Cheddar Bay Week 3: Buccaneers -1.5 at Rams
College lines are here.
NFL lines are here.
Link can take a minute to load, but they show up.
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
I'll be starting out with TNF....
ReplyDeletePanthers -8
1 point for now. May upgrade to essay. That Texans backup QB stinks. Bad.
College play:
DeleteNotre Dame +6
Final 4 Plays:
DeleteChiefs -6.5
Browns -7
Dolphins +4
Essay: Jets +11
The Broncos have already made some money for me this season and I even have a small bet on them to win the AFC, which had nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers speculation. Just a pretty talented team with a great defense was the theory. Sure Teddy Bridgewater is probably not winning any Super Bowls, but they’ve got good receivers on the offensive side, so you never know right?
Well they are now devastated by injuries. They lost Jeudy at WR, but more importantly they lost their best defensive player, the second best Chubb in the NFL. Then they just lost their best linebacker, among other injuries piling up. This is a bad spot for Denver. Sure, the good news is they’re playing the Jets, but the Jets aren't as bad as the perception. That close lost to Carolina is aging well. And now you just gotta figure a non Adam Gase coaching staff can figure a way to not put their rookie QB in such bad spots. Assuming that happens, there’s no reason this is a two score game. Broncos 17, Jets 14.
What an embarrassment that i missed the AP.....
DeleteRams +1.5
I'll remove Chiefs, so here I am....
1) Panthers
2) Dame
3) Browns
4) Dolphins
5/AP) Rams
6/Essay) Jets
Panthers -8
ReplyDeletePenn St -29.5
Miss St +2.5
Vikings +1.5
AP: Rams +1.5
Essay: Raiders -4
Wanna get my picks and essay in early so I don't run into the same issue I had last weekend when attending the super spreader in South Bend to watch ND beat Purdue. This weekend I'll be headed to the 11a (why is this not a night game?) super spreader at Soldier Field to watch the Beeeeyadgers v ND. Should be fun...anyway, say whaaaaaat? The Raiders are 2-0. Hard to believe, but Derek Carr and the Raiders have looked pretty dang good these first two weeks. Both the offense and defense have been solid. On the other hand, Miami has been struggling offensively, and with Tua likely out, I'm not sure Jacoby Brisket carves up the meat that is the on the Raiders D bone. Raiders win comfortably at home. SKOL!
ReplyDeleteEssay
Marshall Thundering Herd +7.5 vs Appalachian St
I wasn’t quire sure where Marshall was, so I did a quick google search. Top Marshall story right now "Marshall University Police Department gets news wheels.” That is not my typo. The article actual says news wheels. It’s about the police for getting some fancy motorcycles for on campus use. The next 2 articles are about the Marshall baseball team. The next one after that is another article about the motorcycle. 4th is about the golf team. Then one about the new president search. The 6th is about the Sustainability Department opening a thrift store that will sell all of the stuff kids left in dorms last spring when school ended (reduce, recycle, reuse). Only after that do I find an article about Marshall football. Seems like they are really flying under the radar, weird since they are 2nd in total rushing total yards per game, 3rd passing yards per game, 6th in completions per game, and # 1 in defense sacks per game. I was really happy to learn that the Thundering Herd referred to a Bison, actually native to WV and not a buffalo (do not live in the US).
Rams +1.5 (I prefer my teams less covidy)
Texans +8
OSU -49 (I guessed the spread was going to be 55 so this seems like a bargain)
UTEP -1
BC+1.5
I already know that this is my favorite essay this week. I tip my hat!
DeletePanthers -8 tonight
ReplyDeleteBC +1.5
DeleteWisconsin -6 (because somebody has to, might as well be me)
AP: Rams +1.5
DeleteEagles +4
***Vikings +1.5
Minnesota is 0-2 but was close in both games, losing by a combined 4 points on the road. They had the Cardinals last week but for a missed FG. Today is their home opener, and the crowd will be amped. I know RB Cook is doubtful for today, possibly limited play, but their #2 had good numbers last time they played Seattle. The Seahawks D ranks 16th overall, but near the bottom in stopping the rush. Russell Wilson can be dangerous but these teams rank about the same in passing offense this year. Cousin's numbers can’t be ignored, with 71% pass completions for 595 yards (297.5 average), five touchdowns, no interceptions for 113 passer rating. Not bad for a guy that is said to be on the hot seat. He’s got something to prove this year, and I think the VIkes win outright today for their first W. With the Browns coming into town next week, this is a must.
