Cheddar Bay Week 11: #7 Michigan State +19.5 at #4 Ohio State
Ohio State's offense is clicking, but my goodness doesn't 19.5 points seem like a lot for an Ohio State team that is 5-4-1 ATS? Then again, Ohio State just smashed the same Purdue team that neutered Michigan State the week prior. Well, this is why we play Reality Football.
Reminder: weekly prizes start this week! So if you are down their in the standings with me, or even further down by Patridge, this is your shot at redemption. Win the week and get paid. We still have some math to do and bills to collect before we give the exact amount of weekly prizes, but historically you get about as much as your entry fee was in the first place.
Side note: if you have a thing for torture, you can see the entire 1998 Nick Saban led MSU shocker here. I was in the front row ready to rush the field when Joe Germaine got picked to lose the game. It was a sad day, but at least I felt vindicated for being a Stanley Jackson guy.
Ball state +2.5
ReplyDeleteLast nights win and loss, EMU and BGSU
Late late game essay. Kickoff is 11:30 PM EST. San Diego Aztecs -11 vs UNLV Rebels. San Diego gets to travel to Sin City and play in the fancy new Raiders Stadium and try not to lose big time like they did 3 years ago. There is a weird ESPN article that says their punter is their most dangerous weapon. So he is good and leads the nation in punting and is on pace to set an FBS record, but if your team is really really good, you don’t need a good punter. ESPN really likes him though as there is another article that says he is college football’s must-see attraction. Totally worth staying up to 3:30 EST for the experience. Araiza is a computer science major who reported “ from the snap to when I kick the ball, it needs to be under 2.1 seconds, and the snap takes around 0.7, so that leaves me 1.4 seconds to work with.” Sounds like a good bet to me.
DeleteMichigan st
DeleteBrowns
DeletePlaying Buffalo +1.5 in this wild NIU contest
ReplyDeleteMSU +19.5 over OSU - All play/Essay
DeleteIowa St +4 over Oklahoma
SMU +11 over Cincinnati
Packers -2.5 over Vikings
Jags +6.5 over 49ers
No way I wasn't going to essay this one.
DeleteI know my Purdue pick didn't hit, but I feel ok with my analysis. Purdue lost two fumbles, TO margin was -2, it happens.
Same OSU team I described before. Their offense is elite via air and ground, but the defense is vulnerable. They allowed O'Connell to have another terrific day, but OSU was essentially averaging 9 yards per play. You give them +2 turnovers and forget it.
However, this is game 4 of a pretty tough 5 game closing stretch for the Buckeyes. It's very difficult to be that sharp in back to back weeks for any college football team. They played mistake-free football against Purdue, but we'll see if they can carry that over.
MSU is going to give the Bucks everything they got. We saw MSU's resolve against Michigan, hammering away with Walker and making a few clutch throws to mount a 16 point comeback. Kenneth Walker is what I think spares MSU Purdue's fate. Purdue got down early and was forced to throw basically every down. Even though that was largely successful, it meant that Purdue could not control the clock and allowed OSU to focus their defense. MSU does not need to pass to score quickly. With Walker chewing up yards and clock, that will limit OSU's plays on offense and thus the amount of chances they have to break a long TD with Olave or Henderson.
MSU's defense may also get a benefit here of playing a team that is not great at red zone conversions. Trading a few FGs for TDs could keep this close.
To be honest, the numbers aren't really in favor of MSU. You got a good MSU offense against a bad OSU defense, and an elite OSU offense against a terrible MSU defense. OSU earned this line with their destruction of the Boilermakers, but worse MSU teams have beaten just as good or better OSU teams. The newest highest paid state employee in Michigan has his team playing with too much pride to take a 20 point beat down.
Not putting money on it and not saying anyone else should, but we're ride or die with the Spartans tomorrow.
(If you do want to lay the action down, here's some other plays I like, although lines might be outdated:)
Nevada -1.5 over Air Force/over 52.5
San Diego St -10.5 over UNLV, over 41
UF/Mizzou over 69.5
Wake +4 over Clemson
Iowa St +155 ML
SMU +350 ML
Arkansas +20.5 over Bama
Michigan -15 over Maryland, over 56.5
Nebraska/Wisconsin over 42
UTSA -4.5 over UAB
Oregon/Utah under 59
MSU +19.5 for one point in the all play.
