Cheddar Bay Week 8: #6 Michigan -4.5 at #8 Michigan State
With both teams ranked in the Top 10 for the first time since 1964, the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry could be one of the most important games of the season. Cleveland Heights native Mel Tucker sure looks like he has the unbeaten Spartans headed in the right direction in his first real season. Meanwhile, we all know the deal with Harbaugh: he's a booger eater that always loses to Ohio State and often loses to Michigan State, sometimes in the most hilarious fashion imaginable. This one should be a fun way to start off a solid Saturday slate (noon EST on Fox).
MSU +4.5 over Michigan - AP
ReplyDeleteOhio St -18.5 over Penn St - Essay
Illinois +2 over Rutgers
Minnesota -7.5 over Northwestern
Jags +3.5 over Seahawks
Chiefs -9.5 over Giants
Ohio State is primed to eviscerate a reeling Penn State squad that is suddenly on the verge of outright collapse. The Iowa loss was understandable, but they turned around and gave up 350 yards at home against an Illinois team that can't throw. James Franklin then gave a press conference where he thought he was going to play Illinois again, and then said he was looking ahead to this game "at the Big House."
Franklin seems quite obviously on his way to LSU or USC, and while I don't think that will cause them to lose every game from here on out, OSU is not a team you can play with any level of distraction or lack of confidence. While I have some suspicions that we might be overrating the Buckeyes based on 5 straight games against tomato cans, they're easily playing three touchdowns better than Penn State. They won't be as easy to score on as the others, but right now I don't see how PSU will put any points on the board. 34-10 OSU.
Probably going to take a break from bets this weekend to avoid giving back some winnings, but I like OSU here with the under 59 or 60. MSU moneyline is the value on that game as I think the game is a real tossup and so getting +160 is really nice. Not really sure why there's money on Rutgers with them playing really poorly lately compared to Illinois establishing an identity with the run, so Illinois getting points at home is nice. And I like the Chiefs to work out some frustration and hang a ton on the Giants at home Monday Night. Gophers and Jags just there to fill out the 6, I like ol PJ's squad but they're just way too inconsistent to be laying more than TD. Betting against Geno Smith is probably a good idea, but, it's still the Jags.
Dismal week 7 but the club is moving on.
ReplyDeleteLet's start out with the Pack +6.5 over Arizona for one.
Michigan -4.5 over MSU
DeletePack over Cards (W)
DeleteMichigan (L, but happy)
Saints 5 over TB
Jets 11 over Bengals
Rams -14 over Texans
Essay: Vikes 2.5 over Cowboys
Largely a play on the stale line, which is because of Dak’s health concerns.
The Vikings are the best mediocre team in the league. They’ve lost to the Browns, Bengals, and Cards by 11 points combined. I still like the play even if Dak plays, because Cousins shines against man coverage, which the Cowboys play at a high rate. If Dak sits, this is a smash play. Either way, go Vikes
Should have Season-bet the Bengals. They are not ready for prime time. Gave the Browns a lifeline for this season after the worst loss of the year.
DeleteMSU +4.5 over Michigan
ReplyDeleteOhio State -18.5 over Penn St
Georgia -14 over Florida
Cincinnati -25 over Tulane
Essay Green Bay +6.5 vs Cardinals
This quarterback will show his organization the grave mistake they made in pissing him of.
Who is A-a-ron Rodgers?
Look all the factors at this point favor Arizona. They are rolling. Its a short week. Green Bay is missing Lazard and Adams. All true, but this week Murray is going to finally run out of magic. This is the type of week that Rodgers should thrive if he wants to prove his point to the Packers and the league. There should be tons of runs with Jones and Dillon which will key in the passing game for Cobb, Tonyan and Valdes-Scantling. Also now that JJ Watt has played his current quota of half a season I think the Arizona defense takes a step back. Could this be an Arizona blowout? Absolutely, but at some point every team is going to lay an egg and for the Cardinals, that egg is tonight.
Cardinals -6.5
ReplyDeleteMore to follow...SKOL!
Dang, no biscuit for me with that Cardinals pick. For Saturday, let's try
DeleteCincinnati -25
AP: MSU +4.5 (booger eater lol)
Essay and the rest to come...SKOL
Bills -13.5
DeleteRams -14
Essay: Vikings +2.5
I always find playing the "What If" game to be a giant waste of time when it comes to sports especially when referencing the past, but that's also what makes it the perfect game to play for Cheddar. So let's jump right in...
