Cheddar Bay Week 2: #1 Alabama -14 @ #11 Florida
The last time Florida beat Alabama, we didn't even know that Urban Meyer had fake health issues or that Aaron Hernandez was going to have a murder conviction reversed and then double reversed. So a lot has happened since Florida's last win in 2008. Therefore, with honorable mentions to Penn State/Auburn and Cowboys/Chargers, the Executive Committee has decided to take everyone to The Swamp.
College lines are here.
NFL lines are here.
As for anyone planning on laying all those points for the Browns, please be careful out there.
FYI: been a while since I used blogger and I really can't figure out how to make that Tebow pic any smaller. Apologies.
ReplyDeleteMay just be me, but I can't get to the lines.
ReplyDeleteThey're there!
DeleteGiants over Football Team for one vote
ReplyDeleteFor the all play I'll take the Gators and the points chomp chomp .... and for my vote of the week give me PENN STATE -5 over Auburn. If you couldn't tell from last week's essay I've become completely redpilled on the American football industrial complex. On the college side of things so much of the production depends on fostering the notion that the Big Ten can remain a competitive counterweight to SEC and ACC dominance. Whoops there went the Buckeyes last week, to a PAC 12 team no less, how humiliating, so folks the Nittany Lions simply must win tonight or things will be real bad for the advertisers. Meanwhile an Auburn loss won't make a dent in any of this. Doubt the stripes will be taking any chances on this tonight but I guess this is why we watch the games folks. Hope everyone has a great weekend. Old Frowner will be back tomorrow with 2 more NFLs.
DeleteWhoops that's 3 more NFLs. Will take the Texans over Browns, Eagles over Niners, Ravens over Chiefs.
DeleteAP: Alabama -14 @ Florida: I don't even have a strong lean here, so when in doubt, bet Saban.
ReplyDelete1. Cincinnati -4 @ Indiana
2. Oklahoma -22.5 v. Nebraska: Watch for the Sooners to run this one up.
3. Steelers -5.5 v. Raiders: Hangover spot for Vegas.
4. Arizona St. -4.5 @ BYU
Essay: Broncos -6 @ Jaguars
This isn't my favorite vote this week, but it's the essay I most wanted to write. Urban Meyer NFL Head Coach is every bit the disaster we anticipated. They got dumped by the actively not trying to win Houston Texans. They let their rookie QB throw 51 times. They ran James Robinson 5 times. That's like when Urban was at OSU and wouldn't give the ball the Carlos Hyde and Ezekiel Elliot instead putting the ball in his QB's hands. Speaking of Carlos Hyde, the 100 year old running back got 9 carries. Quite frankly, I'm just going to bet against the Jags on the ever increasing lines they'll see this year until I get bit. It's still early, the Broncos are good, so I'm riding here.
Maryland -7.5***
ReplyDeleteND -7.5
Bama -14
Utah State +8
Stanford -11.5
Bengals +2.5
Illinois has been on a complete downfall since their opening win against Nebraska. The get housed by Virginia and the play some San Antonio college who is paid big dollars by the Illinois to come be a confidence booster, only to give up 40 and lose. This game is in Illinois at night and I still see this being a blowout. No chance they cover this 7.5pts. Maryland hangs a 50 spot and wins by 30. Give me the terps 51-20
DK - Cleveland Reboot
ReplyDeleteGB -11
Carolina +3.5
Tennessee +5.5
UC Bearcats -4
AP - Bama -14
Essay - Arizona -3.5
There's usually a team or two that emerges as a surprise dumpster fire in the opening week. I feel the Titans and Packers will rebound (I have two Cheddar points riding on these beliefs), which leaves the more obvious Bears, Lions, Jets, Jaguars and Falcons. Of these teams, each features either a new head coach and/or rookie QB. Not having one of these rebuilding elements makes wholesale changes much easier. This brings me to the Vikings, who feature a combustible coaching situation combined with mediocre QB play. Mike Zimmer's arrogance is wearing thin and his nepotism hires along his long neglected offense could lead to another stumble on the road against a talented Cardinals team.
Roll Tide
ReplyDeleteArizona Cardinals
Cincy Bengals
and as much as the Chiefs are overvalued I cant see how they dont crush the Ravens with all those corners out. So I'm going to pick KC.
