Cheddar Bay Week 7: Bengals +6.5 at Ravens
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
Re-posting Coastal Carolina -5 over App State and SMU -14 over Tulane
ReplyDeleteBengals +6.5 over Ravens
DeleteOklahoma St +7 over Iowa St
Ohio St -21 over Indiana
Purdue +3 over Wisconsin - essay
This is a really tough week and I'm glad I got my POTY out of the way last week because the lines are getting goofy. The NFL in particular is really crazy with all the 2 TD+ action.
When in doubt, play some weekday games and then retreat to the soft, comforting glow of Big Ten football. Like the Boilermakers here to build on some momentum and really make a case for the division. It's all right in front of them and they absolutely dominated Iowa on the road. I think they can do the same to Wisconsin who is just as one dimensional on offense, worse on defense, playing on the road, and just hasn't shown the fortitude to really control a game. I love what Purdue did to get the ball in the hands of David Bell over and over, exploiting weaknesses, not letting down. Wisconsin also has to adjust after playing the army triple option last week, whereas Purdue is going to face a lot of the same going from Iowa to Wisconsin. Give me Purdue to win but I'll happily take 3 points with it.
Honestly, I might like the OSU/Indiana pick more but there's always too much randomness with big lines and who knows if OSU decides to take a few naps. I know Wisconsin and Purdue are going to be playing hard.
I guess the Cowboys are on a bye so I'm going to go ahead and essay our Browns. Reasons:
ReplyDeleteStefanski will game plan with great confidence that his QB will execute it.
I've loved Keenum since that Vikings year and I loved him because he was an absolute savant in converting third downs.
I really like DErnest Johnson and dont think the drop off in RB will be severe.
Browns defense is talented and pissed. They will bully tonight.
OBJ will probably breakout tonight because the law of sportstalk radio requires it.
Essay Browns -1.5 at Broncos
All play Ravens -6.5 vs Bengals
Charlotte +7 vs FAU
NC State -3 at Miami
Panthers -3 at Giants
Seahawks +5 vs Saints
Pretty much nailed everything except the OBJ prediction. Sheesh, you're on fire Kanick!
DeleteMaryland +5.5
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -7
Titans +5.5
Cardinals -17.5
AP: Ravens -6.5
Essay: Packers -8.5
It's pretty apparent that Rodgers has this team rolling right now. Even I apprcaited the discount double check on the Bears last week. This year is shaping up perfectly for Rodgers to say eff you to the media and the entire league for underestimating him before the season started or calling him a drama queen. If you want to call him a drama queen, that's fine, but it would have to only be because of his stellar acting skills in those State Farm commercials. Can't get enough of them. As of today, the Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl. WFT defense hasn't lived up to any of the hype this year and their QB play has been lacking. I know this because I don't even know who their QB is. Green Bay by a couple tuddies. SKOL!
Give me 1 on San Jose St. -5 @ UNLV tonight.
ReplyDeleteGo Browns! More tomorrow.
Ran out of time yesterday because I was a little hungover from tailgating and missed out on that juicy Arizona +17. We move forward anyway
Delete1: San Jose St -5 @ UNLV (WIN)
2: Wisconsin -3 @ Purdue
More coming soon...
The rest of week 7
Delete3: Notre Dame -7 v. USC
4: Boston College +6.5 @ Louisville
AP: Ravens -6.5 v. Bengals: Once again, zero insight into this game. Should be a no play. Feels like the Bengals could be competitive, but so I'm fading myself on the theory the Ravens always thump Cincy.
Essay: Ohio St. -21 @ Indiana
I think this is a really bad spot for the Hoosiers. Ohio St. has their offense rolling. Their D has improved both schematically and in player rotation. And they are coming off an idle week so they'll be healthy and fresh. Indiana played a physical game last week in coming oh so close to upsetting Sparty. But it also showed the limitations of Indiana. Michael Penix is not the Michael Penix of previous season vintage, he's beat up and can't move like he used to. This limits what Indiana can score. The defense in Bloomington doesn't have the talent of recent seasons as well. In the end, the Buckeyes as always play a virtual home game in southern Indiana, throw 50+ on the scoreboard and pretty convincingly cover this number. After this week, Vegas adjusts the number for the improved Ohio St, so grab this value now.
