Cheddar Bay Week 6: Cardinals +2.5 at Browns
Last week was pretty solid across the board: most notably, CLTIL and Art Briles Exonerator were on opposite sides of Bengals-Packers and the push yielded them both an Admiral’s Feast. This week’s All-Play marks the second meeting of the consecutive #1 Oklahoma QBs, leading the undefeated Cardinals and the less-defeated-than-usual Browns. One thing we can be reasonably sure of is that this time around Kenyan Drake will not average 6.2 yards per carry and score four TDs.
Personally I did not even realize that Appalachian State were playing Louisiana-Lafayette last night, but they were and Agnes was on top of it. For future reference, if there is Tuesday action and we don’t have a thread up you can always do what Agnes did in this case and post a pick in the previous week’s thread (Scores and Odds is where we’re getting lines so just use theirs).
There have been a couple of screw-ups in the picks spreadsheet so far and I cannot guarantee the absence of future screw-ups, so please continue to keep an eye on your score and make sure I'm not short-changing you.
Happy voting everyone! -- Olly.
Navy +10.5 vs Memphis
ReplyDeleteIt is fitting to vote on a service team that is playing while I am working at the VA with actual navy alums (navy as in they served, not in that they played football). Memphis hasn’t beaten a team by 10 points since their quarter back was injured after the first game and Navy hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points since their first 2 games. Navy has a tough schedule ahead with Cinci and ND on the horizon so this may be a day to shine. Memphis is not very good at stopping passing so maybe the Navy QB will actually complete a pass. Navy tweeted today #builtdifferent, which is the same # used by Rock Hill, SC Lady Bearcat HS basketball who seem to have a pretty good record. They all look like predator in their twitter profile because they have weird face masks, so they really do look like they are built different. Check it out.
I will also take South Alabama -3 vs Georgia Souther for 1 point
Tennessee +3 vs old miss
DeleteChargers +3 and Browns -2.5
DeleteEagles over Bucs for 6.5 please
ReplyDeletePurdue +11.5 over Iowa
DeleteEagles over Bucs (W)
DeletePurdue over Iowa (W)
Browns -2.5 over Cards
Chargers 3 over Ravens
Bills -5.5 over Tennessee
Essay: Pack -4.5 over Bears. This has been a burn me spot before, but this ladies and gents is Aaron Rodgers’ last dance in Green Bay, and probably thus his final thrashing in Chicago as a Packer. And thrash has he done the bears, compiling a career 21-5 record. Off a rather sorry loss in Cinci, ARod (woof that nickname) will move it with ease, and Justin Fields and co won’t be able to keep up
Aww beans I had Eagles for the W last night and I posted it but apparently the comment didn't actually get posted? Ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteLast week I achieved the elusive Admirals Feast by going 5-0-1 on picks, and I also felt very strong about MSU over Rutgers. Did I bet any of those on Fanduel? No I did not. There were actually multiple times where I had a bet on MSU or ASU loaded and ready to go, but decided the odds weren't good enough or whatever. What I did do instead is place a bet on Nebraska without realizing that i had gotten +3.5 on Cheddar but only +2.5 on Fanduel. Of course, the real mistake was trusting a Scott Frost team to do anything right.
Of course, I also did not put any money on the Eagles last night. The amount of money I am leaving on the table lately is staggering.
Here are the picks:
Mich St -4.5 over Indiana - Essay (Pick of the Year)
Wisconsin -14.5 over Army
Ole Miss -3 over Tennessee
Arizona St -1.5 over Utah
Browns -2.5 over Cardinals - All play
Broncos -4 over Raiders
I've been trying to be cautiously optimistic on the Spartans and not assume victories in conference games (hence my reluctance to commit to the road cover against Rutgers), but I'm all the way in on Tucker now. MSU is actually getting picks to be in the CFB playoff for the 2nd time. I don't see those heights, because MSU is still significantly limited in the trenches and their secondary really cannot handle guys with speed downfield. I've seen crazier things, but I don't see how that combination can handle OSU at all, and that assumes MSU is also playing clean enough to run the table on Michigan and Penn State. They're good, but this feels more like the Kirk Cousins era MSU than the Connor Cook era.
