Cheddar Bay Week 10: NC State +2.5 at Wake Forest
The battle for ACC Atlantic supremacy won over the executive committee. Sure, that is not a sentence, nor is this a matchup, that Cheddar Bay has featured before, but consider the beauty of how this means Dabo and Clemson stink this year. And with a 66.5 over/under, it should be a fun one to watch.
Also, weekly winners start next week! Correspondingly, as we are running this game of honor on the honor system, please get your payments over to Frowns if you have not already so we will be able to make the weekly payouts in a timely manner.
Carrying over my NIU +2.5 win over Ball St and Western Mich -25 loss to Akron.
ReplyDeleteWake -2.5 over NC State - AP
Purdue +20.5 over OSU - Essay
Lions +9.5 over Steelers
Browns +2 over Patriots
At this point I just need to let it ride on Purdue.
It is endlessly frustrating to me that this program under Jeff Brohm is the "Spoilermakers" but otherwise plays in a terrible division that they never win. What is the point of beating top 5 teams if you are going to go 8-4 because Wisconsin and Minnesota are just too much?
However, having looked deeper into Purdue's season I think that may be a little unfair to them. They dominated Minnesota but had turnover problems and a couple of missed red zone opportunities. No excuses, but in a fairly evenly matched game a TO margin of -2 will cost you. Purdue committed a whopping 5 turnovers and had a -3 margin against Wisconsin, which they lost big despite holding Wisconsin to a 3rd down conversion rate of 9%. The Notre Dame game, easily the most understandable loss since it was an early season game where they had not gotten the offense on track with Aiden O'Connell, was the same story: -2 TO margin, otherwise fairly even game. Even the Illinois win, which looks extremely ugly, had a -2 TO margin.
So now you're thinking, ok decent team that gives the ball away like crazy, how is that positive? Well they are actually even in TO margin on the year, thanks to +4 against Nebraska, +1 against MSU, and +3 against Iowa. Given the inherent randomness in turnovers, a deviation is certainly possible to create a 20+ point less but I won't assume it's coming. Also, Aiden O'Connell has gotten much better with the football: 8 TDs vs 3 picks in his brutally challenging 4 game stretch against Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. He's completed 75% of his passes in those games. This is a red hot QB coming in to play an OSU defense that is way more vulnerable than people realize.
Now on to OSU. I am going to keep beating the "OSU is overrated" drum until they beat a real team by double digits. The insistence that this OSU team is elite is based on reputation and the following game results:
OSU 45, Minnesota 31 (a week zero game in which the Gophers gained 400 yards of offense)
OSU 41, Tulsa 20
OSU 59, Akron 7
OSU 52, Rutgers 13
OSU 66, Maryland 17
OSU 54, Indiana 7
I mean, credit for taking care of business, but this is not anything that can't also be accomplished by Michigan, and Purdue would not be a 20 point underdog against Michigan. Tulsa and Akron are absolutely miserable this year. Indiana had no QB. And has everyone finally noticed that Maryland is garbage too? Their total point margin in conference games (excluding the OSU game) this year is -66, thanks to multiple three score blowouts and a pair of three point wins. Yippee.
(BTW, If MSU doesn't beat those clowns by 20 this week I'm going to be furious)
Sure, OSU has also beat solid teams. But no one looks at 9 point wins against PSU and Nebraska and thinks "national title contender" when those are the only two recent resume wins. Their most impressive win was in week zero. This is a team riding reputation, plain and simple.
There's nothing about this matchup that says OSU -20.5. Purdue moneyline at +760 is amazing value. I'm not necessarily expecting Purdue to win, but I would make them and the points my POTY if I still had it on the board. This is a stone cold lock.
Talk about boilering up. Just an excellent essay here, Sir.
DeleteOK, he talked me into this one.
DeletePhew well feeling kinda sheepish posting what I have in store here after having seen the effort put forth by the Briles exonerator above but let me just briefly tell you about how in my younger days when University of Pittsburgh hoops was often a high seed in the big dance, call them the DeJuan Blair days, I used to often think they were a good dark-horse-ish pick to win it all so I'd do it and name my bracket "Pickets to Tittsburgh" and think I was a real clever guy.