I'm now 1-5 ATS voting on Browns games this season, only having hit on Texans +13.5. Am now yet again snakebitten after losing with them the last two weeks so here I go again on Broncos +1.5, surely another loser. Just one point!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM2K7sV-K74
DeleteUNLV for 1
ReplyDeleteThats UNLV + 5 Vs SJSU
DeleteNew Mexico +19.5 vs Wyoming essay
DeleteNew Mexico Lobos are 0-7 against the spread, plus a 16-game road losing streak-the longest in the nation, plus a 5 game losing streak, just like when they played Wyoming last year.. Cold Cold Cold on Donbest. <50% best on Vegas insider.-all good stuff for an essay vote. The New Mexico athletic website golobos.com has a football player with a tiny wolf figurine on his shoulder. I don’t think I have ever seen a football mascot presented as a 2 in high figurine-and it doesn’t even match their Lobos logo, their mascot Lobo Louis, or the any statue of Lobo on campus. In the 1980s the Lobo fans developed a popular chant “Everyone’s a Lobo, woof, woof, woof!” (which makes no sense when in interscholastic competition) and is accompanied by a hand gesture emulating a wolf. I had a hard time picturing a wolf hand gesture, but YouTube was able to help me out. It is kind of a shadow puppet thing. That and the figurine make them seem pretty tough. The school twice tried to have real wolves be their mascot but twice the wolves bit people-one was a player who rolled out of bounds-so maybe just having the players do nipping motions with their hands is safer.
Other votes
SDS + 3.5 vs Air force
Utah St +3.5 vs Colorado St
NIU +5.5 vs CMU
Bengels
ReplyDeleteKC -5.5
Miami Dolphins +2.5
Raiders -3
Ole Miss -9
AP - Baltimore -6.5
Essay TB -12.5 over Chicago
Feels like I'm flailing with my picks - particularly in the AFC, where top contenders LA and Buffalo were taken down last week. Our Browns are barely surviving and Sunday will reveal a lot about the Bengals. I can't ever fully trust the Raiders or the Titans - and naturally the Chiefs are quietly sneaking back into the mix. I hate to admit it, but the Ravens are the only sure thing in the conference at the moment. In seeking some kind of consistency, I'll go outside the conference with Brady and the Bucs coming off a mini-bye against the team that throttled them last year. Despite their struggles, Bowles vs. Nagy (still the worst HC in the league) seems like a huge mismatch.
Louisiana Tech for a point +7 over UTSA
ReplyDeleteLA Tech (huge L)
DeleteBengals 6.5 over Ravens
KC -5.5 over Ten
Bears 12.5 over TB
Falcons -2.5 over Miami
Essay: Carolina -3 over Giants
I do not love these picks this week, at all. But this strikes me as a bounce back week for the Panthers. Giants are just decimated by injuries and their OL stinks. Plus, Carolina has a massive coaching advantage.
NC State -3 @ Miami
ReplyDeleteCincinnati -27.5 @ Navy
Temple +2 @ S. Florida
DeletePackers -8.5 vs WFT
Titans +5.5 vs Chiefs
AP and essay ***Bengals +6.5 @ Ravens
An outright win by Cincy would be sweet for so many reasons, but I’ll gladly take a cover here. I realize the Ravens have been full steam ahead for the past five weeks. The Bengals have wins but over mediocre teams. However, they do have a couple of things going for them here. I like Joe Burrow with the high completion percentage against the 26th place passing D of Baltimore. I like that kid Chase who likes to catch long TD passes that Burrow likes to throw. I like that Joe Burrow in blitz situations is tied for fewest turnover worthy plays with a passer rating of 136. I also like that the Bengals will be at full strength while the Ravens are down a couple of keys players on offense. If the 5th place Bengals D can force Lamar to turn the ball over or just contain him, they can keep this one close. Would love to see Baltimore knocked down to 5-2. I like to think that watching the Browns on Thursday night inspired the Bengals to do great things.
