Cheddar Bay Week 4: Cincinnati -2 @ Notre Dame
If someone would have told you you'd see the day when an undefeated Notre Dame football team ranked in the top ten would be an underdog at home to the The University of Cincinnati, you'd probably say, "sounds like a great Cheddar Bay all play" and folks you won't hear this Executive Committee say otherwise.
Hello it's your old friend frowner here to welcome you to the football-voting weekend. And speaking of the Exec. Comm. it's nice to see that the emeritus member currently perched at the top of the standings has been making good use of the time that's been freed up from his executive duties. It was some fancy footwork last weekend with the last-minute revocation of the Bears essay and switch to the Cowboys. Will he keep his undefeated vote-of-the-week streak alive?
And as for the only other member of the group who hasn't missed an essay vote, (ahem) my wife, I must report that after she got home from a late shift at work last Saturday she was futzing around on her phone and told me that an access code was emailed to me and she needed me to send it to her. I figured she was trying to pay a bill or something but as it turned out she needed to log into my ESPN account so she could catch the end of the New Mexico/UTEP game. This is a lady who had been telling me for weeks that she was "too busy" for Cheddar Bay this year. Needless to say there is no telling what she has up her sleeve this week.
Finally, a couple of housekeeping notes:
(1) It's time to start collecting the entry fee, which is $100. Please at your earliest convenience paypal it to me at [first name last name [at] gmail dot com]; the same email address I emailed you the opening week thread from.
Which I think is it for now so here are the college lines and here are the NFLs. It's been great to see everyone back in the fray here these first few weeks and to watch all the votes roll in as the weekends roll on, which has, as it always has, made for an enhanced sense of community in this football America. Which of course is what what Cheddar Bay is all about. Namaste folks and a happy football-voting weekend to all.
Jags +7.5 for a point. Cinci laying > a TD just doesn't smell right yet
ReplyDeleteJags over Bengals (W)
DeleteCinci -2 over ND
Steelers +7 over GB
Cowboys -4.5 over Car
Jets +7 over Ten
Essay: WFT -1.5 over ATL
This on first blush is a weird line, with the Falcons hosting the Team, coming off a win. I’m betting big on a positive regression for the Team’s very talented defense, which has been putrid so far and shredded on third downs. I expect Chase Young and Montez Sweat to crush Matt Ryan’s soul. Gimme the three ball.
Lions +2.5 over Bears - essay
ReplyDeleteBrowns -2 over Vikings
Packers -7 over Steelers
Notre Dame +2 over Cincinnati - all-play
Michigan +2 over Wisconsin
KSU +10.5 over OU
Thoughts coming on the Leos
Just realized I forgot to come back and essay the Lions but fairly confident it won't matter. One of my dumber picks to be sure.
DeleteBengals -7.5 over Jags for one point.
ReplyDeleteWill try Maryland +3.5 over Iowa for one
DeleteGrumble grumble let's go with Michigan +2 over Wisconsin, Cincy -2 over ND, and Miss +14.5 today
DeleteNFL essay tomorrow
I'd been girding up all week to make the Browns my vote of the week but here we are on Sunday morning and just can't pull the trigger. I saw this morning on our old friend @ClevTA's feed that Baker Mayfield has never had to play a game in "a loud dome" before.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/ClevTA/status/1444322471293956098
I'm not sure whether this means he's never played in a dome before, or if the domes he's played in before just weren't loud but this seems especially significant today in a game that the Vikings really need to have. While the Minnesota defense was a sieve in the first two games, including against the Bengals (woof), and has some real problems in the secondary, being back in front of the home crowd helped a lot last week even against Russell Wilson and this week it looks like Anthony Barr will be back in the middle along with Eric Kendricks which will surely also help, as some of the new pieces on this defense get their feet under them. Shutting down Justin Fields in his first career start is one thing but Kirk Cousins unvaxxed beast-mode is something else. Both teams will put points on the board here and obviously no one would be surprised to see a close game come down to the final drive but while it would be easy enough to just lay off and pick another game, this is the one I'm going to watch and if I'm going to pick a side the "loud dome" angle tilts it for me here. It's one thing to sneak up on teams when you're the underdog but Baker Mayfield's Browns have never gone into a hostile environment like this as a favorite and pulled out a win. Vikings +2 over Browns for three points.
i want in on the benglas too pls.
ReplyDeletedumb pick above. burrow not burrow yet.