Jinx Essay of the Week
Since I ruined the Buckeyes season last week, it is only fair I ruin my teams shot this week in return. The UCLA Bruins are going to cover and steamroll against the hapless Fresno State Bulldogs. Yes this is a dangerous pick, after all Fresno did hold its own again those pesky Ducks. However, CHIP KELLY IS BACK! This running attack is legit behind the two headed monster of Brittain Brown and Zach Charbonnet who sound more like types of alcohol than the hammers they are. This defense looks like it belongs in a much more legit power 5 conference than the PAC 12. The defensive line will be dancing in the backfield and hopefully avoiding taunting penalties as they dance over the Fresno State Quarterbacks lifeless corps.
Alabama -14
ReplyDeletePanthers 3.5
Browns -12.5
Eagles 3.5
Vikes 3.5
Essay: Titans 5.5
Having aced the exam last week except for, of course, my essay pick, here's to bouncing back. This is IMO a perfect example of a Week 2 overreaction line. TItans could not have been more putrid in week one; Seahawks were rock solid. Titans are going to feel the pressure here, expect them to bounce back.
Cinci -4 to IU
ReplyDeleteMiami -6 to MSU
ASU -3.5 to BYU
Bears -2.5 to Cinci
Alabama -14 to Florida
Essay
9ers -3 to Philly
Philadelphia beat up a terrible Atlanta squad, and San Francisco almost sh*t their pants in the 4th Q last week, but they are still the being pound-for-pound favorite over the restructuring Eagles at this point.
DeleteThe 49ers have far more weaponry on offense, particularly at the skill positions, and those will ultimately prove to be the primary difference.
It might be another high-scoring affair, especially if the defense remains shorthanded within the secondary, but the Niners as cover
you are my essay opponent.....good luck....caw caw
DeleteChuckkoz.....
ReplyDeleteAP: Bama -14
More to follow
NFL picks.....
Delete1) Panthers +3.5
2) Cardinals -3.5
3) Cowboys +3.5
4) Seahawks -5.5
Essay) Eagles +3
I really don't get all the 49ers hype this year, coming off a 6-10 year. Sure, they had lots of injuries last year, but 6-10 is bad and Jimmy G is still their QB, with some gimmick Lance shit that really never works long-term in the NFL. Meanwhile, their defense in Week 1 let the freaking Lions put up 33 and yards everywhere. So now they run into a Philly team that dominated Atlanta in all aspects on the road, now coming home to a psycho fan base that will match their psycho coach. Seems worst case scenario for Eagles is some sort of heartbreak loss, which usually means covering +3.5, while them just being better and rolling along like 23-17 seems fully in play.
ap: FLA +14
ReplyDeletewake forest -5
memphis +3.5
bengals +2.5
steelers -5.5
essay: jax jags +6 (essay to follow)
Vic Fangio coached defense is statistically a hair over 50% against rookie quarterbacks. Some of those guys turned out to be Brady and Wilson but some were Brock Osweiler-esque. This is a get-right game for jacksonville. more than a few outlets proposed urban meyer take the usc lifeboat. trevor lawrence looked shakey in the preseason and weak in game one. must show his skill today. can jax improve their offensive asset, the lawrence passing game? lawrence has to stay cool under pressure from the von miller sack. jacksonville is an immature team that will be tested every week. watch today to see if joe cullen (dc) can stop teddy bridgewater. denver clicked last week but they can be stopped. a home dog is so juicy.
Deletegive me jacksonville, +6
Florida +14
ReplyDeleteCoastal Carolina -13.5
San Diego St. +9 (POTW)
Bengals +2.5
Steelers -5.5
Rams -3.5
One of the consequences of giving up cable is that sports is a crapshoot. Maybe you’ll get a game on one of the 8 streaming services you have. Maybe you won’t. I’m watching the Hamilton Tiger-Cats take on the Calgary Stampeders. I might stay for the Argonauts vs the Roughriders, or just the ‘Riders if you’re a true fan. Or perhaps I’ll change to a documentary on snails or videos of random freight trains.