But Indiana? They stink. While MSU might not be equipped to push around a strong defense, they have proven very capable of handling business when favored. MSU's combination of Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor is lethal whenever Peyton Thorne has time to throw. Thorne is only a sophomore (and has 4 more years of eligibility after this year, if he wants them), and struggles when a defense like Nebraska makes him uncomfortable. Indiana will not make him uncomfortable, which will allow Thorne to bomb it downfield whenever he wants. And of course, Indiana has to contend with that while also trying to account for the best tailback in the college game, Kenneth Walker.
Past Indiana teams could really move the ball with a spread attack and keep pace despite inferior talent. But Indiana isn't scoring much on good teams, with 6 against Iowa and 0 against PSU. The 24 they scored on Cincinnati still came with 3 Mike Penix picks. Against the common opponent, WKU? Indiana won by 2, while MSU scored 42 first half points and won by 17.
Ok so with all that in mind, why is this line only -4.5? The public still thinks this is last year's Indiana team, and oddsmakers are trying to follow that. And sure, maybe Indiana's offensive capabilities are a little underrated because of a killer schedule. But Penix hasn't been healthy or effective all season. And even if Indiana can move the ball more than they have, I don't see what answer they would have to the things MSU can do really well.
Of course, there's no such thing as a sure thing, and let downs are always possible. But going into a bye with a ton of momentum, Mel Tucker is going to be on his guys to stay focused. There were key moments against Rutgers where, after MSU made a mistake, Tucker immediately called for a strike downfield. They're going to keep that energy going and lock up another double-digit win, and this is why MSU -4.5 is my lock of the year.
Wow GL
DeleteMassive respect for this ballsy play and full throated essay. Best of luck…
Delete0.5 win is still a win!
DeleteRaiders +4
ReplyDeleteGB -4.5
Baltimore -3
Oregon -13.5
AP - Browns -2.5
Essay - Bills -5.5 over Titans
I'm coming around to the idea that the Bills are the AFC's most complete team. KC and the Chargers have defensive issues and there's no way the Ravens can keep up their run. I would lump Cleveland, Cincy and Tennessee into the same group - talented teams that you can never fully trust. While I love the Titans in a spot over the Jaguars, I feel they can't keep up with the Bills. This is a huge physical mismatch and the kind of game that separates the conference's contenders.
BTW - Who gets the entry money this year? I need to pay up.
I'll take the orange team tonight, the home team, Syracuse +14 over Clemson for one point
ReplyDeleteWill try Kentucky +23 over Georgia for one point.
DeleteSellout crowd in Knoxville tonight for the first time since the fabled "life championship" run of 2017, which is really something given how much money this University pumps into football. Lane Kiffin's first game back in Tennessee since vacating the head coaching position there after one season to take the USC job 10 years ago so the checkerboard crowd will be extra fired up after a long day of tailgating. Seems it's been awhile since the Vols have played in a semi-meaningful game this "late" in the season and I suppose I just think the dogs are more than due a bone here.
DeleteWill take the three points and the Vols over Mississippi for my vote of the week.
Cripes Tennesee ...
DeleteJags +3.5 over Phins
Ravens -3 over Chargers & Browns for the all play
DeleteCincinnati -20.5
ReplyDeleteLions +3.5
WFT +7
Broncos -4
AP: Cardinals +2.5
Essay: Dolphins -3.5
I'm sticking with the same theme that has worked the last two weeks for me, so this essay will be pretty simple. Rookie QB. Six different rookie QBs have started a game this year going a combined 5-17 (.227 win %). Believe it or not, rookie QBs on the road fair slightly better at 3-8 (.273 win %). Mac Jones has two of those three road wins against NYJ and HOU, both of which also started a...you got it!...rookie QB. Justin Fields has the other road win which came last week vs. the Raiders who may or may not have been a little distracted by the Gruden bungle. I'm gonna go with they definitely were distracted - whether it was by the Gruden thing or Mark Davis's haircut is a coin flip. Anyway, where am I going with this? To the most glorious place in the NFL...SUNSHINE! Man, do I have a huge crush on that guy. Someone splash some water on me. As Thor-like as he is, Miami is desperate for a win if they want any chance at making the playoffs, and with Tua back under center they do just enough to pull off the victory in London and cover by 1/2 point. Sunshine's beauty gets the last laugh though and casts a spell over all of England more powerful than the one Harry Potter used to take down Voldemort. Expelliarmus! 27-23 Fins. SKOL!
cincinnati -20.5
ReplyDeletecolorado -6.5
sjsu +9
nfl to follow
nfl
Deletepanthers +1
ravens - 3 essay
browns - 2.5
the chargers defense was soundly tested last week in the score-a-thon game against the browns. the ravens passing game, not sharp in the first 2 games this season, has steadily improved. last week lamar jackson threw 4 touchdown passes.