Deleteessaying the cowboys again. nice story with darnold and panthers and being without mccaffery doesnt strike me as a huge deal. this essay is about the cowboys and prescott and welp mike mccarthy. as the most casual of fans and diligent avoider of sports talk radio, especially national ones, i was never up on the mccarthy hate club. he punted when he shouldve kicked? burned timeouts in the first half? faulty replay challenges? angered a talented qb? i just never was up to date on it. im sure jerry jones was and, again owing to my lack of sportstalk listening, i dont think jerry jones is a douchey meddlesome owner. i dont even find him particularly douchey. so jones hired super bowl winning coach and is now seeing success. this is the view from here. last week was that comfy essay win we all seek. i went to bed early with my -3.5 pick up 20 at the start of third quarter. now i get to pick them again at home against a nice story and potentially great coach but who is missing their best (fantasy) player and who have squeaked past the jets, nice win against down saints at home, and expected win at houston against their 3rd string qb. ill ride the cowboys again. here's the slate:
bengals (L) vs jags
essay cowboys -4.5 vs panthers
all play nd +2 vs cincy
emu +2.5 at niu
rutgers +15.5 vs osu
browns -2 at vikes
ReplyDeleteSteelers +7
Arizona +4.5
Atlanta -1.5
Arkansas +18.5
AP - Notre Dame +2
Essay - Dallas -4.5 over Carolina
The Panthers' resurgence has been a fun storyline but there are limits to Sam Darnold on the road. The defense has improved to the point I longed for a Brian Burns-led pass rush (pre Matt Nagy dumpster fire/Myles Garrett renaissance, of course). Mike McCarthy is morphing into the contemporary coaching version of Mike Holmgren (Team President edition), which is necessary - given that the Cowboys' coordinators have the team rolling.
Essay Houston + 4.5 vs Tulsa
ReplyDeleteUtah st +9 BYU
UMass +27 Toledo
Bowling green + 17 Kent St
ND + 2 Cinci
Raiders +3 Chargers
A week of underdogs. I promised myself I would not spend more than 1 hour a week on Cheddar Bay voting. This week I am at 61 minutes already and struggling with my choices-there are just too many and I don’t have a good way to narrow down my focus, as this is one of only 2 weekends in 4 months that I don’t have to work at least one day (I like to have games to check in on during work-it helps pass the time between donning and doffing PPE, telling people terrible news, and determining which social determinate of health are driving the weekend ED visits). So I am goin with the old “essay early” strategy and picking the Houston Cougars. The Cougars and the Golden Hurricane are rivals, but it seems to be a rivalry based on them being scheduled to play against each other a lot of the years rather than proximity or any real animosity. According to wikipedia, the most infamous game in the rivalry occurred in 1968 when most of the Golden Hurricanes were out sick with the flu and Houston won 100-6. It was the last time a NCAA Division one team scored 100 points in a game (The Rockford/Trinity Bible 105-0 2003 game was probably fun though). I’m not saying Houston will score that well tonight, but considering they have averaged 34.5 points a game this year and Tulsa has only averaged 25.25, I’m saying there’s a chance. Final note, its a bit ironic that Tulsa are Golden Hurricanes while Houston are cougars. At least cougars used to be in Houston.
Loving the underdogs this week!
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame +2 over Cincy
Michigan +2 over Wisconsin
Arkansas +18.5 over Georgia
Vikings +2 over Browns
Ravens +1 over Broncos
ESSAY: Ole Miss +14.5 over Alabama
Alabama was an absolute juggernaut last season, yet Ole Miss mostly kept up with them in a 63-48 shootout (pretty impressive given what the Tide ended up doing to ND and OSU in the playoff). With Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle having since graduated to the NFL, this year’s Bama offense isn’t nearly as potent, while the Rebs’ defense has improved. Lane Kiffin has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and we know from the piece linked below that, when Kiffin was coaching under Nick Saban, he literally made a list of everything Saban ever said “was a problem to defend” and incorporated those things into last year’s game plan against the Tide. I’m thinking Kiffin will summon some of the 2014-15 Hugh Freeze magic and get the most of his old boss this time around. Get your Matt Corral Heisman bets in now, folks.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32305358/nick-saban-lane-kiffin-year-changed-alabama-football-forever
AP: Cincinnati -2 @ Notre Dame: The truly degenerate special this weekend is UConn-Vandy. But this will do, I guess.
ReplyDelete1. Penn St. -13 v. Indiana
2. Michigan St. -10 v. Western Kentucky
3. Panthers +4.5 @ Cowboys
4. Broncos -1 v. Ravens
Essay: Dolphins -1.5 v. Colts
All drive should end in a kick and since I'm on my way to Minnesota this weekend, I punt my essay. See you next week from sunny Southern California with a few more words. Go Browns!
Panthers +4.5
ReplyDeleteTitans -7
Saints -7.5
Raiders +3
AP: ND +2
Essay: Bills -16.5
Essay to come...