Utah so far beat Weber St and gave the BYU Cougars a run for their money. SDSU has shown no issues putting up points in their first two contests. Like a lot of West Coast / Rocky Mountain games I see this one as a high-scoring affair. 9 points is a good amount to be spotted for a game that’s likely to end up with a scoreline like 54-49, so I’m going with SDSU. It’ll be even better if I can figure out how to stream the broadcast without signing up for yet another service.
Essay UConn +33 vs Army
ReplyDeleteThe Huskies have everything I like in a Cheddar vote. Scored 0 in their last game, low % of the bets on Vegas Insider, and listed as cold cold cold on Donbest. Only the best sources for my contrarian voting. I love when teams have a terrible record against the spread. 0-6 in their last 6 games following a double digit loss at home (super helpful stat), 0-4 in last 4 games a a road underdog. Black knights are 5-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record. It just means that the spread is set to end the streak today. Just because the Huskies haven’t scored a point against an FBS team this year doesn’t mean they won’t. The over/under is 48 which means they aren’t expected to score 0, though 93% of betters think they won’t score enough for the over, which makes a Huskies vote even sweeter.
Other Votes
Alabama -14
SUNY Buffalo +13.5
Seattle -5.5
Steelers -5.5
Buccaneers -12.5
Maryland-7.5 over Illinois
ReplyDeleteMSU +6 over Miami
ASU -3.5 over BYU
DeleteFlorida +14 over Alabama
Let's lock in Rams over Colts
DeleteLast pick is the essay: packers -11 over lions.
DeleteThere's some very interesting line movements this week which indicates that the books and the public have drastically different reads on these teams. This line opened up at 7 which seems about right for a playoff team playing at home against a #1 pick contender, and the public pushed it all the way up to 11 which is a staggering amount against a team that isn't starting a backup QB or something.
The public clearly expects the Packers to come out motivated to erase their awful week one performance, and I agree. The lions showed heart against SF but they were not contending until the SF defense got lazy. The packers have a lot to prove and I don't think they'll get lazy. The lions will play tough but they won't get let into the game. The offense led by Goff is just not good and he's not capable of pushing the ball downfield. Lions defense is a humanitarian crisis. I see the packers getting ahead 3 touchdowns by the middle of the 3rd Q and the lions having no answer this time.
Bills
ReplyDeleteWest Vag
Nebraska
Kent
All Play: Florida
Essay: Fresno St. (essay to follow later)
Essay: Fresblo
DeleteI am super high on UCLA this season and was on them large vs Hawaii and LSU. The first one as an under appreciated big number fav and the second one as a small dog. This is a completely different challenge. Noncon game against very good smaller conference team. Game before conference play. Two weeks of non stop media suck off after beating a garbagey LSU squad. Huge motivation spot for Fresblo as they ran close against Oregon and now get another chance vs the Pac 12. Fresblo for our essay.
1. Virginia Tech +3
ReplyDelete2. Northwestern -3 (love the NU Duke matchups every year… coin flip for the smart kids)
3. San Francisco 49ers -3
4. KC Chiefs -3.5
All Play – Bama -14
Essay Pick – Cincinnati -4 @ Indiana
Haven’t seen a single snap of Cincy football this year but this line seems low AND they opened as dogs. First with Indiana. Every now and then they have a “shock the world” moment when they beat Iowa at Iowa in a down Iowa year. That may well happen this year as I think they bring back their starting QB Penix who has been good. However, it’s still Indiana, they’re still an ok team and will continue to be ok. All the preseason hype and analysis I listened to has told me that the playoff is only for the power 5 BUT if there was ever an outsider to break in, Cincy this year would be it. They have a veteran quarterback that slings it and is mobile, they’ve done exactly what they should do against scrub teams the last few weeks (lots of points and single digit points allowed). This is my thinking mans picks that the line is just wrong, too much credit given to Indiana. Two touchdown win for Cincy
First a quick PSA for the Cheddar family: here's a link to a torrent for Norm MacDonald's little online video show. There are three seasons, lots of big names, probably not a good candidate to binge watch. Off the top of my head, don't miss the episodes with: 3. Fred Williard, 2. Jerry Seinfeld, 1. David Spade. The striking impression is that all of his guests really really like Norm and it sure looks like they just showed up because hanging out with Norm was its own reward.