ReplyDeleteNeedless to say this year's U. Pitt football team and QB Kenny .... wait for it ... Pickett(!!!) ... is stirring up some of that old vigor inside me and, well, it's thirsty Thursday for us football voters, and I have some free inside info for you all that our good buddy ChuckKoz will be at the game tonight against UNC, who's coming off that big win over Wake, so who am I to do anything other than punch my ticket for 3 points on Pittsburgh (-6.5)? That's right folks Peter picker puts 3 points on Pickett's Panthers.
Will go for a point on Ravens -7.5 over Dolphins as well. 4 more to come.
Tennessee +20 over Georgia
DeletePurdue +20.5 over tOSU
NC State for the All Play
Delete1) Pitt -7 v North Carolina
ReplyDeleteAP) Wake Forest -2.5 v NC State
2) Eagles +3 @ Broncos
Delete3) Ohio St -20.5 v Purdue: This game screams "Vegas wants you to take Purdue", so I'm going this way.
4) Rutgers +6.5 @ Indiana
Essay) Notre Dame -5.5 @ Virginia
I've hit 5 straight essays, so the smart money is to fade me this week. But if you want to ride along, I'm on the Domers here. Virginia lacks for defense. Just abysmal on that particular side of the ball. Notre Dame is an above average team. They play decent defense and should be able to get enough stops to say on top. Offensively they are just OK, but due to the afore mentioned terrible Virginia defense, this is where the mismatch exists. Ultimately, that should be enough for the Irish to take the roadie to Charlottesville, play with their food for 2 1/2 quarters and pull out a 7-14 point win.
Ravens -7.5 for my nfl vote
ReplyDeleteEarly week win Akron
DeleteEarly week loss SUNY Buffalo
New votes
Utah st +5 v San Jose
New Mexico +24.5 v Fresno
NC state essay
I’m in NC now sans family on a hiking trip staying in a beautiful cabin in the mountains. It’s a toss up between the North Carolina schools on the trip as one of my cabin mates is a Professor at Wake, but I’ve got to go with 4 year old Greg’s favorite -the Wolfpack. I asked him why it they were is favorite and he told me “because wolves are my second favorite animal after eagles.” He does not however care about the Eagles football team. We once saw a guy at country made ice cream with a Wolfpack wrestling shirt on and Greg was pretty excited. The guy said both his sons went there and told Greg maybe he could go there too someday. Good enough for a vacation essay
Gimme the Deacons -2.5 over the Pack for one on the AP
ReplyDeleteWF (W)
DeleteBrowns 2 over Pats
Panthers 10.5 over Arizona
Titans -3 over NO
Vikes 2.5 over LAC
Essay: Bills -13.5 over Jets
Was tempted to make this POTY, but only going with a three pointer.
It’s hard to envision a worse loss for the Bills than last week in Jacksonville. But alas, it happened. This is a perfect get-right spot for the Bills, whose defense continues to crush it. Now that they have some film on Mike White, I can’t see the Jets getting anything going. Meanwhile, Jets are dead last in defensive DVOA. Bills in a romp.
Bills -13.5
ReplyDeleteSyracuse +3.5
Michigan State -12.5
Oklahoma State -13
AP - NC State +2.5
Essay - Tampa Bay -9.5 over Washington
I'm switching up strategies yet again after trusting my gut last week with my failed All-Cincinnati theme....(and not trusting my gut by grabbing an easy point with the Dolphins Thursday night).
This brings me to a more scientific approach in taking some quality teams ATS....but my Essay pick naturally goes against this strategy - so again, I'm trusting my gut and taking Brady and the Bucs, who have proven to be the league's only consistent top team outside of Arizona (and Colt f-ing McCoy). Although I should note that WFT has proven to be horrific against the spread - along with being a dark horse worst team in the league candidate.
The clincher for me is the low-key petty Brady revenge game against WFT and the legend of Taylor Heinecke, who probably was talked about more than Brady after last year's wild card game. At this point in his insanely productive career, Brady's sources of motivation have to come from some obscure and often manufactured places.