Bengals +6.5
ReplyDeleteLions +15
Louisville -6.5
UTSA -7
TCU -4.5 (essay)
NC State -3
Back to the Cheddar grind. Here’s hoping this year’s squad can stay relevant in the standings for a few more weeks. I like the TCU points production matched against a WVU team that’s having trouble keeping up with opponents. I bet the Mountaineers sure miss Geno Smith. I can’t believe Geno Smith still has a job in the NFL - he’s barely played the last 5 years, yet here we are.
army +3 (at home v wf)
ReplyDeleteiowa st -7 (at home v ok st)
indiana + 21 (at home v ohio st)
ravens -6.5
Deletepack -8.5
lions + 15
Purdue +3 vs Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteIllinois +23 vs Penn St
Bengals +6.5 vs Ravens
eagles +3 vs raiders
DeleteBucs -12.5 vs Bears *essay no essay
colts +4 vs 49ers
Cincy -27.5 @ Navy
ReplyDeleteTTU -1 vs KSU
Essay and more to come
Essay: Yeah, I'm going to fade the Badgers again. Purdue +3 vs Wisconsin. This is less about how great Purdue looked last week at Iowa (David Bell is a legit WR that gets amazing separation on go routes) and more about the fact that the Badgers' "offense" sucks. Just how are they going to score points? Inconsistent untrustworthy QB play with a conservative offensive game plan tells me they score 14 points or less. Jeff Brohm and the Purdue offense proved last week they can match up against top tier defenses. I don't see Wisconsin leaving Lafayette with a W here. Purdue 24 - Wisconsin 10
DeleteAll Play: Ravens -6.5 vs Bengals
DeleteNYJ +7 @ NE
Lions +15 @ LAR
Bengals +6.5 over Ravens
ReplyDeletePanthers -3 over Giants
Patriots -7 over Jets
Texans +17.5
Essay
Notre Dame -7 over USC
Once again this year we have arrived at one of the most storied rivalries in the history of college football. You have to hand it to the Golden Dome though, they managed to pimp themselves to a point where they have some sort of legacy game every other week just by being bland and repetitive. THis game will not be close though. USC is a mess and this time its not Olivia Jade or Lori Loughlin's fault. I mean who thought Steve Sarkisian would be doing dry football season and having Texas better off than the Trojans.THe fact that this game is in South Bend will give Notre Dame that little extra will to twist the knife in the trojans as they recall their recent spankings at the hands of USC when the ranked team was on the other side. THe helmets will be extra shiny for this game and they might even break out a green jersey, but it is certain they will break USCs sense of righteous entitlement and put them under .500 and in the drivers seat for the Preparation H bowl sometime in early December.
Penn State -23
ReplyDeleteNFL to follow
AP: Bengals +6.5
DeletePanthers -3
Jets +7
Seahawks +5
Essay: Chiefs -5.5
Titans D stinks. Meanwhile, have they faced the 2nd hardest schedule in the league, they've done so while missing numerous defensive starters as well. Their four highest rated players on defense are: Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Tyrann Mathhiew, and Charv Ward. So far this season, Tyrann Matthiew has missed one game, Frank Clark has missed three games, Charv Ward has missed the last four games, and Chris Jones has missed the last two games. An already below average defense, has been very depleted while facing good teams. however they just faced the toughest part of their schedule, while they now will have a fully healthy defense for the first time all season.
Cincinnati -27.5 over Navy
ReplyDeletePurdue +3 over Wisconsin
Oklahoma State +7 over Iowa State
Ravens -6.5 over Bengals
DeleteRaiders -3 over Eagles
DeleteEssay: Saints -5 over Seahawks
DeleteI'm not sure the Seahawks were on track to have a particularly strong season even when Russell Wilson was healthy, and now that Geno Smith is starting for at least a few more games, their playoff hopes are already all but gone in a division with the Cards and Rams. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a bye and have won by at least two scores in all three of their wins. Sean Payton's Jameis Winston Reclamation Project has gone about as well as anyone could have predicted, with Jameis boasting a 12:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and New Orleans has the best run defense in the NFL, which means Geno will need to beat them through the air. He won't, and the Saints will win this one comfortably.
1. Oregon +2.5
ReplyDelete2. Oklahoma State +7
3. Texas Tech -1
4. KC Chiefs -5.5
All Play Ravens -6.5
Essay and Pick of the Year – Utah -3
As I am moving back to Zion this weekend (Utah) it only feels appropriate to essay and pick of the year Utah -3 over the Oregon state beavers. After Charlie Brewer gave away the game to BYU and then San Diego State he chose to salvage his year and bail to the transfer portal. Admittedly I was prepared to call it a year. BOOM! Cam Rising, projected starter last year after transferring from Texas. Kid slings it and runs for 15 when it’s open. The offense has come alive putting up 42 against, an albeit shitty, SC team then following it up with 28 unanswered points in the second half to beat a well coached and motivated Arizona state team. Utah has everything ahead of them in the Pac12 south with the offense humming and the defense rallied around mid-season all American stud Devin Lloyd. Scalley has the defense playing traditional Utah, bend don’t break, force turnover defense. The beavers are sitting at a surprising 4-2, until you see who they’ve played – Loss to purdue, Hawaii, Idaho, SC, Washington, Loss to Wazzou. Haven’t seen or heard a lick of coverage but I’m banking on them being the beavs they always are. Riesing stadium is tough and Utah has to play well on the road but I think they’re a touchdown favorite to win.
