just placed on IR.
Ride or die with JOsh A. Peyton is a beast and won’t be there to rush him, and NO has nobody but Taysom Hill to do anything. Bills.
All pleezy, Buckeyes -8.5 fosheezy
DeleteBears (L)
DeleteRaiders (w)
Bills (W, POTY)
OSU (L)
Carolina -2 over Miami
Vikings 3.5 over SF
Bears -3.5 vs Lions
ReplyDeleteRavens -4 vs Browns
I mean wow, what a game on Sunday, truly, watching in person the browns vs lions sober was a hoot, thank goodness for hot cocoa and coffee in souvenir mugs. Thank goodness for friends giving us club seats so we were able to warm up and stare at food menus rather than the game. That first Mayfield interception was one of the worst throws I have ever seen in my life. We had an especially good view of that throw and wow, the majority of people who toss balls around in their spare time would have made that throw. I may have thrown up a little bit. Needless to say, kitty pryde and I immediately left our seats in the first quarter as soon as that occurred.
Michigan +8.5 vs OSU
Illinois -6.5 vs Northwestern
Oregon -7 vs Oregon State
Bengals -4 vs Steelers***Essay play
Steelers continue to defy gravity by getting immeasurable help from officiating and undeniable luck from opposing quarterback play, they are not very good but when they step on the field, they have 4 decades of legacy excellence backing them and that aura dwarfs what most teams bring to the field. It simply is what it is, until it isn't, and it isn't it yet. Anyway, the bengals beat them nicely in pittsburgh earlier this year and I think they will beat them nicely again at home. Burrow and his WRs are so much better than Ben and his WRs and obviously I'm just hoping the defense of the steelers doesn't take over this game. Burrow should have enough experience now to feel how to not give the game away with turnovers.
1. Ole Miss +1.5
ReplyDelete2. BYU -7
3. San Diego State +2.5
4. Ravens -4
All Play Ohio State -8.5
Essay – Lions +3
Needless to say it’s been a tough year for me in the bay. I can’t seem to find a groove, especially with essay pics soooooo HERE WE GO. I love the Lions this thanksgiving day. As families come together across the country on this thanksgiving holiday there is one that would prefer to sit it out, the family of bears and papa bear Nagy. There is just way too much noise around the Bears. Nagy is going to get fired immediately after the game, then he’s not, then he’s lost the locker room, then that’s confirmed. The Real Housewives of the Midway are putting their bright and shiny ginger back out on the field to run the minimally, at best, effective Nagy offense. Only real football analysis here is that there will be more Dalton INTs than TDs. Layer that on top of a beat up defense who is likely the part of the locker room that hates Nagy the most. On the flipside, despite being winless, Dan Campbell has his guys playing hard week in and week out. Detroit has been in games, they’ve lost a handful by a game winning field goal, but they’ve been competitive. Again, no real analysis here. Family of sad bears for a family of proud lions seems like the perfect situation for a thanksgiving feast for the lions. I will be betting this game as a ML win! Let’s go Lions! I need a good week to get my initial deposit into the bay back.
Saints +6.5
ReplyDeleteBucs -3
Rams -1
Utah State -15.5
AP - OSU -8.5
Essay - Appalachian State -24.5 over Georgia Southern
I'm tempted to throw out some Thanksgiving biscuits on the feel-good Lions but that kind of pick reflects a "Browns Mediocrity Recency Bias." I've all but given up picking AFC teams, given that about six different squads have taken a turn on top on the standings (naturally, the Browns aren't one of those teams). I'm tempted to take OSU as my Essay pick, as in the words of Mike B, they're "going to win by a million." But then again, Mike thinks the stodgy Browns are only one Case Keenum away from becoming a dynasty. Instead, we'll go with Appalachian State based solely on a solid ATS record and see what happens.
Happy Thanksgiving!
1: Notre Dame -19.5 @ Stanford
ReplyDelete2: Cincinnati -13.5 @ East Carolina
3: Florida St +2.5 @ Florida
4: Eagles -3.5 @ Giants
AP: Ohio St -8.5 @ Michigan
Essay: BYU -7 @ USC
It's a been a bad year for USC. Clay Helton was finally fired. Mr Everything Drake London got hurt. And they have a defense that couldn't stop a middle school offense. Fresh off of UCLA dropping 62, they get the should be PAC-12 south champion BYU Cougers. The Cougs have beaten both Arizona schools, PAC-12 South champ Utah, and Washington St. With the quit strong for a USC team playing out the string, I'm taking the better side here and giving the points.