What if the Davlin Cook didn't fumble the ball on the Cincinnati 20 yard line in overtime in Week 1? Vikes probably go on to kick a short FG or punch it in for a TD to win the game (they had already stopped Cincy's OT drive). Then, what if K Greg Joseph didn't miss the game winning FG as time expired in Arizona the next week? I'll tell you what...the Vikes would have started 2-0 vs. two pretty damn good teams on the road on their way to a 5-1 record. (Now, since I'm driving the What If bus, we will completely disregard the what if scenarios of the Vikings not sneaking by the Lions and Panthers with walk-off wins, which could have put them at 1-5, so maybe the 3-3 record is on point afterall. Enough of this nonsense though and back on "the Vikes are good" train!)
So, what if the Vikings were 5-1 coming into this game at home on Sunday night vs. the Cowboys? They wouldn't be 2.5 point dogs that's for sure, they'd probably be favored by at least a FG. So, I'm looking at this as a value play. That said, this pick really comes down to one person (no, not Sunshine or my boy Curt Cuzzy)...Dak Prescott. Even with a bye last week, Dak is banged up. Sounds like he's a gametime decision at best. Even if he starts the game, he won't finish it and you know what that means. The fear-inducing back-up Cooper Rush (who took all the practice reps this week) will be thrust into US Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football and expected to deliver...news flash: it won't go well for him. Vikings win by a tuddy to go to 4-1 in their last 5 games and everyone begins to take notice. SKOL!
Cards ‐6.5 over GB for me too ✋
ReplyDeleteI'll take Michigan for the all play. Back with more later.
DeleteWill also take State Penn +18.5 over tOSU, and UNC +3.5 over ND.
DeleteTwo NFL votes tomorrow, including essay.
Will take the Saints +5 for my vote of the week. Just feeling they keep it close today if not win outright after escaping Seattle last week with a huge win that I think is probably coming off as underrated. The Seahawks defense was playing lights out last week and the Saints really had no business winning that game. Though the Saints defense of course is at least as good, with Demario Davis playing out of his mind. How did the Browns let that guy slip through their fingers? Anyway there's also of course the Jameis revenge factor.
DeleteWill take Vikes +2.5 for my last vote, and finally just want to pour one out for all my fellow voters who went down with the Wolverines yesterday. Woof. Happy Sunday all.
Detroit +3.5
ReplyDeleteIndy +0.5
Rams -14
Dallas -2.5
AP - Mich State +4.5
Essay - Louisiana -21 over Texas State
(Channeling my inner Terry Pluto voice)....
What do I know about the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns?
Absolutely nothing.
So why am I taking them as my essay pick?
Pure cosmic coincidence.
Wait - what??
Dane Brugler's weekly Athletic scouting series mentions a Louisiana OL prospect.
So that's it? An O-Line prospect??
And this game was the first one my eyes scrolled to when I opened this week's lines.
Doesn't that seem a bit unscientific?
Definitely.....and I'm also taking Goff and Wentz as underdogs this week.
But what about this week's NFL mismatches?
I feel that after two months, I truly don't understand any NFL teams.
Did you know the Bengals and Raiders are the AFC's current top playoff seeds?
Exactly.
Louisiana, huh? Nice pick.
Thanks.
Wow, you nailed this and your analysis on the head. That OL prospect must have pushed their way to 45 points while playing the other side of the ball and holding Texas State to 0 points. What a pick.
DeleteIt’s just that easy sometimes. Next week, I’ll change strategies and completely overthink my essay.
Deletefantastic essay this week, DK. got a good chuckle. i now expect this from you weekly
DeleteLol well played
Delete1: Lions +3.5 v. Eagles
ReplyDelete2: Ohio St. -18.5 v. Penn St.