I'll go for a point each on the Texans +8 over Panthers and Marshall +7.5 over Appy State in date night solidarity with *my wife*
ReplyDeleteArkansas +6 over TAMU for one point
DeleteWest Virginia +16 over Oklahoma for one point
DeleteDang really wanted to essay the Hogs and then the 'eers but didn't have time to type anything up (related: when I was a kid my aunt Jeannie used to wear an old WVU shirt that said "how bout 'em 'eers!" in script over a sketched mountainscape) so I guess I'll go with the Rams today. I dunno folks just seems like the Bucs are really due for a loss and that the Rams are one of the few teams likely to give them one. As noted in my first essay, the NFL really wants to make the Rams happen to justify this $5 billion stadium, leaving St. L and everything; The game is in L.A. and if anyone can to make Tawmmy the statue sweat in the pocket it'd be Aaron Donald.
DeleteSo Rams +1.5 over the Bucs for 3 points for Old Frowner.
And Bears +7 over Browns for my 6th and final vote this week.
DK - Cleveland Reboot
ReplyDeleteUtah State +8.5
Titans -5.5
New England -3
Miami +4
GB +3.5
AP and ESSAY - TB -1.5
I cannot figure out why the Rams receive so much hype - either now, last year or during their accidental Super Bowl season. They always appear a few plays away from being an 8-8 team. While Stafford is an upgrade over Goff, he's not the transcendent talent sports writers were gushing over all offseason. Let's see him play against the league's best DC and a premiere pass rush. Tampa's dynamic passing game will be a huge test for the Rams defense - who so far have faced dink and dunk offenses in the Bears and Colts.
I feel this deeply. Especially the observation about being mere plays away from being 8-8.
Deletebc +1.5
ReplyDeleteum -20.5
ark +5.5
bears +7
i obv hate to essay this but i have a clear take. after an offseason of messaging that i interpreted as: linebackers are so 1970s.. we're gonna run 4-2-5 and 4-1-6 looks.. jok is a fit for us because he's actually as much a strong safety or monsterback as he is a linebacker.. its all about coverage and thatll let our edges go wild. after all that talk it seems to me that im still seeing mack wilsons and sione takitakis running around in space making tackles after 15 yd gains. qbs seems to be getting the ball out to open targets without being especially hurried. layer in that the 'big' linebacker acquisition and presumably best lb on the roster is now on IR.. i dont see how a competent coaching staff armed with both film and a speedy qb wont continue to exploit the vast acreage of grass where our linebackers wander around.
rams +1.5
cowboys -4
i am withdrawing this essay as jok starting kind of nullifies its premise.
Deletewill conjure something on cowboys tomorrow likely on my journey/conversion into dak prescott believer.
ok, essay bullet dodged. as for tonight, im late on the dak prescott train but in a different way i think. i love love loved him at missy state and i remember when he was drafted in the fourth round that that was good value. but my picture was of a big and strong yet poised qb but not a passer. strong arm sure, but didnt see any signs of the things that turn a strong arm into nfl passer: specifically accuracy, quick defense reads. the pocket poise, i think, has always been there. and maybe that is the factor that is hardest to get if you dont have it. prescott will stand in and has obviously worked hard to get better in the other areas. week one versus tb was a revelation to me. importantly, his receiving corps looked better than expected too. jalen hurts on the other hand... really not sold on him. no one likes giving four points but the cowboys at home on mnf has always been kinda magic.
DeleteWake Forest +4 People are sleeping on the demon deacons this year.
ReplyDeleteNorthwestern -14.5 Northwestern is bad, but OU is much worse.