This essay really has nothing to do with how well I know either of these teams (I'm pretty sure the Bills are good and the Texans are not) and more so on my initial reaction to the huge spread. My first reaction was probably not unlike many of yours in that anytime you see a 16.5 point spread you think "yikes, that's a lot of points" and "well, this game will definitely come down to gargabe time play." My personal history with spreads this big are not pleasant either. I was at US Bank Stadium in 2019 when the rookie-Josh-Allen-led Bills waltzed in as 16.5 point dogs and trounced the Vikings by 21. It was embarrasing and lead to very heavy drinking from which I haven't recovered. In fact, in each of the last three NFL seasons a 16.5+ point dog has not only covered, but WON the football game (Fins v Pats 2018, Bills v Vikes 2019, and Jets v Rams 2020) showing Vegas they need to put down the hype pipe every once and a while. Which leads us to this game...my gut tells me laying 16.5 is too many and to take the underdogs, but my brain tells me the Bills are good and the Texans are not...but probably not thaaaat bad. Even so, the Bills Mafia is too much for David Mills in his first road game as a starting QB and the Bills survive some (impressive) garbage time play to win by 20. SKOL!
Deleteap cinn -2 v nd
ReplyDeleteole miss +14.5 v alabama
kentucky +8 at home (florida)
bears -2.5 at home (lions)
titans -7 v jets essay to follow - mike vrabel enjoys a slaughter
ravens +1 v broncos
hometeam
transitive property states if x=y and y=z then x=z. analytical calculus says if x>y and y>z then x>z. the titans are better than the broncos, the broncos crushed the jets, so.....
Deletewhat makes this game interesting? It's the vrabel factor. vrabel is a league veteran who galvanized his reputation when he was a player in ne. a bully who will put the weakling's face in dog doo. no mercy.
give me titans -7.
dark take: ne is a cold, miserable place and so is BB. if he can't win watch him to fuel the defense like 11 year-olds on adderall and take brady out. a biblical finish.
last minute switch: lions +2.5 v bears.
DeleteNote Dame +2 vs Sinsinaddy
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -18.5 over Arkansas
Lions +2.5 vs the Bears
Raiders +3 vs. The Team formerly known as the SuperChargers
Essay
Tampa + whatever vs. Satan
Another week, another jinx. The true perfection of this pick though is I win no matter whose season I ruin. First off, to think that Brady and Gisele are not absolutely waiting to put an absolute ass-whooping on the Hoodie and Kraft is naive. How many times did Brady hear that he was a product of the patriot way" or whatever other crap was spouted by the Boston loving homer former players that seem to make up most of ESPN's football analysts? The answer is way too many. The Pats have no James White, no receiving core and no hope. That Tampa defensive line is going to be on a first name basis with Mack Jones's family after paying their condolences for the tragedy in Foxborough. This is even with Gronk listed as doubtful. With Gronk, dear god Brady will have him set the TE TDs caught in a single game (the record is 5 by the non rapist Winslow for the record). If I were to venture a guess, this is one of those games where the Chowds cheer for Brady for about the first drive and then lament their life and franchise's mistake as he starts the Curse of the Bradyno and jinxes this trash team for hopefully a solid seventy years.
(It was a fumble, the tuck rule was BS)
you drunk and going against me picking the Pats.....SAD!
DeleteCollege/AP: Notre Dame +2
ReplyDeleteNFL to follow
Lions +3
DeleteCowboys -4.5
Chiefs -7
Seattle +3
Patriots +7
Pats as +7 at home seems nuts for a team predicted to win 9-10 games. Trent Brown back for Pats, which has been a major hole for them. Pats crowd going to be electric. I know we act like Brady is unflappable, but actually he is mortal and the emotions of it all have to be somewhat distracting. Plus, Brady just looked not good in LA. And no Gronk, who has been surprisingly big. And Belichick. I mean, fuck that guy, but the disrespect on his name right now is getting wild. He is an amazing defensive mind that should be able to come up with some shit to stifle a Bucs team that doesn't seem capable of running the ball. Pats 16, Bucs 13
1. All-play: Cincinnati -2 @ ND
ReplyDelete2. Jets +7 vs. Titans
Delete3. Browns -2 @ Vikings
4. Cowboys -4.5 vs. Panthers
5. Chargers -3 vs. Raiders
6. Essay: Washington Football Team -1.5 @ Atlanta
The Washington Football Team heads to Atlanta fresh off a trip to Buffalo that resulted in them getting smacked down. That's probably going to be the case for a lot of teams this year. In Washington's case it's their defense that hasn't seemed in sync to start the season. I like this spot as a get right/feel good game for them, much like the Browns defense got last week vs. the Bears. It won't be as dominating, but they'll get some sacks and turnovers that allow the their offense to get some good field position and Antonio Gibson/Terry McClaurin to find their way into the end zone today.