ReplyDeleteMoving on, and also randomly, USC was in the news for dumping their coach in the middle of the season. This provides an opportunity to insert a Song Girls link and so an obvious essay candidate.
https://youtu.be/Hsz4S8xJ-PM?t=90
Talk about a dynasty: Song Girls are undefeated since inception. JFC, just hire Art Briles and arm him with the Song Girls. Not even Nick Saban can recruit against that.
But now that we're locked in on a USC essay and the question becomes which side to take in their game at Pullman. It turns out the Wazzu is 8.5 dog at home. Home dog? Interim coach? This would all be easier if Mike Leach were still there but he's not and I don't quite understand how losing to Stanford is a fire-able offense. Effing John McKay would have been fired three times* if that were legit grounds for termination. In fairness McKay was 12-3 against Stanford so maybe this AD is on to something. Maybe USC both isn't that bad but also could be much better with a change at HC. Digging a little deeper, new HC Donte Williams is implementing things like expecting players to be on time for meetings and avoid walking on the SC logo in the locker room and tucking in their shirts. Boiling it down, seems like SC took an otherwise random loss to a rival and is using it to dump a six year coach who did not do basic bitch coaching/leadership things with rock star athletes. Maybe this could work. I am coming down on the side this firing providing value on the USC side.
Essay: USC -8.5
All-play: Bama -14
Cincy -4
Tulsa +25
Panthers +3.5
Rams -3.5
oops --> Norm link here: https://www.thepìratebay.com/torrent/24546351/Norm_MacDonald_Live_Seasons_1_2_3
Deletei am dropping cincy. will replace with something else later, thanks.
Deletepenn state in b4 kickoff
DeleteAll-Play Alabama -14 over Florida
ReplyDeletePatriots -5.5 over Jets
DeleteBroncos -6 over Jaguars
Cardinals -3.5 over Vikings
Raiders +5.5 over Steelers
Essay Rams -3.5 over Colts — Missed on every favorite last week after deleting Seahawks -2.5 and replacing with the Packers, almost a perfect storm of incompetence. Undaunted, here we go again with a road favorite (and the hook). Next week I am going to be on tilt and just picking the largest underdogs I can find. Meanwhile, the Colts are banged up -- especially on the offensive line, unfortunately -- and may also be actually bad; Carson Wentz should be running for his life most of the afternoon. I was among those underwhelmed by the Stafford trade but he looked fine against comparable opposition last week. Rams by a TD+ shouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility here.
Cinci -3.5 at indiana
ReplyDeleteAP: Florida Gators in the Swamp
Connecticut +34
Essay (to follow) Penn St. v. Auburn
The essay didn't follow, but I sure wish it would have!
DeleteRams -3.5 vs. Colts - Some guy made a reference to "the brilliant business man, Jim Irsay," and I thought it must be someone with the same name, so I said, "the guy with a drug problem and a suspiciously dead mistress?" and he looked at me like, no, there must be another one. And then we both said, "the owner of the Colts." We were each disappointed in our own ways.
Vikings +3.5 at Cardinals
**Week 2 Essay Pick**
Buccs -12.5 vs. Falcons - a headline read "Matt Ryan not thinking about Super Bowl loss to Tom Brady ahead of Falcons-Buccaneers game"
I literally cannot even.
Tom clearly did not have the post Super Bowl debut he is accustomed to and I have a feeling he's going to take it out on the Falcons. Poor Matty. It seriously feels like the Falcons are Tom Brady's favorite nerd cousin to pick on, verging on rattling. Last year, Tom even let them get a 17-0 start, nil until halftime, and still came back to win. Savage. Big cat and mouse vibes. I stan. No cap.
The only person on the Buccs squad who savors picking on Matty more than Tom is Bruce. Arians said Ryan will, "light you up" if he's not pressured. I don't think Bruce believes that and I think Matty Ryan knows that, and I think this is how you properly fight before a game, mentally, not two hours before the game on the field....ahem Hoosiers and Bearcats.
Buccs -12.5 v. Falcons
Cancel Vikings pick.