Essay: Nebraska - A lot has been made about 3-8 Nebraska initially being a 3 pt favorite over 9-2 #16 Iowa. And on the surface that's weird. I think it has been well documented that Nebraska is much better than their record, although part of your record is not shambolically blowing game after game. I mean they have found some amazing ways this year. The fumble against Michigan. Losing a game to a team they held to ZERO first downs in the whole second half. It really is next level stuff. And this week Martinez is out which shifted the line from -3 to Pk/+1. While I think Martinez is a decent enough player, he has always had the penchant for the big screw up and that has contributed to their record. As such, it's not the end of the world he is out for this one. Nebraska has continued to try all year and they probably will again here vs. Iowa. Nebraska for the essay.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Washington St.
Penn St.
Florida Gators
New York Giants
All play: Michigan
Colorado +24 / Utah - Essay and POTY
ReplyDeleteAs usual, let's go to the biggest letdown spot on the board. Utah absolutely trounced Oregon last week. The stats were closer than the 38-7 final score would indicate, but UO basically rolled over after that punt return right before halftime. The Buffs come to town having won 2 of their past 3, and are 3-3 since a 1--4 start to the season. Their offense is sad and uninspired, but they run the ball and don't turn it over often. The Utes clearly feeling good about themselves, and might be looking forward to the conference championship game rematch with the Ducks. They aren't going to the CFP playoff, so style points for a blowout doesn't help them. Final home game might see a few backups getting into the game when they're up by 17 late. They'll keep rolling here, I don't see the Buffs as able to do much besides put up a fight but that's what they'll get and 24 is too much to cover. POTY in a combined let down, look ahead spot.
Michigan +8.5
DeletePenn State -2 / MSU
DeleteTulsa +7 / SMU
Cal +6.5
DeleteBrowns +4
Deletenc state -6 at home (v north carolina)
ReplyDeletemichigan + 8.5 ap
wisconsin -7 at minnesota
patriots -6.5 at home v titans
Deletebucs -3 at colts
ravens -4 at home v browns
Washington St -1
ReplyDeleteAP: OSU -8.5
wasnt' paying attention, but just realized that Wash St pick came at the buzzer...let me know if I need to scratch that one for another
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTitans +6.5
DeleteDolphins +2
Texans -2.5
WFT -0.5 (use this game as a replacement for the Wash St game if the committee will not allow that biscuit. see above post)
Essay: Vikings +3.5
Essayed the Vikings last week for a cop out biscuit and it worked out. But this week I'm essaying the Vikings for an entirely different reason. Vegas has the spread at more than a FG for some reason. We all know this game will come down to a FG in the last minute of the game like pretty much every other game the Vikings have played this season. Here's to praying the Vikings are on the winning end of that kick to pull off the road win. SKOL!
Ugh I guess all-play OSU, this feels like picking the Titans
ReplyDeleteVikings +3.5 over 49ers
DeleteTexans -2.5 over Jets
Rams -1 over Packers
WFT -0.5 over Seahawks
Essay Eagles -3.5 over Giants — I’ve missed on four essays in a row so it would be fair to say I’m approaching this with less than 100% confidence. Nevertheless, let’s take a look: The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator and “sources” are leaking to the media that the GM is next. The Eagles are trending in the right direction against mediocre opposition (Saints, Broncos) and the Giants are, at best, mediocre opposition. DVOA mismatches of this order (#12 vs #25) usually mean laying at least a TD. The best argument for the Giants here is that I am essaying against them — which, don’t get me wrong, may well be enough.
Colts +3
ReplyDeleteJags +2
OSU -8.5
Army +3.5
North Texas +10.5 (Essay)
Penn St -2
I’m happy to report that I didn’t send anyone to the hospital this year trying to score a deal on a Blu-Ray player. Black Friday seems to be less of a thing, which is a-ok by me.