Ok state +7
ReplyDeleteUtah -3
Nc state -3
Ohio +6
ReplyDeleteOregon State +3
DeleteAlways hesitant to go against somebody's pick of the year, but the weather here has been garbage all weekend and I like the local team's ability to run the ball.
Air Force -3.5
I'm usually a fan of an unranked home team laying points to a ranked team.
DeleteRavens -6.5
Titans +5.5 essay skip
Colts +4
DeleteI don't know which game didn't get scored but I should have five points for this week instead of four - Titans essay, Colts, Oregon State.
DeleteSorry, missed the Colts pick. It's there now.
DeleteRegulars:
ReplyDeleteMaryland
UCLA
Iowa St
Wisconsin
NFL and essay to follow
1. ND -7 vs. USC
ReplyDelete2. Panthers -3 @ Giants
Delete3. Jets +7 @ Pats
4. Eagles +3 @ Raiders
5. AP: Bengals +6.5 @ Ravens
6. Essay: Chiefs -5.5 @ Titans
I'm all in on road teams today and for my pick of the week I'll take the third place* team in the AFC West to cover on the road against the Titans (* they were last place until the Browns beat the Broncos). Talk about a perfect let down spot... We have the Titans fresh off a big Monday night win over the Bills, the same Bills team that embarrassed the Chiefs in prime time weeks back. Mahomes has looked, dare I say, human - although I appreciate the effort of his mom to get the interception off the hands of Hill to not be applied to his stats (on the flip side his brother is an awful person and it's a shame the Chiefs actually won that game vs. the Football team). Whereas, for the Titans, Derek Henry has looked anything but human. Imagine taking Aaron Jones over him at the fifth slot in a PPR fantasy draft prior to the season (cause that's the regret I live with every week so far).
This isn't about fantasy football though, it's about the Chiefs winning by more than 5 points, which I fully expect them to do no matter who is out there catching the ball from Mahomes. Today is the day Mahomes will remind the league just how great he is and the Chiefs defense will make just enough stops to make me a winner with this pick.
College pick Ohio State -a bunch over Indiana and I'll get everything in the spreadsheet later tonight or tomorrow morning.
ReplyDelete
DeleteAll-Play Bengals +6.5 over Ravens (triumph of hope over experience)
Panthers -3 over Giants
Packers -8.5 over WFT
Chiefs -5.5 over Titans — I am going to be wrong on the Titans all year, might as well lean into it
Essay Patriots -7 over Jets — Not exactly feeling great about laying all these points, but this week’s theme is not so much Good Team vs Bad Team as it is Intermittently Competent vs Call The National Guard. The week 2 NE/NYJ matchup in New York was one of the least competitive games of the year and Zach Wilson has not shown many signs of improvement since that 4-interception afternoon. The Patriots are coming off a bad beat against a contender, playing at home, and hopefully ready to confound Wilson with shiny objects, secure some short fields and put together several gimmicky-ass Patriots-style scoring drives.
USC +7ish over ND for one point
ReplyDeleteIndiana +21 over OSU
DeleteVote of the week will be the great white hope Joey B. to keep it within a touchdown v. the Ravens. Have been going back and forth on this one but am landing here mostly thinking that with this being the only decent game on the slate this week, and with league really selling the "are the Bengals really back" narrative, that the stripes will be wanting to keep this one close, especially given Joey B.'s overall marketability along all the lines this league loves to market along. I look forward to the day, in about 15 years, when nobody will be allowed to go outside because Covid-Zeta-911X has a 0.00001% infection mortality rate and might "kill" people who are already on the brink of death, and we'll get to see Joey B. on the MNF broadcasts yukking it up from his living room in his khakis and cardigan sweater.
DeleteWill also go with the Eagles +3 over Raiders and Colts +4 over 9ers to round out my slate (Broncos on Thurs. were, as predicted!, a loser for me).
All play Bungles
ReplyDeleteEssay: Bucs (essay pass week)