Cheddar Bay Week 5: #4 Penn State +2 @ #3 Iowa
For the first time since 1962, the Big 10 has a matchup of Top 5 teams that does not involve Ohio State or Michigan, which makes it easy to see why this is our all-play. Add in a historically decent football program hosting their biggest home game since 1985 and it is must-see TV. Just beware, presumably because FOX has some requirement to put big games on at weird/bad times, it's a 4pm kickoff. However, great news is we will be enjoying Gus Johnson on the call.
Just a heads up to the powers that be, my score was recorded incorrectly for last week. I picked Kansas State vs Oklahoma, who covered, but it was recorded that I picked Kent State vs BGSU, who did not cover.
ReplyDeleteFixed. Got my KSUs mixed up.
DeleteWFT +1.5
ReplyDeleteBucs -10
Texans +9.5
Giants +7
AP: Iowa -2
Essay: Cardinals -5.5
Welp, I guess I'm sticking with the only thing that worked for me last week as I went 1-5...smh...and that is a rookie QB going on the road for his first career start only to have to play against one of the best teams in the league up to this point. That's where we find Mr. Lance as he has to go up against the Cardinals who look like they can't be stopped on offense. Lance could present a few challenges for Arizona since he is more mobile than Garoppolo, but he's still an NFL puppy that will probably be forced into some poor decisions that cost his team. The Cardinals defense does practice against Murray afterall so you'd think they'd have a scheme or two that they can use to stop Lance. Also, as far as I'm concerned there is only one "Trey" and that's Anastasio who will melt your face with the guitar. Cardinals stay undefeated with a 9 point win while I eat some gummies and jam out to some Phish. SKOL!
(Might change my essay pick if it comes out from now until Sunday that Garoppolo is going to start...guess we'll see.)
Rams -2.5
ReplyDeleteGB -3
Minn -7.5
Baltimore -7
AP - Iowa +2
Essay - Tennessee -4 over Jacksonville
I can't get a handle on most teams so far this season. You would think with such a glut of struggling rookie QB's, these picks would have some clarity. Yet, I'm still struggling. So....let's go with the old reliable and bet against the league's worst head coach (and somehow, it's not Matt Nagy). The anonymous comments coming out this week from Jaguar players hints that Meyer is viewed as a clown. This team is already done with him and if you read between the lines, one of the league's more patient owners is close to taking the same stance. Adding to this dumpster fire are the Titans, who are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets and looking to right their season.
Quick check-in from America's left coast as we prepare for our Cleveland Browns to beat Lightning.
ReplyDeleteAP: Penn St. +2 @ Iowa
1: Bills +2.5 @ Chiefs
2: Bengals -3 v. Packers
3: Michigan St. -5 @ Rutgers
4: Oklahoma -3.5 @ Texas
Essay: Titans -4 @ Jaguars
"The Electrician Who Shocked the NFL With the Videos of Urban Meyer" is quite the headline for the Wall Street Journal. Like, the Onion looked at that headline and was like "nah, too unbelievable". But low friend of the Godfather of Cheddar Bay, Browns fan and unsuccessful Ohio politician has turned the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars into a week-long national story by once again exposing the coach's lack of candor, ethics and ability to tell the truth. The Jags lockerroom has reportedly been a mess all year, and now dear leader skipped the team plane home to fondle strangers while drunk off his ass and out with a bunch of Columbus' greatest ghouls.
And who comes to town on the other side? Known Meyer "fan" Mike Vrabel. Of course, I'm a little worried about Titan team health, but last checked Derrick Henry was alive and that's enough for the Buckeye legend's squad to crush an 0-4 coach in crisis.
I for one thank D.J. for his tireless "reporting" on Urban's downfall.
Rams -2.5 @ Seahawks for 1 point tonight.
ReplyDeleteAP: Iowa -2 over Penn State
DeleteUAB +4 over Florida Atlantic
Packers -3 @ Bengals
DeleteTexans +9.5 over Patriots
***Saints -1.5 @ WFT
I have been keeping an eye on the Saints ever since their week 1 manhandling of the Packers. It appears that Jameis Winston has become more disciplined and is making better decisions. Better coaching or just maturing, probably a little of both. He doesn’t have a ton of passing yards, but his QB rating right now is a very respectable 106, which is top ten. Only 2 interceptions. The Saints have a very good defense allowing only 17 PPG. The Washingtonians defense has allowed 30 PPG this year, and I feel like the Saints are due for a big game offensively after scoring relatively few points their last 3. And they want to erase the sting of an OT loss last week after they blew a lead late in the game. Bummed I won’t be able to watch this one due to programming in my neck of the woods.