I know that UTSA is ranked and has racked up a perfect tally this season. Should they finish the season with a perfect record, can they claim to be national champs similar to how UCF did in 2017? Both schools are on a roll heading into this week. UTSA has been winning of course, but they’re not usually doing so in a blowout fashion against anyone decent. They may very well win this one, just not by 11 or more. For some reason games in whatever conference this is easily becoming high-scoring affairs settled by one score, and in OT. I don’t see UNT losing by a good amount at home after they’ve gotten their act together.
Ohio Stave over Michigan
ReplyDeleteAuburn +19 vs Alabama
Eagles -3.5 over Giants
Chargers -3 over Broncos
Ravens -4 vs Browns
Lamar is back after his battle with non-covid (or maybe it was the omicron variant.) Jackson has a 4-1 mark against the Browns with an 85.8 Total QBR. Fun fact, that is the second-highest Total QBR of any quarterback against a single opponent since the metric was first tracked in 2006. Hollywood Brown should also be back which means the Ravens offense is likely to start clicking again. Compare that with Baker who is 2-4 vs the Ravens and is still playing with one shoulder and no heart. At least he is off the injury report. Crazy to think what that Browns offense would look like with Allen or Lamar instead but hey at least they didn't take Rosen or Darnold!
Buckeyes -8.5
ReplyDeleteMore to follow
Pats -6.5
DeleteRams -1
Browns +4
Seattle +0.5
Essay: Broncos +3
Skip week cause traveling
1. AP: OSU -8.5 @ UM
ReplyDelete2. Chargers -3 @ Broncos
Delete3. Vikings +3.5 @ 49ers
4. Rams -1 @ Packers
5. Panthers -2 @ Dolphins
6. Essay: Ravens -4 vs. Browns
How does one recover from Ohio State getting steamrolled by Michigan? How about watching the Browns get steamrolled by the Ravens in prime time.
Baker Mayfield can't throw the ball right now. The defense apparently doesn't make adjustments. Everything is gloom and doom for an team sitting over .500. While I might generally think this would be a perfect spot for the Browns to come out and surprise everyone I'm far to dejected and down to have any hope. Ravens run all over the Browns at will much like Michigan did to OSU. Ravens by a bunch.
michigan +8.5 osu
ReplyDeleteauburn +19 bama
ucla -6.5 cal
colts +3 vs bucs
DeleteIm going to go ahead and grab this home dog with momentum. Colts have won five of six. Theyre doing it with Mayfield level production out of Wentz.. but they're doing it. All three of the Bucs' losses were on the road. Frank Reich has built a contender again and exceeded expectations. Lucas Field and excited Hoosiers will account for a touchdown to put Colts over the top.
ravens -4 vs browns
wft -0.5 vs seahawks
i cant do it. switch me to the browns +4 tonight.
DeleteMichigan +8.5 over OSU
ReplyDeleteTitans +6.5 over Pats
DeleteTexans -2.5 over Jets
Bengals -4 over Steelers
Vikings +3.5 over 49ers
Essay: Browns +4 over Ravens
DeleteIt's not an understatement to say that the Browns' season is on the line tonight, and I think they'll show up for it. Ian Rapoport reported this morning that Baker is the healthiest he's been since Week 2, and getting Kareem Hunt and Jack Conklin back will provide a sorely needed boost to the offense. The Ravens aren't as good as their record indicates, IMO--they've played a ton of close games, including many against inferior opponents, and with JOK in the lineup I don't expect Lamar to feast on the Browns' D as much as he did last year (more than anything else, these two games against the Ravens are what the Browns drafted JOK for). I like the Browns outright tonight, setting up a huge rematch with the Ravens in two weeks.
Osu
ReplyDeleteRavens -4
DeleteIts no secret that special teams scoring is my favorite part of the game of football. Fake punts, long field goals, and the best part- the possibility of a fair catch kick. The last fair catch kick attempt was 2019, a missed 60 yard field goal by the Panthers. The last successful fair catch kick was in 1976 by Ray Wersching of the San Diego Chargers (45 yards) and the longest successful attempt was 52 yards by the Green Bay Packers. My previous favorite player, the now retired Adam Vinatieri, has now been replaced by Jason Tucker. This Ravens kicker seems like the most likely current player to get a chance to do a fair catch kick as he has a combination of the current longest kick and a coach willing to take chances. And I can watch the game on my phone since it is on NBC and of course I pay for a Peacock subscription so I can watch my true sports love-cycling.
San Fran -3.5
Rams -1
Titans +6.5
Steelers +4