Iowa -22.5 Not sure Colorado State scores more than 7. 30 points is doable for the Hawkeyes
Louisiana Tech -11.5 North Texas isn’t any good
AP: Tampa Tom -1.5 They are the best in the NFL. Possibly on both sides of the ball
Notre Dame +6 ***
As a die hard ND fan, there aren’t many times that over the past few seasons that I’ve thought a team is a touchdown better than the Irish. This is just another one of those cases. Wisconsin lost a home game to Penn state to open the season and then beat a subpar MAC team by 3 touchdowns. The badger Offense hasn’t done much of anything in 2 games. Lastly this is a Jack Coan Revenge Game. He’s playing against his old team that said he wasn’t good enough as a 5th year senior.
With all this being said, anytime I can take Notre Dame and get points, I will. The Irish win outright 27-17.
notre dame +6
ReplyDeletememphis -3.5
tulane - 4
pats - 3
bucs -1.5 (brady has to come to ne as winner next week)
raiders - 4 essay to follow - theme: the raiders record should be fraud but it's not.
hometeam
the raiders were projected 1-16 by some outlets in preseason. Easy to be blinded by the glare of the stadium and the bravdo of jon gruden, the big change this year is gus bradley and the defense. the 2-0 raiders are not a fluke. Last week's win over the steelers was largely helped by special teams (14 points). Today's game, despite the loss of dolphin's starting quarterback, will still be a contest. brissett was back-up for ne when brian flores was patriots (un-named) defensive coordinator. their history is strong and successful. derek carr with a 104 rating has to continue to play out of his shoes (and lead his squad away from controversy).
Deleteflores/brissett v bradley's defense? give me vegas raiders -4
hometeam
Ball State +5
ReplyDeleteMaryland -14.5
LSU -2.5
Rams +1.5
Raiders -4 (Essay)
Cardinals -7
The Raiders have pulled off impressive wins so far this season vs the Ravens and the Steelers. It’s hard to tell if Miami is going to be a contender or become the Jaguars South. Which brings up the question of why they’re in a division with Boston, New York, and Buffalo instead of local rivals. The cohort of AFL fans is, shall we say, a declining demographic, so is it important to keep these legacy rivalries intact? The Raiders and Dolphins have a legacy rivalry too, although I’d say the current Raiders should be better than the current Dolphins by a couple of field goals (or a TD with a missed PAT) if not a TD.
Gimme Clemson for my college selection, as I will be on their campus tomorrow
ReplyDeleteWell Clemson (the team, not the campus) sucked!
DeleteJets
Saints
Rams
Eagles
Essay: Dolphins +4
We’ve all seen this movie before. Jon Gruden and his plucky squad starting off hot, coming off two impressive wins against quality AFC North opponents. Fins traveling west after a 35-0 drubbing, with their backup QB at the helm. Just seems like a prime letdown spot for the silver and black, and a bounce back opportunity for the beleaguered Dolphins. Gimme the fish.
Georgia -34.5
ReplyDeletePro to follow later
Rams (really want to pick the Bucs and jinx Brady)
DeleteCardinals -7
Seahawks -1.5
Raiders
Jinx Essay of the week
I've already ruined the season of my favorite college team so now it is time to spread the love to my favorite pro team. Da Raiders are going to definitely cover this week. First off, for the first time in forever (yeah fathers of daughters you now have the song in your head) the Raiders have an actual defense. As a Raider fan I have been lamenting the lack of a pass rush long before they drafted Crosby and that first round pick from Clemson we ignore. Also Carr is balling. Keyshawn calling him an elite quarterback has lit a fire under this dude's ass. He finally has someone to throw to other than Waller. The young wideouts of Ruggs, Renfrow and Edwards are going to keep coming into their own as defenses have to key on Waller. Jacobs being out is a cause for concern (doubtful, come on man just declare him out so I can pick up someone else for the week in my fantasy league) but Drake should do fine against this horrible Miami defense. Also without Tua I have absolutely no reason to be afraid with Jacoby Brissett running that Dolphin offense. Will Fuller is going to show up in time to meet the defensive rookie of the year Nate Hobbs. THe Raiders should flog these poor Dolphins raw and go to 3-0 on their way towards an AFC West Division title.