Seahawks +2.5 over Rams. If I were a betting man I'd say Rams win this game by a point.
ReplyDelete(That's for 1 point to be clear thx)
DeleteReally almost had that one on Thursday despite what the final score would suggest. Cripes. Anyway ...
DeleteOklahoma -3.5 over Texas
Auburn +14.5 over UGA
Notre Dame -1 over VTech
... for one point each.
There are five Big Ten teams currently ranked in the top 11, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. All of these five teams save for one-loss Ohio State remains unbeaten to date, with four of them in the conference’s eastern division, leaving Iowa as the heavy favorite to win the western division and play in the conference title game as everyone else in the west already has two losses.
DeleteThe last thing this conference or Big Football wants to see is a 2-loss team winning the Big Ten title game.
Iowa avoids OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State this season and likely won’t be playing another ranked team after today.
Meanwhile, PSU still has these very three schools (OSU, Michigan, & Michigan State) still left on its docket, all of whom will still have to play every one of the rest.
With Ohio State already at one loss it’s especially important to keep the east’s other undefeateds clean until they have to face each other and I’d be surprised if the stripes weren’t thumbing the scale to do just that today at Kinnick with Iowa so likely to enter the title game with at worst one loss – this one.
PSU +2 for my vote of the week.
Browns +1.5 over Chargers
DeleteIowa Hawkeyes over Pedo State
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -14.5 over Auburn
Raiders -5.5 over Da BEars
Cowboys -7 over Giants
Essay: Titans over Jags
I really truly hope this is the end of my jinx essay streak. There has not been such an inept idiotic villain like Urban Meyer since the last Scooby Doo movie. Honestly, what coach is so damn full of himself that he does not fly back with his team FROM A LOSS so that he can party at the restaurant. He might be the first coach fined for conduct detrimental to the team. Then, after you get blown up ---you decide to apologize to individual position groups so that you do not have to face your entire team. To think this asshat was molding fine upstanding men like Aaron Hernandez and doesn't have the balls to face his dam nteam (well they may have been sore from all the grinding). Speaking of grinding, how amazing is it that the Jags decided to all yell "grind" when breaking the practice huddle, clearly another sign you have the respect of the team you are supposed to be leading out of this 0 and 4 hole. The best part is that to make this pick you do not even have to address the fact that Brown should be back for the Titans to help King Henry and that the Titans are going to be hungry after a pathetic loss to the Jets. The Titans are a team fighting for a playoff spot and the Jags are fighting off being the butt of late night jokes. GRIND!!
Iowa over Penn State
ReplyDeleteArizona State over Stanford
Nebraska over Michigan
UCLA over Arizona
Wisconsin over Illinois
Bengals over Packers
I'm going to essay Nebraska as I think they are going to be eager to vent some frustration and lock up a win they absolutely have to have. Michigan is solid but they have not faced a single team that can move the ball, and Adrian Martinez is good enough to give them fits. Nebraska is great at stopping the run. Michigan isn't terrible at throwing but Nebraska completely disrupted Peyton Thorne and they're going to make things very hard for McNamera or McCarthy to push the ball downfield.
DeleteGreat home field advantage is in play too. Michigan did well at Wisconsin but they put that crowd to sleep early and their defense got to face a complete bum at QB. This is the game Nebraska breaks through, Michigan loses a tough one close for their first L.
Iowa -2
ReplyDeleteNFL to follo
Bucs -10 (vs Dolphins)
DeleteSaints -1.5 (at WFT)
Vikings -7.5 (vs Lions)
Chiefs -2.5 (vs Bills)
ESSAY: Bengals +3 (vs Packers)
First off, Burrow looking really good. And with the Jags second half, they now have extra rest and a bunch of momentum. But this is more an anti-Packers play. 1) they are decimated by injury. 2 lineman out, 3rd a gametime decision, and top CB, top edge rusher out. 2) the Packs wins this year a unimpressive (Lions stink, San Fran had a bunch of injuries mid-game, and the Steelers are trash. Time for the Bengals to get a bit more respect. This is a statement game for Cincy/Burrow and they are far more healthy. Bengals 30, Packers 20
Stanford +11.5 vs Arizona st
ReplyDeleteNorthern Illinois +13 vs Toledo
DeleteBuffalo Bulls (not Bills) + 5 Kent St
DeleteThe first Buffalo football team was started in 1894 by a group of medical students- given the lack of medical treatments that actually did anything during that era, this seems like a good use of their time. Their coach in the late 1899 was Bemus Pierce of the Seneca Nation, the first Indigenous football coach in the country (and a Kenyon College graduate). The Buffalo Bulls mascot works fairly well for football, but the women’s teams changed their name to the Buffalo Royals in 1997 (I guess the being the Buffalo Cows would hurt their athletic recruiting efforts-not sure what a Buffalo Royal is though) Obviously I am not finding much exciting to essay about and I am at my 1 hour time limit on cheddar voting prep for the week. Buffalo outranks Toledo in more than 50% of measured stats , Kent is not a far drive, and it's not much of a home field advantage.