3: Iowa +3.5 @ Wisconsin
4: Football Team +3 @ Denver
AP: Michigan St. +4.5 v. Michigan
Essay: Rutgers -2 @ Illinois
Bert's Illini had probably their biggest win in eons last week. They upset Penn St in the a trash game at home. Now those kids get to spend the week on campus where, if anyone cares, they get to hear about how great they are but get to do it without thier starting QB who broke his wrist late in the overtimes last week. Rutgers comes to town with Greg Schiano's signature thumping style. Much like Purdue celebrated their signature win over Iowa by getting boat-raced by a bad Wisconsin side, expect Illinois to follow-up in much the same way. Rutgers travel to Chambana and walks out with the W.
woof woof
ReplyDeleteiowa +3.5 at wisc
mich st + 4.5 ap
unc +3.5 at nd
hometeam
broncos -3
Deletechargers -6
titans - .5 essay
loss to arizona? ok, understand. The Jets? that's an anomaly. can't explain it. the spread is right. colts want this division game for first place. titans will run and run and run again. for the win.
give me the titans
Bills-13.5 vs dolphins*essay
ReplyDeleteJills are coming off a bye and Dolphins at 1-6 reeling with no answer at quarterback. This feels like the type of game bills put up 40 burger and it gets out of hand. There is a video of Josh Allen casually throwing like a 72 yard pass during warm ups with a flick of the wrist. Pretty good. I bet it’s nice to root for a team with a quarterback who can see over the offensive lineman.
Falcons -3 vs panthers
Browns -3.5 vs steelers
Bengals-10.5 vs jets
Saints +5 vs bucs
Michigan -4.5 vs Michigan st ap
Michigan St. +4.5
ReplyDeleteBaylor -3.5
Florida +14
BYU -2.5
Cowboys -2.5
Pats +6 (Essay)
Time to start hitting some essays. The Pats aren’t losing by much when they lose, while the Chargers are coming off a drubbing last week. They’ve been putting up points in some games like a college team, and in a high scoring game a 6 point spot will come in handy. Mac Jones looks like an excellent draft choice. He’s on a team which isn’t expecting him to win games all by himself, taking the pressure off the rookie. The game should be a good one to watch - since the burden of expectation is on the Chargers, the Pats can relax and keep it close if not win outright.
Let me start by saying, I really don't like how blogger doesn't let us "like" people's posts anymore. We have had some high quality content and humor here that may be going unrecognized. But keep it coming guys.
ReplyDeleteCollege Play/All-Play: Michigan -4.5
(going with head, not heart)
NFL PLAYS....
Delete- Lions +3.5 (vs Eagles)
- Bengals -11 (at Jets)
- Pats +6 (at Chargers)
- Bears +4 (49ers)
- Essay: Browns -3.5 (vs Steelers)
Following an old pattern, where I try my best with these NFL picks and avoid playing either side of the Browns. Then the wheels fall off my picks, as they have the past few weeks, and I just say "screw it, i am going all in Browns." With that in mind, I really do not accept the Steelers are good. Ben is legit bad. I don't accept the Bills win happened, they got a lucky ass punt block, and Ben was legit bad. There other wins were against the bad Broncos and horrible Seahawks, where once again Ben was legit bad.
For the Browns, who should have a solid home field advantage, it can also be said they don't have any good wins and one has to wonder how much different an injured Baker is than Big Ben. Well, I have an answer: injured Baker is still much better, because Ben fucking sucks. But more importantly, Browns seem to be getting their tackles back, Chubb back, and will have OBJ and Juice. Further, the Browns defense is #2 in the NFL in yards given up, while Steelers offense is 27th in yards from scrimmage. And the cherry on top is their running game is terrible, so while we can grind things out if Baker sucks, the Steelers have to win through the air. With the shitty corpse of Big Ben.
Browns 24, Steelers 10
Note: To the grader - two weeks ago I had Tennessee Titans but I think it was recorded and graded as Tennessee Volunteers. Should be +1 points.
ReplyDeleteThis week:
Essay: Iowa - Introducing the sharp trap/sharp square play. Unranked Wisconsin as a favorite against highly ranked Iowa appears to be a spot to sharp it up and take the favorite. This isn't 2003 though and all contrarian all the time has less appeal, especially with bigger matchups. We've seen this over and over most recently with Iowa St and to a lesser extent UCLA last week. Everyone trying to outthink this one. To put it bluntly, Wisconsin is terrible. Not sure they should be favored over anyone. Mertz is also a clown show and should have issues with this D. Laying points with him here only for the sharpest of players but I guess I'm not that sharp anymore.