ReplyDeleteFlying back to Ohio for the game. 16 year old me was also at the 1998 game. Have never heard the Shoe so funereal. It was crazy.
Louisville -20 over Duke
DeleteWake Forest 4.5 over Clemson
DeleteThis is my no-essay week.
DeleteLouisville (W)
Wake (L)
MSU (L)
Texans 10 over Titans
Cowboys 2.5 over Chefs
Three pointer: Bills -7 over Indi
1) Louisville -20 @ Duke
ReplyDelete2) Air Force +1.5 @ Nevada
DeleteAP) Ohio St -19.5 v Michigan St.
Delete3) Oregon +3 @ Utah
Delete4) Texans +10 @ Titans
Essay) Michigan -14.5 @ Maryland
Lookahead? Sure. But it doesn't matter. Michigan will win by 30 setting up next week's showdown with the rivals from down south. It's the kind of meaningless statement win Harbaugh typically delivers, raising the hopes in that state up north before the Big, Bad Buckeyes roll into town. Michigan's D-line will terrorize Taulia Taovailloa. Michigan's run game will slice up that defense. The Worlverines will look competent or better passing as they hand 40-50 on the Terps. And the Wolves will try to carry that momentum back to Ann Arbor next Saturday. I wonder what will heppen then?
Falcons +6ish over Pats for one point please
ReplyDeleteArkansas +21 over Bama; Maryland +14.5 over Mich.
DeleteTime for more Saturday evening conspiracy theories with old Frowner. Looking at the CFP rankings, make the safe assumptions that Cincy, Notre Dame, and Ohio State aren’t gonna lose, and you’ve got a bit of a logjam here with these three teams, plus Georgia, Alabama, and, well, is Oregon gonna be there with one loss and a huge early-season win against Ohio State or not?
DeleteFirst assume Ohio State is in; Plus at least the Georgia/Bama winner and maybe (if not probably?) the loser.
It would be especially hard to argue that Georgia, Bama, and tOSU aren’t the three most attractive teams if Bama wins the SEC title game in a non-blowout, having Oregon in the field at that point helps the committee avoid the disaster of having to choose between undefeated Cincy and a marginally more attractive Notre Dame squad while also pleasing the corporate masters at Nike, restoring some semblance of conference parity letting a PAC-12 team in the playoff for the first time since ?????, and minimizing complaints about Ohio State getting in over an Oregon team that beat them.
And it would seem the committee would still want Oregon there even if Georgia beats Bama because having to choose two out of three among undefeated Cincy, one-loss ND, and two-loss Bama would be a lot less savory for them than only having to choose one of those teams.
So I will fly with the Ducks and the free field goal tonight to get the win over “ranked” (LOL) Utah. And hell just make it my P.O.T.Y. to see if I can’t jump start my sorry season here, which might as well go out with a sad quack if I lose.
michigan st +19.5 (ap)
ReplyDeleteoklahoma -4 (at home v iowa)
app state -9.5 at troy
11/21/21
Deletemia dolphins -3 at nyj
bengals -1 at lv raiders
cowboys + 2.5 at kc chiefs essay
the browns exposed kc in last year's playoff game. all due respect to eric bieniemy, this year's offense is a continuation of last year's collapse. tyreek hill is a genuine threat, so is cee dee lamb. something is off w mahomes and prescott is dialed in. dallas getting points? have to take it.
give me the cowboys +2.5
Msu +19.5 vs OSU
ReplyDeleteAlabama -21 vs Arkansas
Oregon +3 vs Utah
Chiefs -2.5 vs COwboys
POTW
Chargers -6 vs Pittsburgh
Looks I want to hate the Chargers, the owner sucks. He blocked the Raiders from coming back to LA so they went to Vegas, and that has proven to be the disaster most thought it would be. However, as much as I hate to admit it, the Chargers will crush the Steelers with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Even if it is Ben, I can't imagine 2 weeks of no practice is good for this years version of the QB who retired one year too late. The Chargers have plenty of weapons in Allen and Ekeler and WIlliams is due for his monthly eruption before he goes dormant till Christmas. The Chargers finally have some semblance of a kicker and a coach who understands how clocks work. Tomlin is going to look mad as hell on the sideline, especially since he blew off a free dinner from USC brass on Saturday.