Deletethe tell today will be how the chargers align their defense. four lineman and 7 backs won't stop jackson's ability to run and pass accurately.
give me baltimore -3 at home.
hometeam
Cincinnati -20.5 over UCF
ReplyDeleteMichigan St. -4.5 @ Indiana
AP: Browns -2.5 over Cards
DeleteJaguars +3.5 over Dolphins
Chargers +3 @Ravens
***Packers -4.5 @ Bears
It’s a numbers thing here again. The Bears are near the basement in offense except for their running game (9th in the run), but they are thin now due to injury, and the O line is banged up. They are dead last in passing offense. Fields got thrown into the deep end of the pool a little too soon. The Packers are 11th in run defense, thanks in part to the durable OLB Preston Smith. He has not missed a game in his NFL career. He also willingly took a pay cut and contract adjustment to help with cap space. The spirit of brotherhood is one the things I like most about this team. The Bears have a solid defense going for them in all phases (12th in passing and rushing), but I think the new GB O-line is starting to gel. Khalil Mack has a bad foot and may not even play, which would be a bonus. I see the line has gotten up to -6 on a few sites. GB has covered every game except week 1 when I essayed them, so I’ve gotten up the nerve to try again. I’m trying not to make the sentimental choices that always seem to bite me, but this one feels pretty good. Road game but same time zone, 3 hours away.
Sorry guys, Cardinals +2.5
ReplyDeleteMichigan State -4.5 (Essay)
UCLA +2.5
Boston College +2.5
UCF +20.5
Broncos -4
This has Vegas Knows Something That I Don’t written all over it. Yet here I am, going for three precious points despite having a bad feeling about this. Michigan State is in good form, undefeated with decent wins. Indiana is better than they usually are. Which is okay in absolute terms, and could probably beat about 60% of schools out there. However they’re not as good at football as you would expect from a largish midwestern university (Illinois comes to mind in this category too). In previous years a game like this would trend towards convincing to blowout, this year I’m hoping it’s comfortable to convincing.
regulars:
ReplyDeleteNE Patriots
Missouri Tigers
Indiana Hoosiers
Tennessee Titans
All Play: Browns
Essay: Washington Huskies
I was super high on UCLA coming into the year and they delivered when they needed to for me then I hit twice against them with Fresblo and ASU. So that of course makes them my favorite team. This is a super strange number. Washington has been a moderate level dumpster fire. They have a garbage offense. They lost on the road to the Beaver. UCLA has plateaued after the good start. My gut is UCLA will likely be unfocused the rest of the year and probably won't hit their previous highs. I'll take the pretty gross short home fav.
AP: Browns -2.5 v. Cardinals: What a wild week leading up to this game and there is still almost 2 days to go.
ReplyDelete1: Chargers +3 @ Ravens
2: Patriots +4 v. Cowboys
3: Lions +3.5 v. Bengals
4: Michigan St. -4.5 @ Indiana
Essay: Alabama -17 @ Mississippi St.
They say there are 2 certainties in life, death and taxes. Well, since 2013, there has been 1 more and that is Alabama football, though rarely losing a game, does not lose a second in a row. So it's pretty much assured that Mike Leach's Bulldogs aren't winning this game. But I'm laying my biscuits on Saban's boys stomping a mud hole through Starksville. The pirate's simple offensive scheme will be just what the doctor ordered for Bama's defense to look like the vintage Bama we're used to. Give those points, the Crimson Tide rolls here.
AP: Cards +2.5 vs Browns
ReplyDeleteTexans +9.5 vs Colts
Packers -4.5 vs Bears
Broncos -4 vs Raiders
Northwestern +2 vs Rutgers
Kent St. +7 vs Western Michigan* Essay
I'm in the middle of a nice little stay here in NE Ohio and wow has the weather been amazing. We had our 'sales meeting' in Stow, and enjoyed a wonderful night out at Thorncreek winery Thursday night. And now having moved my accommodations to Firestone CC for the weekend, there is another group of guys here that are all Kent St alums, they seemed fine, and so Kent St is my essay pick of the week. My general theory of things is if the weather has been really nice, then the team will have enjoyed many days of positivity and good practice, and go out and play well and Kent State should have enjoyed a week of mid 70s in October, they should be fired up and ready to play well.
oregon -13.5 vs cal
ReplyDeleteuk +23 at uga
cowboys -4 at pats
bengals -3.5 at lions
seahawks +4.5 at steelers
cardinals +2.5 at browns
back to essay the cowboys again later.
soooooo... i picked that oregon game saturday but they played it friday!