Colts
Miss St
North Carolina
Cal
All play: Michigan
all play Michigan -4.5
DeleteIowa +3.5 at Wisco
Cincy -25 at Tulane With Cincy looking at a CFB playoff, Coach Fickell understands first-hand that contending teams need not only to win but to cover. Style Points. Especially as a non Power 5 representative, he needs to leave no questions for the committee. He has to win by 30 today and cannot take the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. As for the Navy scare last week, Navy can do that to good teams. As for Tulane, they scared the hell out of Oklahoma in their opener but now they're down to third string QB and are allowing over 40 points a game to teams that are not ranked #2. Hard to see Cincy not hanging 50 here.
Bills -13.5 vs Dolphins
Rams -14 at Texans
Steelers +3.5 at Browns
Yes I just replied to Squeaky.
DeleteWhen I said I was going to be wrong on Tennessee all year, that was not what I meant.
Delete1. AP: Michigan -4.5 @ MSU
ReplyDelete2. Bengals -11 @ Jets
Delete3. Seahawks -3.5 vs. Jags
4. 49ers -4 @ Bears
5. Panthers +3 @ Falcons
6. Essay: Browns -3.5 vs. Steelers
All in on the Browns today because if the result of a football game is going to upset me, let's double the pain with losing a cheddar essay.
This could be Ben's last game in Cleveland. A stadium he had the most wins in of any QB (Browns QBs included) until last year I believe. I feel an appropriate send off should be in store today. Baker's trying to gut through any number of injuries, so do Landry and OBJ. I'd like to think this creates additional motivation on the defense to come out and dominate the game.
It won't be repeat of the playoff game between the two, but with Chubb back the Browns should be able to take pressure off Baker with the run and short passing game. The defense won't let it get to a point where Baker needs to sling it all day and I think they even make a few big plays cashing in on the Steelers desire to return the favor of a blowout.
Texas +3.5 They gotta cover eventually, right?
ReplyDeletePitt -9 Been one of the hottest teams in college football and Pickett has been money
Missouri -16 Vanderbilt is absolute trash. The worst
Bengals -11 Their Defense has been surprisingly good. And the jets are atrocious
AP: Michigan State +4.5 For no other reason than this game always tends to be clos
Essay: Georgia -14
14 points seems like it would be a lot in this game in the past. However florida is miserable on Defense and Georgia is suffocating, not allowing very many points whatsoever. Florida struggles to throw the ball and when a team becomes one dimensional against a Bama or Georgia, the game usually turns into a beat down. This is a game that is trending towards and absolute blowout. Florida is on the verge of losing 3 of its last 4 with a loss to Georgia at home today. Considering the bulldogs are averaging 44 points a game and they haven’t allowed 2 touchdowns in a single game this season, this game seems like a no brainer to me. But I’ve clearly been wrong all year so it’ll probably be closer than I am assuming. Bulldogs -14 for the biscuits
1. Texas Tech +20
ReplyDelete2. Iowa +3.5
3. Washington State +14.5
4. Detroit Lions +3.5
All Play – MSU +4.5
Essay – Tennessee Titans -.5 (Essay Coming)
Michigan -4.5 vs Michigan st. I never essay the all play but this week has some interesting findings for football voters who watch Vegas line movements. I learned that you can actually pay companies to send you alerts when reverse line movement is occurring which allows true degenerates to free up time for whatever degenerates do in their free time (probably more gambling-in my case it would be more trail running-October is the best month!). Bleacher report gives a nice tutorial on reverse line movements and gives some descriptive statistics on 2007-08 reverse line movements of at least 1 in games with 60% of the bets on a side and the outcome favors the sharps 56.4-59.3% of the time. Technically I would have to bet like that all of the time to really come out ahead in the long run since it is only a little better than a coin flip. Although I rarely like voting for a favored team, other fun stuff I like to look also points to Michigan: Spartans listed as “hot” in Don Best trends, Michigan’s kicker is 18th in field goal percentage and Spartan’s is 87th. I also like it when the spread is less than the summation of the difference in the average points per game and points allowed. What we have here is 3.3 difference in average points per game and 4.4 difference in points allowed, so if both teams have an average day, one might expect Michigan to beat Michigan St by 7.7 points. If all I need is average in day where Michigan wants to be extraordinary, I might as well make it my play of the year.