Clemson -9.5
ReplyDeleteRutgers +20.5
A&M -5.5
Essay: ND +6
Am I missing something? Honestly. ND hasn't looked good and has won ugly, but theyre still 3-0. Wisconsin hasnt looked good, had a bye week and is 1-1. Yet, they are favored in what is basically a ND home game? Also, have the bull shit narrative of Coak going against his old team but oh well. I think Notre Dame shows up and wins this game convincingly. I will always fade the Badgers. ND 38 - Wisco 18
Death, taxes, fade Nebraska
DeleteMSU -5
Bucs -1.5 to finish it out
Dude. Nailed it.
DeleteMiami U +7.5 - essay
ReplyDeleteTough to essay against army. They have a good team this year, they're even throwing the ball a little bit more than usual to keep teams off balance. It's just a unique offense for most teams to face. Miami has at least faced them twice during their current coaches tenure and held up well in the last ever, losing 31- 30 in 2018. They have a good interior defensive line and linebackers that can get after the ball, they held up well against Minnesota a few weeks back. Miami is my sleeper pick in the MAC. This is a one score game either way it goes.
Ohio +14
DeleteWFT +8.5
DeleteBucs -1.5
DeletePackers +3.5
Raiders -4
1. Rutgers +20.5
ReplyDelete2. Arkansas +5.5
3. Louisville -2.5
4. Steelers -3.5
All Play – Bucs -1.5
Essay Pick – Michigan State -5
Coaching trend pick. Mel Tucker seems to have MSU rolling. The offense has put up over 38 in each game this year, granted some soft teams, but they looked good on the road against a shitty Miami team. I don’t know much about the team, other than historically they can play smashmouth, Mel seems to have kept some of that toughness while emphasizing stretching the field a bit more. Long story short – MSU and Mel are trending up. I’m more confident in the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked in Nebraska. Scott Frost is on his way out, in fact, losing this conference game might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. They managed to keep it close against Oklahoma but I think that’s a sleepy Oklahoma team looking ahead, not a Nebraska team that can compete. MSU by 10.
Essay: Nebraska
ReplyDeleteMiami Dolphins
LA Chargers
San Jose St.
Wisconsin
All play: Rams
Essay: Hyper strange line alert here. Nebraska, who got bounced by trash Illinois to open the season, is a short dog on the road against Michigan St. who has been steamrolling everyone. But then again, who exactly did they steamroll? Northwestern, who subsequently lost to Duke, and Miami, who has looked non-competitive across the board. Now Mel Tucker is a great coach - lmao please. Those games were both highly visible tilts for the public to digest. Nebraska showed some fight last week against also overrated Oklahoma and is probably not as bad as advertised. I'll take a shot this week with the Huskers.
1. Clemson -9.5
ReplyDelete2. Cardinals -7
Delete3. Browns -7
4. Packers +3.5
5. All-Play: Rams +1.5
6. Essay: Titans -5.5
Give me Titans -5.5 against a QB with two sprained ankles who looks like he's going to attempt to go today. Titans are coming off an emotional OT game in which Julio Jones introduced himself to Titans fans and Derek Henry introduced himself to a larger share of the passing game. I expect the Titans to carry the momentum into this week as we see Ryan Tannehill get more and more acquainted with his first team offensive weapons that weren't there throughout the preseason and training camp. Henry's going to run; Brown and Jones are going to catch TDs; and the Titans defense should be able to outperform whatever ability they have with all the troubles Wentz is going through.
Early Saturday pick:
ReplyDelete1: Notre Dame +6 @ Wisconsin
And now the rest of the story;
DeleteAP: Rams +1.5 v. Buccaneers
2: Michigan -20.5 v. Rutgers
3: Cardinals -7 v. Jaguars: Still picking against Urban.
4: Michigan St. -5 v. Nebraska: Would have been Army over Miami U, but I was late getting to my picks.
Essay: Houston -20.5 v. Navy
Navy is a mess. The AD went over the Head Football Coaches head and fired the offensive coordinator who had been with the program for a decade. The Middies don't have a competent QB to run their option scheme. It's gonna be a long season in Annapolis.
A trip to Houston isn't exactly the "big scary" but without the ability to sustain drives and giving Holgo a chance to light up the scoreboard to turn the heat down on his seat, I can't see Navy keeping this one close.