Deletethat being the case, I'll take the bills as my sixth pick.
oops forgot to essay the cowboys. can this be my no essay week? i kneel prostrate before the executive committee.
DeleteTCU +13.5 @ OU
ReplyDeleteKSU +7 vs Iowa State
Packers -4.5 @ Bears. Rodgers shows Fields what a franchise QB looks like. No Khalil Mack, Packers blowout the Bears in Chicago.
NYG +10.5 vs LAR
All Play: Cardinals +2.5
Essay: Army +14 @ Wisconsin
Will this game even have 14 points? Both of these teams rely on rush offense and controlling the line of scrimmage. Basically, it's going to be a boring game. Wisconsin hasn't lived up to the lofty expectations again this year. Trouble at QB will have them leaning heavy on the run offense and slow this game down. Camp Randall certainly has a role here but I think Army comes into this with more to play for. This game should be close (and boring). Wisconsin 18 - Army 14.
Georgia -23 over Kentucky
ReplyDeleteAlabama -17 over Mississippi state
Browns -2.5 over Cardinals
Ravens -3
Essay Ravens -3 vs Chargers
Both these teams are coming off ridiculous games last week. I mean the Chargers (plus the refs) had a huge statement win over another afc contender, if this keeps up they might actually get a fan base in LA (I mean if the Clippers can get fans, anything is possible here). Then you had Lamar playing real life Madden versus the colts. At this point the Ravens have been in this situation before and the Chargers have not. That is why I think between the trip back East, too many pregame crab cakes and about 4 big games in a row, the Chargers lay an egg (even with the extra day of rest) and Lamar makes Bosa look foolish on at least a couple plays.
College pick…
ReplyDeleteStanford -1.5 (at wazzu)
NFL PICKS...
DeleteColts -9.5 (vs Texans)
Lions +3.5 (vs Bengals)
Raiders +4 (at Broncos)
AP: Browns -3 (vs Cards)
Essay: Patriots +4 (vs Cowboys)
The Patriots are a 4-1 team masked as a bad 2-3 team. They completely outplayed the Dolphins in week 1 but lost due to one player fumbling at the end of the game. And although you could say either team could have won in the Bucs/Pats game, they played well enough to win that game as well. This past week, everyone saw New England struggle vs a Texans team that has looked awful; however it's important to note Mac Jones was playing without 4 starting offensive lineman. Their offense was destined to struggle in that game which led to a lot of quick drives and punts. In the end though, they still escaped with the victory. I see New England as a capable 4-1 team that is about to get healthier.
Meanwhile, Nothing makes a team more overvalued than winning a bunch of home games against bad and depleted teams. Dallas just had the luxury of playing three straight home games, and did so against Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, and Mike Glennon. over the past three weeks nobody has had it easier than them schedule wise.
Very rough beat on your essay
DeleteLiberty -33.5
ReplyDeleteColorado -6.5
Virginia tech +4
ODU +12.5
Alabama -17***
Browns -2.5
Let me start by saying…I’ve always been a big Mike Leach fan, but he is in a lot of trouble today. When you are one dimensional you don’t stand a chance against the tide. Saban now knows that they have to absolutely crush every team from here on out. I cant think of a way that this game is competitive unless Alabama beats themselves. From what I’ve seen from these teams this year, I think this game gets ugly fast. This has all the makings of a blowout. Bama 45-13.
Army +14.5 over Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteMSU -4.5 over Indiana
Panthers +1 over Vikings
DeleteJags +3.5 over Dolphins
Ravens -3 over Chargers
ESSAY: Browns +2.5 over Cardinals
This is dangerous, but I'm going to the game so why not put all my biscuits in one basket. After going 11-5 and winning a playoff game in Pittsburgh, you'd think every Browns regular season game wouldn't need to be a referendum on Baker Mayfield's future with the franchise. But in the national and local media, most of the talk following last week's loss was more or less CAN BAKER BEAT A GOOD TEAM/ELITE QB -- never mind that he passed for more than 300 yards, two TDs, and didn't turn the ball over in LA. (Stefanski was the real goat of that game, but that's a conversation for another day.) I think he'll make a lot of that discourse look silly tomorrow. With Chubb out, the onus will fall on him more than usual to move the Browns down the field, and he should look solid against a defense that brought out the best in Kirk Cousins earlier this season. He's not a great QB, but he's a good one, and that will be good enough for a win against the definitely-not-going-undefeated. Mercury Morris better have his Dom Perignon ready.