ReplyDeleteOther votes
Bowling green + 13.5 vs. Suny Buffalo
UL Monroe +28 vs App st
Ugh. I hate Michigan. Literally the whole state. Any way. Maybe I can still get 4 points this week.
DeleteSaints + 5
Cowboys -2.5
Patriots +6
Michigan -4.5 over MSU
ReplyDeleteIowa +3.5 over Wisconsin
Ole Miss +2.5 over Auburn
Panthers +3 over Falcons
DeleteLions +3.5 over Eagles
Vikings +2.5 over Cowboys
DeleteFirst of all, Dak might not even play. And even if he does, his mobility will be limited. The Vikings could easily be 5-1, and while I know you could say something like that about most NFL teams, the Vikes really do have a special group of offensive weapons. With Diggs on Jefferson tonight I imagine Thielen will have a big night, and Dalvin Cook should feast on a defense that just made Damien Harris look like Jim Brown. Cowboys are due for a loss and have already locked up their division. This game means a lot more to Minny and I think they'll take the W.
AP: Michigan -4.5 @ MSU
ReplyDeleteCincinnati -25.5 @ Tulane
Bucs -5 @ Saints
DeleteBroncos -3 vs WTF
Lions +3.5 vs Eagles
***Browns -3.5 vs Steelers
The Browns are down but not out. Two really good defensive units here, Steelers with a slight edge in overall defensive numbers, but Myles Garrett exists. Just mentally, that’s a liability in Rothlisberger’s head and a huge asset for the Browns. The Steelers are near the bottom in total offense, passing offense, and running offense. OTOH, Chubb is back. Landry is back. Stefanski ought to hand out some delicious Halloween treats to the home crowd, like, oh I don’t know, the #2 QB (Landry) could pop off with a bomb to Beckham again for a little October surprise. I think mentally the Browns have a huge edge here, after pulling out the win last week, and with the great leadership of players like Landry and Mayfield who are not at 100% but always give 100% on the field.
All Play: Michigan -4.5
ReplyDeleteEssay: Iowa +3.5 @ Wisconsin
Sure, the loss against Purdue was a big let down and the Hawkeyes looked gassed. Give arguably the best D Coordinator in College Football in Phil Parker an extra week to prepare for a one dimensional non-dynamic "offense" and I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back in a big way an cement themselves as a top 10 team in the nation. This game is going to be low scoring and I don't expect Wisconsin to put up more than 10 points today. Tyler Goodson has his legs fresh and Petras focuses on not turning the ball over. Hawkeyes get the outright win in Camp Randall 14-7.
More picks to come.
Lions +3.5 vs Eagles
DeleteSteelers +3.5 @ Browns
Chargers -6 vs Pats
Vikings +2.5 vs Cowboys
Michigan -4.5
ReplyDeleteU Houston - 1 / SMU
DeleteEssay
Feels like the right spot to go against The undefeated ponies, on the road. Houston has won six in a row since a season-opening loss to Texas tech. They're getting it done with defense. Very similar when profile compared with SMU. Nothing amazing, just a lot of really solid physically dominating performances. So I'll take them at home today to end another unbeaten season today.
Oregon State -1.5 / Cal
DeleteBYU -2.5 / Virginia
Colts -0.5
DeletePats +6
Whoops, better pick the all play. Michigan -4.5 (this is oxr)
ReplyDeletePanthers +3 over Falcons
DeleteBills -13.5 over Dolphins
Lions +3.5 over Eagles
Cowboys -2.5 over Vikings
Essay Bengals -11 over Jets — When in doubt, which I am, continue to pick against the Jets. Might be returning to the well one time too many here, but I really think this could’ve easily been one of the two-TD lines.The Bengals are top 5 in defensive DVOA (OK they’re #5, but it still counts) and now they’re not even getting Zach Wilson, much less Emergency Joe Flacco. Burrow/Chase can apparently put up points from anywhere and I don’t know that Mike White is going to be an adequate answer.
Update at 1:25 PM: Mike White is 11/11 for 93 yards.
DeleteHowever, I may have jinxed him.
DeleteGetting in on some pre-emptive MACtion with Kent St -3 over NIU, CMU +9 over WMU.
ReplyDelete