Ole Miss +14.5 @ Alabama
ReplyDeletePSU -13 vs IU
All Play: ND +2 vs Cincy
Essay and other picks to follow
Akron +9.5 2 worst teams in the MAC. Hoping Akron can win outright.
ReplyDeleteFlorida -8. Kentucky has yet to make me a believer of their 4-0 start.
Liberty +2 UAB being favorites was a little confusing here. Give me the points
Vanderbilt-14.5. Vandy is horrible, but UCONN is the worst team I’ve watch in the last decade. Even vandy should cover this.
Tampa Bay -7. Just don’t see how Tom Brady doesn’t go back and win by blowout.
AP & ESSAY***
NOTRE DAME +2
Again in a situation where I can’t believe I get the chance to take NOTRE DAME with points. I think it downright disgraceful to have ND as underdogs at home against a Cincy team who squeezed one out against Indiana and won 2 games against the bad news bears and the little sisters of the poor. Whether Jack Coan plays today or not, ND still moved the ball up and down the field against Wisconsin late in that game. Still not convinced that Ridder is this elite/NFL talent QB and this will be the game where everyone gets to see that Cincinnati doesn’t belong in the playoff conversation. I don’t even need the 2 points. Give me ND straight up at home. Fighting Irish for 3 big ones today. LFG!!
1. Browns -2
ReplyDelete2. 49ers -3
3. Arkansas +18.5
4. Ole Miss +14.5
All Play – Cincy -2
Essay Pick of the Week – Oregon -7.5
Stanford just lost a relatively close game to a talented, up and coming 2010 Oregon Duck Team (Chip Kelly’s UCLA). Their D got pretty banged up in the process. I don’t think Stanford has the quality of depth on defense that they’d need to stop the spread run attack against an extremely good Oregon O-Line. They might be able to put up some points but likely keep it under 21. May be even less if stud DE Kayvon Thibodeaux ends up playing. Supposedly he was good to go last week at Arizona, but it’s Arizona and he took the rest instead. Oregon has played tough against a really gritty Fresno team and their statement win against Ohio State, as well as some cupcake beatdowns that last two weeks which means they’re coming in pretty healthy and pretty confident. I love Anthony Brown. He’s a veteran QB that makes really good decisions and let’s the talent around him shine (see 0 interceptions and 200+ rushing yards per game). I see Oregon’s o-line setting the tone early, maybe ripping off a few big run plays and controlling the game from start to finish. Oregon by 10+.
Essay: Eagles (to follow)
ReplyDeleteOthers:
TCU
Stanford
Mississippi
San Francisco
All play: Cincy
Essay: Eagles
DeleteClassic spot with team everyone thinks is great who needs a win (Chiefs) vs team that not many think is even good AND who just looked horrendous in prime time (Eagles). Full disclosure, this is a painful one for me to play mainly because I think the Eagles are very very bad, but there is no way around this. Further support for this come form the line movement as this opened at 6.5, was bet up to 7.5 quickly, but found support there and has settled back to 7 with some vig shaded to the Eagles. I can't imagine many squares are trying Philly here so I'll give them a shot. Eagles for the essay.
Haha nobody sticks to their principles the way you do, Squeeky. Eagles, woof. Respect.
DeleteND +2 (seems too good to be true, yet I can’t bring myself to heed my own advice)
ReplyDeleteLouisville +7
Rutgers +15.5 (Essay)
UTEP -6
Dolphins -1.5
Niners -3
This weekend’s NFL features the Andy Reid Bowl in Philly in addition to the Tom Brady Bowl in Boston. I think RU’s last coach before Schiano was from Ohio State, their opponent today. RU has been moving in the right direction, and last week’s showing vs. Michigan was impressive. The spread points to an Ohio St blowout, which I don’t see happening this time around. OSU is still Ohio State, however they’re not striking fear into the hearts of opponents the way Alabama or Georgia does. A neighbor (with RU ties) told me that below the radar, Rutgers football brings in enough revenue to keep their other sports very competitive. Schiano is not the greatest coach in the history of coaching by any measure, but his secret sauce recipe seems to work here. They’re reliably beating non-conf opponents, are not getting crushed by B10 powers, and are setting themselves up to steal a conference win or two. RU will be back in bowl games if they keep this up.
Eastern Michigan +2.5 @ Northern Illinois
ReplyDeleteEssay & AP:
Notre Dame +2.