Lions +7.5 vs Vikings
Iowa
Wyoming + 6 vs Air Force
NCAAF:
ReplyDeleteOle Miss
Oklahoma
All Play:
Penn St.
NFL to follow
Jaguars
Deletelast two later
Regular: Browns
DeleteEssay: Bills
Curiously low number here. I recognize that most power rankings have these teams even or near even, but Arrowhead typically a heavily weighted home field. Chiefs have had all manner of issues this year. The offensive line fix has not really been a fix. The defense is incredibly bad. Poor against the pass and the run. They still have the offensive weapons, but if the Bills are truly elite they should be able to slow down this attack enough and score nearly at will. Whether this comes to pass I have no idea, but posting -2 for this one is begging for short home fav with explosive offense action.
Penn State over Iowa for a point
ReplyDeletePSU +2 over Iowa
DeleteTexans +9.5 over NE
SF +5.5 over AZ
Chargers -1.5 over Cle
Bears +5.5 over LVR
Essay: NO -1.5 over WFT
I had high hopes for the WFT this year, really did. Even lucked into a last-minute backdoor essay win with them last week. But Chase Young and company on that D continue to disappoint, terribly. I’m betting on Sean Payton to rally his troops after a truly abysmal home loss where they let Daniel Jones rally from a 11 point fourth quarter deficit. Expect the Saints to come in hungry, control the ball, and rebound with a road victory.
Penn st over Iowa for the AP
ReplyDelete1. Michigan State -5
ReplyDelete2. Wyoming +6
3. Boise State +6
4. Steelers -1
All Play – Iowa -2
Essay – Titans -4
Here comes the I love corn special. Can’t believe this line has moved down from 7.5. The Jaguars are coming off yet another loss and I can’t imagine that locker room is in love with leadership when after a loss the ol’ ball coach dips from the team charter to “spend time with his grandkids,” specifically the 22-year-old sorority girl grandkids. Urban was a long shot as a success story in the NFL to begin with and now with the big social L and a stream of Ls for the team they may as well pack up shop for the year. Also – they play terrible football. The titans however will have AJ Brown back, probably still no Julio, and I expect them to do titans things – strong run game, play action pass and game management. They’ll also be a bit bitter after giving the jets a win last week. Thesis here is a distracted jags team with poor leadership vs. a structurally sound titans team with good leadership and a bit of a chip on their shoulder.
Iowa -2 over PSU
ReplyDeleteOhio State -21 over Maryland
Steelers -1 over Broncos
DeleteDolphins +10 over Bucs
Chargers -1.5 over Browns
Essay: Bills +2.5 over Chiefs
DeleteThese aren't the Chiefs of 2018-2020 -- just look at that "2" in the loss column. In those three seasons, Patrick Mahomes was perfect in September and KC's reign atop the AFC West was never really in doubt. Incredibly, though, the Chiefs are divisional cellar dwellers through this season's quarter pole (well, close enough), and in this observer's humble opinion, at least the Chargers and the Raiders appear to be for real. All of which is to say that I think the collapse of the Chiefs' hegemonic grip on the AFC will emerge as a dominant theme this year, and if that's the case, this is a game the Bills should win. With the exception of a fluky-in-retrospect Week 1 loss to the Steelers, Buffalo hasn't lost a beat from their breakout 2020 campaign. I like them to stake their claim as the AFC's top dawg tonight.
Georgia -14.5
ReplyDeleteTexas +3.5
Georgia Tech -3.5
Green Bay -3
AP: Penn State +2
Essay no essay week
Michigan -3.5***
#380 texas +3.5
ReplyDelete396 iowa - 2
359 lsu +3
hometeam
dolphins +10
Deletepanthers -4.5
bills +2.5 essay
11 th hour switch: (in lieu of bills)
Deletechiefs -2.5....because, the chiefs defense has worked wall week to get. off. the field. the bills have a slight advantage with w/l record; but chiefs at home is a rich opportunity (sorry browns).
the addition of gordon is of particular interest, can the wide receiver duo out play the bills' cornerbacks? probably. it's sunday night.
give me chiefs -2.5
Essay skip week, ND -1 @ VT
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Iowa -2 vs PSU
1. Penn St. +2 @ Iowa
ReplyDelete2. Eagles +4.5
Delete3. Cardinals -5.5
4. Chiefs -2.5
5. Colts +7
6. Essay: Chargers -1.5 vs. Browns
I don't like the injuries the Browns have and I don't like what I saw last week from the QB position. A trip out west going against another formidable defense doesn't get me excited for the Browns chances today. I'm banking on a touchdown from Donald Parham Jr., A fellow Hatter, since that seems to be all he does when he touches the ball. I think Herbert utilizes his legs more this game than others this season to effectively make plays when blitzed, and ultimately the Browns will have to throw the ball to win and not be able to do so well enough.