UGA
ReplyDeleteMaryland
Tennessee
Louisville
**Essay**
ReplyDeleteWyoming -29.5 @ UConn
In another dimension, the Clemson Tigers did NOT cancel their contract and Wyoming is headed to South Carolina to participate in the biggest upset of the season. But alas, in the simulation we get (come on, act like you chose it!) The Mustangs are riding out to Mansfield, CT. A land-grant university, thank you second Morrill Act for setting a precedent that simply not being racist is a rewardable act and not just common decency.
I digress.
Let’s talk about Wyoming’s harras. Oops. I mean. Let’s talk about Wyoming’s offensive linemen. They average 6’5” in height and 315 lbs on the scale. That’s the *average*. I heard they’re eight deep, too. I am not going to officially crunch the numbers but from eyeballing the Husky OL roster, I can tell you there’s no one that weighs over 311 lbs, most are 300 or under. They do have some height though, for all the low and short passes that Wyoming won’t be throwing. There is one senior on their o-line. I see you Ryan Van Demark. I will be cheering for you and you alone on the CT squad today. I hope your day doesn’t suck regardless of the maelstrom around you.
This is a classic case of a very experienced defense against a very inexperienced offense. UConn played zero football last year. They have also dealt with some “coaching instability” as one descriptive journalist put it.
Who scores more points today, Wyoming’s offense or defense?
Oklahoma -14 vs. WVU (overreaction to how WVU looks in Morgantown)
DeleteLions +3 vs. Ravens
OSU Beavers +11.5 @ USC
One more and then the AP to come. Best/worst all-play pick. Well done.
Rams.
DeleteFalcons.
Limping into Sunday.
Iowa over CSU -22.5
ReplyDeleteRutgers over Michigan +20.5
MSU over Nebraska -5 - essay
Florida over Tennessee -20
Bucs over Rams -1.5
Browns over Bears -7
Still haven't figured out what "TUCK COMIN" means but I don't think anyone could have expected Mel Tucker to get to the start he did. Starting in the most difficult circumstance imaginable, beats Michigan and gets a top 10 victory in year one. Now he's got his franchise QB, an unbelievable running back, and all the momentum in the world. Now the test is to make sure there's no let down against a Nebraska team that is not good, but is probably good enough to pull off a win if the Spartans take them for granted.
DeleteThat said, I think Tucker knows his team still has tons of work to do to earn respect, and I don't expect to see any complacency. Nebraska, on the other hand, is prime to make loads of mistakes the minute things get tough. I'm not surprised to see this line moving consistently towards MSU. Strangely, pundits are way more bullish on the Huskers than the public, trying to give them credit for a close loss against OU. I didn't watch that game but I don't see anything noteworthy in the stat line that reflects the "Blackshirts are back." They didn't stop the run, they were consistently behind, they didn't force a turnover. All they really accomplished was limiting Rattler's yards per attempt. MSU will be more than happy to win this game with ball control and the screen game.
Let's go with Arkansas over Texas A&M for my required college action.
ReplyDeleteBucs -1.5 over Rams
DeleteFalcons +3 over Giants
Saints +3 over Patriots
Steelers -3.5 over Bengals
Essay skip week: Vikings +1.5 over Seahawks
Michigan State -5 over Nebraska. I'm not going to have a chance to update the spreadsheet with everyone's college picks until tonight or tomorrow but please be assured that everything will eventually end up where it's supposed to...
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Bucs -1.5 over Rams
DeleteTitans -5.5 over Colts
WFT +8.5 over Bills
Eagles +4 over Cowboys
Essay skip week Cardinals -7 over Jaguars
Just a guy trying to take usc
ReplyDeleteAP: Rams +1.5 vs Bucs
DeleteCards -7 @ Jags
Lions +8 vs Ravens
I thought Goff for most of last week's game played well. I like Goff indoors and not in pressure situations. Home game week 3 versus a banged up Ravens team is a perfect time to take the Sir Goff-sauce-a-lot and the Lions who are probably pissed off they did what they normally do and let Green Bay come back and win easily even though for most of that game they played well. Coach is going to be preaching 4 quarters this week and the home team by over a TD seems like my lock of the week.
Browns -7 Bears
Bengals + 3.5 Steelers