Two weeks ago I watched most of the Indiana/Cinci game. Like a schmuck, I was on the Bearcats. I watched Tom Allen outcoach Luke Fickell, a poor man's Rob Riggle, over and over and over again. The refs were egregious. Which is fine. Just be egregious to both sides. But no, the refs made a BS targeting call against the Hoosiers' "heart and soul" of the defense and the fate of the game was determined from there. Cinci didn't win, Indiana lost. I can't imagine the refs in South Bend falling under the spell cast by Fickell's desperation today. But I've been wrong.
I think home field advantage hits differently (harder) this year. I can still hear the hum of Arrowhead when I close my eyes at night after the Browns' first game.
Cinci did have a bye week but I'm not buying it. They have no idea which quarterback to prepare for and I kind of love that. Coy Brian Kelly is my favorite version of Brian Kelly.
G'Irish!
Stanford +7.5 vs. Oregon (let the Pac-12 annual cannibalization begin!)
DeleteThis is CLTIL:
ReplyDeleteWMU -6.5 @ Buffalo
*** Cincinnati Bearcats -2 @ ND
All-play and essay special! I got a kick out of seeing the AP selection this week. Pulled up the site to check week 4 lines, and heard “Hey, I have that shirt!!” Turns out I’m in North Carolina with my daughter and almost-2-year old granddaughter for a few glorious days so Daddy could fly to Cincy and then road trip to ND with some childhood buddies to watch his beloved Bearcats in the game that’s finally here. Not his alma mater but a family obsession those Bearcats. We’ll be cheering down here for them to break the long home winning streak of the unlucky Irish today. Baby girl knows the cheer, I will by game time.
Shoot, too late for WMU pick, so scratch it and add Baylor +3.5 over Oklahoma St.
Deletethx!
DeleteBrowns -2 @ Vikes
Steelers +7 @ Packers
Seahawks +3 @ Niners
Panthers +4.5 @ Cowboys
ND +2 - all play
ReplyDeleteColts +1.5 / @ Dolphins - Essay
DeleteColts have faced a tough slate thus far: Rams, Titans, Seahawks. Dolphins also have faced a tough slate: Raiders and Buffalo. Neither team has found their footing, but I think Indy is the better team. Pure stats they have a better total D and total O, even though they have faced a tougher schedule. Their have their starting QB: though he is playing less than 100% they can lean on Jonathan Taylor. Jacoby Brissett heated up in the 2nd half against the Raiders and made it a close game, but look at the numbers. 32/49 for 215 yards. That's a lot of short passes and checkdowns. I think Indy's defense gets after Brissett today and gets the Colts in the win column
Others
DeleteBears -2.5 / Lions
Giants +7.5 / Saints
Cards +4.5 / Rams
Ravens +1 / Broncos
All-Play ND +2 at Cincinnati
ReplyDeleteUh, I meant "over", whatever.
DeleteLions +2.5 over Bears
DeleteTitans -7 over Jets
Texans +16.5 over Bills
Bucs -7 over Patriots
Essay Dolphins -1.5 over Colts — Jacoby Brissett revenge game, I guess? Quentin Nelson just went on IR and Wentz has more ankle injuries than ankles, so there ought to be pressure on him and it ought to be effective. The Dolphins have looked not much worse than mediocre despite getting massacred by the Bills. The best argument I can see for the Colts is “well they’re going to come out and randomly look like world-beaters one of these weeks” and that is not much of an argument, my overall picks record this year notwithstanding. Miami should absolutely be getting more than a point and a half at home.
Nd over cinci for nick Harlow
ReplyDeleteLions +3 vs Bears
DeleteBrowns - 2 vs vikes
Glad the vikings got a win last week so the clowns aren't playing a super desperate kitchen sink 0-3 vikings team, instead they get a I think we're ok 1-2 team. Which mentally seems like a way better option. And man it sure seems like the players on the Vikings really appreciate Kevin Stefanski. Seeing quotes from Dalvin Cook and Cousins this week have been nice, and i'm not sure it means anything other than just seem coach Kevin is a good dude. This is just another opportunity for coach kevin to show his players how to lead with excellence as he heads back in his old office and approaches as 'just another game' even though this is where he spent most of his NFL life. Cousins is going to sling it and it's time for us to see the Browns 3 safety package shine in this game. I really want to get used to seeing grant Delpit on the field. John Johnson got robbed of an interception last week against the bears by a weak PA call. Browns will get two INTs this game, and they will close it out in the fourth like they normally do. clowns by 10.
Colts -1.5 vs Dolphins
Saints -7.5 vs Giants
Cards +4.5 vs Rams