Appalachian State -9.5
ReplyDeleteMichigan -14.5
Oklahoma State -11
Dallas +2.5
AP - Michigan State +19.5
Essay - Seattle +2.5 over Arizona
I have been waiting all season to see Arizona on the losing end of a one-off beatdown. Yet it hasn't happened yet - even with Colt McCoy at the helm. However, the Cards have played some tight divisional games this year and their particular division will produce upsets (as evidenced by SF's rout of the Rams). Further, Seattle will have some motivation brewing given their dismal performance a week ago against Green Bay. Let's give Russell Wilson another week to recover from an outlier performance and the Seahawks keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
Note to the committee...
ReplyDeleteI had the Vikings as a pick last week and looks like it wasn't marked correctly. Should have had five biscuists instead of four. If the committee would update that, that would be appreciated. Gracias.
Oregon +3
DeleteNotre Dame -17
AP: OSU -19.5
Titans -10
DeleteChiefs -2.5
Vikings +2.5
I'll figure out which of these NFL games to essay by Sunday. SKOL!
Essay: Vikings +2.5
DeleteEssay: Vikings +2.5
I hate essaying my squad because it's a total cop out. The Vikings are probably the best of the lousy teams in the NFL or, put differently yet the same, they are the lousiest of the best teams in the NFL. Their five losses have been by a combined 18 points, two of which were in OT. They also have two walk off wins. I honestly don't know if they are good or bad, but their record seems to reflect their overall play. The Vikings are the only team in the NFL that has lead all of theirs games by at least 7 points at some point. Maybe they should be undefeated?!? We know they can score (inconsistently for sure), but finishing seems to be the bigger problem. Even so, the Vikings have sneakily been one of the NFL's best defenses surrenduring the eighth fewest expected points added per play, whatever that means. Stupid stats that I don't understand are dumb.
Moving on, the Packers have not scored more than 24 points in the last five weeks yet they have gone 4-1 with their only loss being when Rodgers was out with COVID. Maybe even more impressive is the fact that other than when they got blown out in Week 1, the Packers have covered the spread in 9 straight games.
The Vikings are 10-4 as home dogs under Zimmer and 4-0 as division home dogs. They get Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith back which should give their depleted secondary a boost, while the Packers will be without Bakhtiari, Jones, Lazard and Alexander. Vikings not only cover, but get the W at home and remind the Packers that "objects in the mirror ar closer than they appear." We're comming! SKOL!
Michigan St +19.5
ReplyDeleteMinnesota -7 (Essay)
Oregon +3
Appalachian St -9.5
Chiefs -2.5
Bears +5
Concerning the All Play, that’s just too many points to not take. I probably missed the headline that Michigan St replaced all their scholarship starters with the champs from intramural flag football A division.
While week to week swings can happen, last week Rutgers trounced Indiana on the road. If ever there was an indicator of a team not being good, hosting Rutgers and getting crushed is it. Minnesota is better than Rutgers I’d say, or at the very least on a par. Indiana’s season is slipping away and they’re coming off 2 poor offensive showings in a row. I don’t see them keeping it competitive with Minnesota this week.
Ohio State -19.5
ReplyDelete49-0 OSU at the half... I'd say MSU fielded the intramural B champs instead of the A champs
DeleteWisconsin - 8.5
DeleteBadgers defense just playing unconscious lockdown football recently.