Wake -2.5
ReplyDeleteOklahoma -5.5
Georgia Tech -2
Virgina +5.5
Titans -3 (Essay)
WFT +9.5
As I watch USA vs. Mexico, to be followed later by an episode of Narcos, it’s hopefully a good evening of coin flipping skillfully choosing the winners of football contests. The Titans are the best team nobody is talking about. The Bills are garnering attention for finally giving the team a legit shot and for having crazy fans. The Titans are on a roll with wins. The Saints have lost Jameis Winston, and have been inconsistent. I don’t see them winning on the road against a top tier AFC team with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at the helm. Titans should win here comfortably.
NC State +2.5
ReplyDeleteSaints +3 / Titans - Essay
DeleteSurprisingly low line here. Seems like the right time to go against the Titans, winners of 5 straight, best record in the AFC coming off a big win at the Rams, 28-16. But, looking at the stats in the Titans first game without Derrick Henry they only mustered 194 total yards of offense. They won the game because Matthew Stafford crapped his pants for about 12 seconds in the 2nd quarter, essentially giving away 14 points. Then the Rams settled for field goals on three long drives. Tannehill only passed for 143, and Julio Jones will be out this week making his job even more difficult. The Saints will be starting Trevor Siemian, a step down from Jameis Winston but I like Sean Payton's ability to game plan here and pick up a road win.
Browns +2
DeleteVikings +2.5
Seahawks +3.5
Colts -10
Troy +7 vs ULL
ReplyDeleteWake -2.5 vs NCST
Browns +2 at Pats
POTY. That Odell thing cannot be overestimated. The Browns offense was night and day better without him last year and last week's game demonstrated the same. It really seems apparent that OBJ was doing his own thing and as 'schemy' as this offense is... it can't succeed without everyone being in the right place. I hate Chubb-Hunt-Felton out but I like/love DErnest. The o-line seems to be clicking and I think even that can be traced back to Beckham in that the effective short passing game allows the run game to do more interesting traps and pulls with the (all-pro level) guards. As for the Pats, first off, three of the five wins were Jets and Texans. Last week it was against a team so desperate for decent QB work that it just signed Cam Newton. There's a lot of buzz about playoffs with this team locally and with the size of this metro, it's possible Pats betting has provided some value in this line. Isaiah Wynn has put together a couple highly rated PFF scores recently but he'll be overmatched vs Garrett. JOK returning should make the short passing more difficult. And as well as Mac Jones has played, and he has done all you want from a rookie,,, he is still a rookie. The Browns defense is the most talented he has ever faced. Expect more of the same attack angles that confused the hell out of Burrow last week. I think the Browns win and continue to grow into a team that matches the expectations of summer.
WFT +9.5 vs Bucs
Lions +9.5 at Steelers
Chargers -2.5 vs Vikes
Wake -2.5 vs NC State
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -20 vs Tenn
Purdue +20.5 vs OSU
TItans -3 vs Saints
Essay
Bills -13.5 vs the New York football Jets. Look the Mike White thing is as sad as it has been fun. The media fawns over a rookie fringe QB from Western Kentucky after the Jets have absolutely sent Zach WIlson out to fend for his life game after game. At some point there is enough film for NFL defenses to catch up to a rookie and unfortunately for White this will happen to him this week. I think its unlikely the Buffalo D pitches a 3rd shutout but it very could keep the Jets in the single digits. As for the Bills, they have to be pissed. After the debacle in Jacksonville they are going to be looking to run up the score on a divisional punching bag. The Offense has a legit opportunity to get rolling again. This is one of those weeks where Buffalo shows that they have righted the ship and are ready to dominate the rest of the regular season and get ready for the postseason.
Essay: San Francisco 49ers. I mean come on. This is low, super low. We've had "the Rams are the best team ever" for weeks on blast even though they kind of blow. Seriously, what is good about them? Stafford? Old veteran acquisitions of guys that were basically dumped? Really, not much. Niners have looked absolutely hideous for weeks culminating in a home waxing at the hands of the Colt McCoy Cardinals. I mean this is so gross. There is nothing to like about SF this week at least up front. I'll go with it for the essay.
ReplyDeleteRegulars:
Ohio St.
Missouri Tigers
Virginia Cavs
Cleveland Browns
All play:
NC St.