Penn State -2
ReplyDeleteRest to follow
re-posting here to keep it all together
DeletePenn State -2
UConn -3.5
UTSA +4
Kentucky -3
Texans +9.5
WFT +1.5 (Essay)
Coming off a crap run last week, let’s see what happens. Last week the Saints lost to the Giants. At home. While this fact alone doesn’t mean they’re terrible, it does point to internal weakness. This is a very winnable game for WFT, soon to be renamed the Guardians or the Reagans or Lobbyists. 9-7 could be good enough to win their terrible division provided the Cowboys don’t separate themselves from the pack. I’m hoping Riverboat Ron doesn’t waste ther opportunity.
Penn State +2
ReplyDeleteEagles +4.5 / Panthers ESSAY
DeleteSurprisngly for a 1-3 team, the Eagles have the 9th ranked total offense and 14th ranked total defense in the NFL thus far. That's because Philly has had a tough road thus far with three straight losses: SF, Dallas, and KC. Not shabby competition. They beat up the Falcons 32-6 in the opener. Now they get a Panthers team that has wins over the Jets, the Texans, and the Saints, that is reeling from injuries and overperforming at the QB position. The wrong team is getting points here.
Bears +5.5 / Raiders
DeleteColts +7 / Ravens
Vikings -7.5 / Lions
49ers +5.5 / Cards
All-Play Iowa and I'll get everything in the spreadsheet this evening.
ReplyDeleteSaints -1.5 over WFT
DeleteTitans -4 over Jaguars
Bills +2.5 over Chiefs
Ravens -7 over Colts
Essay Cowboys -7 over Giants — arguably an overreaction to one weird, good game from the Giants, this is team #2 in DVOA (although opponent adjustments haven’t properly kicked in yet) at home favored by 7 right after beating the Panthers by 8. Injury reports are less unfavorable for Dallas; apparently Andrew Thomas is “limping” and Daniel Jones is still playing, at best, streaky. If the Cowboys have a better chance of scoring 30 than the Giants do of scoring 20 — and with Cooper and Elliott playing I think they might — then this isn’t a bad line, “weird stuff happens in divisional games” notwithstanding.
Penn State -2
ReplyDeleteUConn -3.5
UTSA +4
Kentucky -3
Texans +9.5
WFT +1.5 (Essay)
Coming off a crap run last week, let’s see what happens. Last week the Saints lost to the Giants. At home. While this fact alone doesn’t mean they’re terrible, it does point to internal weakness. This is a very winnable game for WFT, soon to be renamed the Guardians or the Reagans or Lobbyists. 9-7 could be good enough to win their terrible division provided the Cowboys don’t separate themselves from the pack. I’m hoping Riverboat Ron doesn’t waste ther opportunity.
okay i got my college picks in under the wire via text to pete. promise i tried to access via phone but it didnt take.
ReplyDeleteiowa (w)
charlotte -3.5 at fiu
jags +4 vs titans
chargers -1.5 vs browns
cowboys -7 vs giants
did you know daniel jones is the giants' rushing leader with 188 in four games? me neither. that's a statistic. i still think the cowboys are not being valued properly. they just dismantled an excellent panthers team. i guess it's good that the giants won in OT at home versus the saints, but saints arent quite the saints this year. giants are missing quite a few starters too. but mainly i think prescott and that offense are vibing as well as anyone in the league giving a touchdown at home seems a bargain.
bills +2.5 at chiefs
Nick Harlow
ReplyDeleteBears over raiders essay
I like the bears because they have new QB and new coach calling plays so there’s plenty of surprise and no tape out there for the raiders. I think the raiders are feeling a little down and banged up from a tough loss on Monday night. I like the bears d vs raiders o, especially with jacobs nor running 100%. And the weather here in the chi has been excellent so why wouldn’t the bears play well at home with it’s been 70 degrees all week in mid October
Chargers -1.5 vs browns
DeleteCowboys -7 vs giants
Eagles +4.5 vs panthers
Steelers -1 vs Broncos
Hey exec committee, you may have forgotten about Tuesday night Sunbelt early voting fun, but i haven't. Scores and odds has App st -4 right now so I will take them over the Ragin Cajuns.
ReplyDelete