Utah -3 / Oregon - ESSAY
DeleteI'm a sucker for this kind of line, the lower ranked team laying points. In this case, laying points to a team currently in the CFP top 4. Around these parts all the Ducks fans and alumni are talking like they already won this game, and when they start to sound like that it's usually a good time to think about picking against them. That's not really enough rationale for an essay. I'll just point out that Utah has won 17 of their last 18 at home. They match up well against the Ducks, and I don't think UO has been the same team since CJ Verdell went down. I see Utah's QB Cam Rising as the difference maker here. Oregon hasn't matched up with anything resembling a dynamic QB this year aside from Stroud, and that was back in week 2 before Stroud had figured it out. Gimme the Utes.
Jags +6.5
DeleteTexans +10
DeleteCowboys +2.5
Delete1. AP: OSU -19.5 vs. MSU
ReplyDelete2. Browns -11 vs. Lions
Delete3. Dolphins -3 @ Jets
4. Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
5. Packers -2.5 @ Vikings
6. Essay: Panthers -3.5 vs. WFT
Living in the Charlotte area I've had to hear about this game non-stop all week. Pick your poison between the return of Cam or the return of Ron, fans around here are excited for this game.
I love the Carolina defense when they show up, and I fully expect them to show up today. Cam might be getting the "start" this week but I'm not sure we've heard the last of PJ (Phillip?) Walker. He moved the team down the field well and I suspect we see more of him then some might want to believe given his knowledge of the playbook. Is Robbie Anderson a thing again...? I'm thinking so.
WFT is fresh off an emotional win vs. Tampa, at the expense of losing Chase Young for the year. Antonio Gibson looks like he may have shaken the injury that's been bugging him putting in a workhorse like performance against a great run defense. I don't like his chances for a big day today. I don't like Scary Terry's chances for a big day either. So I can't really get behind a team whose main two weapons I expect to be shut down.
Panthers fans are going to show up and make the stadium rocking. Cam and all the others players are going to feed off that and get a big win today.
Kent -13 at Akron
ReplyDeleteSparty +19.5 at OSU
BC -2.5 vs FSU
Pack -2.5 at Vikes
Cards -2.5 at Seahawks
Chargers -6 vs Steelers
essay on a pro game tomorrow!
essay the chargers
Deletebig ben is playing as is justin herbert. joey bosa is palying as is nick bosa. the bosas cancel. but herbert is the future and ben is the past. not hating on the steelers because theyre steelers but this just is not their year. give me the 38 year old udayton qb over mike tomlin.
AP: MSU +19.5 vs OSU
ReplyDeleteEP: Browns -11 vs Lions
Kitty Pryde and I are going to this game as we are in NE Ohio for the holiday week.
I'll take the clowns once again in a bounce back, get right game at home against the hapless Lions. Some guy named Boyle is the Lions starting quarterback. Even a conservative game plan should yield several running touchdowns and play action concepts to some wide open tight ends for the browns. Activate Chubb and Felton and Greedy and Takk and the clowns are bringing in reinforcements at the right time. hopefully case keenum plays and the browns can enjoy some consistency and dependability from the quarterback position that baker seems to be missing.
Panthers -3.5 vs WFT
Giants +11 vs Bucs
Chargers -6 vs Steelers
Packers -2.5 vs Vikings
Taking Michigan State and the points for the all play, will update spreadsheet later
ReplyDeleteCowboys +2.5 over Chiefs
DeleteBengals -1 over Raiders
Ravens -5 over Bears
Eagles -1.5 over Saints
Essay Browns -11 over Lions — Last week was a hilarious failure so let’s try the exact same thing again, not just out of stubbornness but because the Browns genuinely should have a big advantage here at home and running the heck out of the ball against the Lions, who are legitimately bottom of the barrel both offensively and defensively. This is basically the thought process that led me to essay the Bengals over the Jets, down to the fact that the Lions are starting an unheralded guy at QB due to injury. So, yes, I essayed against Mike White in that one game where he threw for 400 yards and got to be on the back page of all the tabloids, Mike White made me look like an idiot, but Tim Boyle, sir, is no Mike White. Or at least I hope not, God knows.