I meant Browns -2.5, apologies for the error!
Delete1. Army +14.5
ReplyDelete2. Bengals -3.5
3. Steelers -4.5
4. Bills -5.5
All Play – Browns -2.5
Essay – Air Force +4.5
Armed forces week for me. Only college bets are the service academies. Thank you to the troops. I’ve watched a total of 30 milliseconds of Air Force football this year but a lot of the noise I’ve heard on the radio this week suggests a big upset in the Mountain West tonight. Troy Calhoun seems to get his guys up every week and despite being a service academy option team, Air Force tends to be able to throw the ball and throw up some points when they need to. Other than a heart breaker to Utah State, Air Force has consistently put up 24+ points per week, including a good win at Wyoming last week. Boise is coming off a big win at BYU and might have a let down spot. Add in that it’s a night game and the rocky mountain region is starting to cool off, this game may come down to who can run the ball most efficiently.
Rice +18.5 / UTSA - Essay
ReplyDeleteSorry, misprint there. Rice is the vote but just for 1. Essay tomorrow.
DeleteLions +3.5 / Bengals
DeleteBears +4.5 / Packers - Essay
Rolling with the Bears this week. Surprisingly 3-2 and playing for a stake in the NFC North at home. Being at home has meant very little against the Pack for pretty much the last decade. The defense is keeping them in games, and even held up decently against the Browns when they had absolutely no support from the offense. GB has three straight wins, but I don't envision SF, pittsburgh, or Cincinnati making the playoffs. But, you know who did make the playoffs last year? The Bears. Give some credit here. Matt Nagy is pretty much a punchline at this point, but I like what Justin Fields brings to the table and I think the Bears cover in a close one.
and...
DeleteBrowns -2.5 / Cards
Ravens -3 / Chargers
Giants +10.5 / Rams
College pick, uh, Alabama I guess, although had I not been out at the zoo I probably would've gone along with Nick's Kent State pick because I like the reasoning.
ReplyDeleteDolphins -3.5 over Jaguars, in under the wire
DeleteAll-Play Cardinals +2.5 over Browns
DeletePackers -4.5 over Bears
Cowboys -4 over Patriots
Essay Bills -5.5 over Titans — not nearly enough points. I have picked the Titans more times than is sensible so far this year and mostly paid the price. They’ve ended up 3-2, sure, they beat up on the Jaguars, but I am adopting the unconventional position that the Jaguars are bad (notwithstanding what is currently happening in London). The Cardinals, probably the only top-tier opposition they’ve had, sacked Tannehill six or seven times. Now they’re up against one of the league’s few unquestionably elite defenses, and I don’t think they have the horses. Less than a TD here is a bargain.
1. Oklahoma -13.5 vs. TCU
ReplyDelete2. Jaguars +3.5 vs. Dolphins
Delete3. Vikings -1 @ Panthers
4. Packers -4.5 @ Bears
5. All-Play: Browns -2.5 vs. Cardinals
6. Essay: Chiefs -7 @ Football Team
For as bad as the Chiefs defense has been, the Football Team defense has been right up there in sucking. At a press conference Ron Rivera said the following when answering questions about their 2-3 start:
"You almost want to say I wish 7-9 last year wouldn't have been good enough to win the division that way the expectations would've been much lower and been a little easier. This is hard.."
What stands out here is the reminder that this is a sub .500 football team from last year that people continue to have high expectations for, and it starts with the defense that is complete ass right now. If I'm a DC I don't want a get right game for my defense to come against the Chiefs fresh off a nationally televised embarrassment. I don't see a Taylor Heinicke led offense keeping pace with a Patrick Mahomes led one and will take the Chiefs to cover the -7.
Hi everyone, I know the post will be up later today but wanted to lock in tonight's Coastal Carolina -5 over App State and tomorrow's SMU -14 over Tulsa.
ReplyDeleteSorry that's SMU over Tulane, not Tulsa.
Delete