Northwestern +24.5 @ Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteMN +6 @ Iowa
Louisiana -7 @ Troy
Buc -9.5 @ WFT
All Play: NC State +2.5 @ WF
Essay/POTY: Browns +2 @ NE
The Browns are still a good football team, albeit a flawed one. With both Hunt and Chubb out for this game, one would think they will have trouble moving the ball. I expect the OL to still get a good push upfront. With OBJ and his drama now out of the picture, Baker can certainly feel like "the guy" even more so now and he will play well here. I've been scuffling this year in Cheddar Bay so I need to make a big move here to have a chance. I hope the Browns can hold up their end of the bargain and win a close one in Foxboro... Browns 17 - NE 10
1. Michigan +1
ReplyDelete2. Air Force -2.5
3. Titans -3
4. LA Chargers -2.5
All Play – Wake Forest -2.5
Essay Browns +2
Lots of OH folks on this board so feel free to bash anything I have to say here. I think the end of the OBJ era is a HUGE bump to the Browns. I was forced to watch a lot of Browns football over the last few years and was rarely impressed with him OR the team during the era. Last week was all I needed to see to know the locker room poison was holding the team back. Browns offense certainly has a tough task being down 47 running backs, but using Baltimore as a model – turns out you can still be pretty effective on the ground with some guys of the street and a good scheme. Side note – I think Myles Garrett might go on a DE revenge tour and get 3 or 4 sacks on Mac Jones. Pinned ears and a Rookie QB typically brings turnovers. I honestly don’t know a thing about the Pats this year. They still aren’t the pats of old and neither are the Browns. I could see the browns winning by 10 pretty easily.
NC State +2.5
ReplyDeleteMore to follow....
Falcons +9 (at Cowboys)
DeleteSaints +3 (at Titans)
Lions +9.5 (at Lions)
Panthers +10.5 (at Cardinals)
Essay: Saints +3 (at Titans)
Lets ride with 5 road dogs this Sunday. Road dogs already having a great season and this week seems like a perfect spot for so many. Saints have had some good moments this year and Sean Payton is a good coach that can fix whatever happened last week. Meanwhile, Titans are super overvalued. They were before Henry went down. And there is simply no doubt they will regress without him, no matter what happened last week.
Plus, last week we saw some major letdown spots and seems the Titans could easily follow suit and think they can finally exhale. They've just completed a 4 game gauntlet, against the Bills on MNF, another AFC contender in the Chiefs, an overtime game against divisional rival Colts, and a primetime game on MNF against the Rams. The Titans won all 4 games and now have a 4 game lead in the division with 8 games to go. Titans don't need this game and they know it.
Lastly, Saints have the match-up edge with their #1 rush defense facing a retired Adrian Peterson.
baylor +5.5 at home (v oklahoma)
ReplyDeletetennessee +20 at home (georgia)
wake forest -2.5 (ap)
11/14 -
Deletecolts -10 at home
cardinals -10.5 at home
packers - 3.5 at home
AP: NC State +2.5 @ Wake
ReplyDeletePurdue +20.5 @ OSU
Vikings +2.5 @ Chargers
DeleteBroncos +3 vs. Eagles
Raiders +2.5 vs Chiefs
***Packers -3.5 over Seahawks***POTY
First - Seattle with the #21 team offense vs. Packers #8 team defense. GB is not the power offensive threat they once were, but a more balanced team. When your teammates are your biggest fans, it’s amazing. Packers are 8-1 ATS since that week one aberration. No respect. Seattle has not won at Lambeau since 1999. The people are warm, but it’s cold here. Snowing right now.
Second - Aaron Rogers. Off the rails reaction to his ambiguous answer to a reporter’s personal health question that should not be asked. Only the league and his team need to be aware of any player’s vaccination status. Rogers was probably less likely to spread the virus due to most of the protocols - no mask at the podium of a press conference when you are tested daily is not a sane argument. Don’t get me wrong, these vaccines are a spectacular medical achievement that cannot be understated - for the most vulnerable. Age and baseline health matter greatly. If I were a 30-something professional athlete in his exact circumstances, you better believe I would put in the work to educate myself on all available options. (I do extensive medical research as part of my job, so I’m not completely talking out of my a** here.) He missed one game…as have many of his vaccinated peers. End of story. Statement performance coming.