Lamar Jackson is inactive and I am going to audible out of the Ravens pick and replace it with... oh no... 49ers -6.5 over Jags
DeleteMSU +19.5
ReplyDeleteMore to follow
Browns -11 (v Lions) Bills -7 (v Colts)
DeleteDolphins -3.5 (v Jets)
Eagles -1.5 (v Saints)
Essay: Vikings +2.5 (v Packers)
I listened to some discussion on this game and it is fair to say that Green Bay is a few lucky bounces away from being 5-5 right now, while Minnesota is a few lucky bounces away from being 8-1. Yes, Minnesota is extremely close to being 8-1 right now. These records for both teams are inflated in opposite directions more than any other teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, Green Bay will be playing this game without 4 starters on defense Jaire Alexander, Whitney Mercilus, Zadarious Smith, and Rashaan Gary; in addition to Aaron Jones on offense. While Minnesota will be welcoming back their star safety and starting center from the Covid reserve list. Having said all that, based on my weak performance I am sure this game will end with Packers winning by 3.
1. Oklahoma -4
ReplyDelete2. Baylor -1
3. SMU +11
4. Bengals -1
All Play – Michigan State +19.5
Essay – Ravens -5 @ Bears
Bounce back for the Ravens. Bears have plenty of momentum in the losing direction. There’s nothing quite as disgusting as a Head Coach saying it’s everyone’s fault, particularly when it is specifically your problem (hence when you’re off the sideline with COVID the team looks great). Add in the depression that follows Kahlil Mack’s IR for the rest of the year. The Ravens looks terrible for 90% of the game last Thursday at the dolphins. Easy to look ahead, easy to assume you’d roll through and Tua had something different to say. I think the extra two days of rest after a tough loss allows a lot of guys to get healthy, do some soul searching about if you want to be a team that loses to the fishes, OR go win the AFC North. On the positive side, Lamar seems to be getting comfortable throwing the deep balls to Hollywood and Mark Andrews and Bateman are insane targets in the 5-15 yard zone.
AP: Will follow the crowd on MSU +19.5 @ OSU. Better ATS record is enough for me.
ReplyDeleteStanford +1.5 vs California
DeleteJaguars +6.5 vs.Niners
DeletePackers -2.5 @ Vikings
Bengals -1 @ Raiders
***Cowboys +2.5 @ Chiefs
Both teams coming off of big wins scoring 40+ points last week. The Chiefs really need this one to stay in contention. But most of their other wins have come against teams with losing records, except beating a Rogers-less Green Bay team by only 6 points. The Cowboys will be a real test. Dallas has a much more balanced team, good offense, and top 10 defense. The Chiefs are bottom tier defense for both pass and the rush. And really underperforming against the spread, only covering 3 times where the Cowboys are 8-1 ATS. The difference lies in the defense that can keep the other QB off the field for any length of time, and that’s where KC may fall short.
I'll take MSU for the all-play.
ReplyDeleteBears +5 over Ravens
DeleteSaints +1.5 over Eagles
Cowboys +2.5 over Chiefs
Vikings +2.5 over Packers
Essay: Dolphins -3 over Jets
My essay comes down to six words: The Jets are starting Joe Flacco. If this sounds tragically familiar, that's because it is. Flacco started four games for the Jets last year, going 0-4 with a 80.6 passer rating and a 50.8 QBR. In other words, he was absolutely abysmal, and there's no reason to think this year will go any differently. Meanwhile, although the Dolphins' season has no doubt been disappointing, they're at least on a two-game winning streak and have had extra time to prepare for this one. Also, the fact that Belichick has stymied the Jets twice this year makes me confident in Brian Flores' ability to do the same. Dolphins by a million.
Shoot missed the All Play which would have been Ohio st.
ReplyDeleteEssay: Kansas St.: Baylor in off a huge win vs. absolute trash heap Oklahoma. Very tricky spot here and definitely a medium level scheduling flat spot. Kansas St is decent, experienced QB, and a weird place to play. I haven't been super high on Baylor all year and am overall down on the Big 12 as a whole. Late season cannibalization seems highly likely. Line move is also favorable here as this has bumped from Pk to -2.5 over the week although it does have a bit of a sharp/square scent.
Others:
Utah Utes
UCLA Bruins
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Dallas Cowboys