Third - The OBJ thing: Such a talented guy, so why can’t he find a home? Maybe the problem is you, Odell. So glad he did not end up in Green Bay. Why on earth would he want to play for a northern city that is half the size of Akron and surrounded by farm fields? Because Rogers can make any receiver look better. OBJ would have been miserable here and LA seems more his speed.
oops that's Broncos -3
DeleteWake Forest -2.5 over NC State
ReplyDeleteTexas A&M -2.5 over Ole Miss
LSU +2.5 over Arkansas
Matt (via text) is on the Browns and the Bills this afternoon
DeleteEssay: Rams -4.5 over 49ers
DeleteGiven the way this week has gone for the Browns, there's only one way for it to end: with Odell Beckham looking like his 2014-16 self on Monday Night Football, which seems especially possible now that Robert Woods is out for the season. (I'm still scarred by Braylon Edwards' first game with the Jets after the Browns traded him in 2009 -- a Monday night affair in Miami in which he posted five receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. Fortunately for the Browns, the rest of his NYJ tenure wasn't quite as productive.) The Rams are a good team coming off a bad loss and facing a bad opponent -- they shouldn't have trouble covering 4.5 here. Meanwhile, the Niners just lost to Colt McCoy and seem rather hopeless until they rip off the band-aid and start Trey Lance. But that isn't happening tonight, so Rams it is for my essay.
ND -5.5
ReplyDeleteAP: NC St +2.5
Steelers -9.5
DeleteVikings +2.5
Falcons +9
Essay: Packers -3.5
I'm in LA for the Vikes v Chargers game and almost walked out the door this morning to go tailgating without getting my picks in, so this will be quick, and half-assed, but it's an essay nonetheless.
Rodgers v Russel. Should be a fun, offensive show with both QBs back in the saddle. Rodgers comes out hot after being shamed for gettting COVID. Packers D is sneaky good and has been getting better as the year has progressed. Russel keeps it close but I ride the Packers for another week who got me the POY points last week. Packers kick a late FG to go up by 6. SKOL!
Let's go with Wake Forest -2.5 for the all play
ReplyDelete
DeleteBroncos -3 over Eagles
Chiefs -2.5 over Raiders
Titans -3 over Saints
Lions +9.5 over Steelers
Essay Browns +2 over Patriots — Joining the throng here but honestly this is the most “off” line here. It’s an “upside down” DVOA game (#6 vs #13) against a team with an adequate rookie at QB. I get the caution over crowning D’Ernest Johnson after one game but there’s no way that one game isn’t at least some sort of positive sign. Can I imagine the Browns imploding on the road? None of us has to imagine that, we’ve seen it. But noon is closing in and I don’t like anything else on the slate better, so here we go for 3 biscuits.
1. AP: NC State +2.5 @ Wake
ReplyDelete2. Saints +3 @ Titans
Delete3. Bucs -9.5 @ WFT
4. Chiefs -2.5 @ Raiders
5. Rams -4.5 @ Niners
6. Essay: Browns +2 @ Pats
No Nick Chubb and no Kareem Hunt? No problem part two. This probably won't be the break out party that Johnson enjoyed on Thursday night football, but he's going to do enough to get the play action game working throughout the day. The defense is going to keep the momentum from last week a bring the heat this week against a rookie QB who has been serviceable but less than spectacular.
That Ravens loss to the Dolphins opens up the AFC North even more and the Browns are going to come into this game focused and ready to try and reassert themselves as a division contender.
Wake forest -2.5 vs nc state
ReplyDeleteBrowns +2 vs Pats*
DeleteDoes it get any better than sending away a talented, but ultimately flawed receiver, who did not mesh with the quarterback, and then going out and playing the best game of the year and putting up 40 in the battle of Ohio? The browns secondary was AWESOME against the Bengals. I look for that to continue and as long as the zebras let the boys play, this team is going to be tough to beat. Why aren't the browns taking There is a fancy chart trending this week that showed hat the browns have been hurt the most of any team by penalties this year, whatever that means. signing your two hogs on the line to extensions.
Falcons +9 vs Cowboys
Panthers +10.5 vs Cards
Rams -4.5 vs 49ers
Chiefs -2.5 vs Raiders
Tuesday Maction EMU +6.5, BGSU +17
ReplyDeleteWednesday MACtion Buffalo +1.5 to beat NIU
ReplyDelete