DeleteWake Forest -5 vs FSU
ReplyDeleteMiami (FL) -6 vs MSU
Iowa -23 vs Kent State
All Play: Alabama -14 @ Florida
Essay to follow
Bengals +2.5
DeleteEssay: Eagles +3 vs 49ers
This just in, Jalen Hurts is good and the Eagles were one of the most impressive teams last week albeit against a weak and rebuilding Falcons' defense. Devonta Smith and Hurts college collection seems to have picked up right where it left off. The 49ers have to travel into a hostile Philly to try for a win and cover on the road. With a short RB lineup and expected rotation, I think Philly bottles up the run and forces SF to the air. A couple of Jimmy G interceptions and this game becomes out of reach. Eagles 28 - 49ers 21
AP: Alabama -14
ReplyDeleteCincinnati -4
Temple +15.5
Rams -3.5
DeleteBengals +2.5
***Bills -3.5
Back to the stats pages, ugh. I read that the Bills are supposed to do better with Miami’s man-to-man defense than they did with the Steelers’ zone last week. That might explain the poor output last week (27th) from what was the 2nd best offense in all of 2020. Whatever it was, I can’t see the Bills starting off at 0-2. The Dolphin’s D was ranked #6 overall last year. They force turnovers and like to blitz. But their offense is more of an unknown. They won but were only 24th in offense last week. The Bills were #16 in defense last year and #14 last week. What do all these numbers mean? Probably not much this early. It's a given that Miami won’t let themselves get embarrassed like last year’s blowout, but I like the numbers, I like Buffalo, and I always pick against Florida teams for some unknown reason.
Posting for teddycuddles:
ReplyDeletePurdue
Eagles
Vikings
Bucs
All Play: Alabama
Essay: Packers (essay pass week)
1. All-Play: Bama -14
ReplyDelete2. Browns -12.5
Delete3. Chiefs -3.5
4. Steelers -5.5
5. Packers -11
6. Essay: Bills -3.5
Things are not going well pick wise here. I'm blaming it on the lack of sleep that comes with a newborn child because I need an excuse to be this bad. So for today's essay I'm going to rely on Josh Allen to have an amazing game against the Dolphins, which he seems to do at least once a year (AFC player of the week in 3 of the 6 games he's played vs. the Dolphins). The opener was a let down losing to the Steelers and now they're in division for game two looking to reassert themselves. Miami has some fancy new weapons, but Tua seems to still be working on his connection with them. Also, I'm betting Tua isn't going to get rid of the ball as quickly as Big Ben did, resulting in some better defensive results on the Buffalo side due to pressure on Tua and the bad throws that will come of it. Buffalo runs away with this one.
Florida
ReplyDeleteUtah - just in time
DeleteUtah State +8
DeleteFresno St +11.5 Essay
DeleteFresno State has beaten UCLA three times in a row - twice at the Rose Bowl. That's how long UCLA has been an unreliable PAC-12 team and Fresno has been a consistent player in the Mountain West. Fresno has 2 wins over nobody, and put up a hell of a fight against the same Oregon team that just rolled tOSU. Fresno had a bit of a down year last year, but I think this is a big rebound year for them. The defense managed to get pressure on UO in Eugene, and held them to 353 total yards. Fresno actually outgained them with 373 total yards, and first downs 23-20, but 3 turnovers did them in. QB Jake Haener is a legit dual threat, Chip Kelly compared him to none other than Ruseell Wilson. That's laughable, but at least a testament to his abilities. Plus, I'm always a fan of betting against a team the week they enter the rankings for the first time in xx-years, a let-down spot. And that's UCLA here: Ranked #16 after being out of the rankings since 2017. Bulldogs to cover.
Panthers + 3.5
DeleteEagles +3
DeleteFlorida for the all-play.
ReplyDeleteBills -3.5 over Dolphins
Delete49ers -3 over Eagles
Cards -3.5 over Vikings
Cowboys +3.5 over Chargers
Essay: Pats -5.5 over Jets
DeleteThe Jets looked flat-out bad last week against a mediocre Panthers team, while the Patriots were a Damien Harris fumble away from beating preseason darling Miami. Given Buffalo's Week 1 letdown, the AFC East should be wide open this year, with the Patriots in the thick of things -- assuming they don't get off to an 0-2 start. Belichick revels in taking it to the Jets, and the revamped Pats offense should look a lot more explosive against a non-Brian Flores-led defense (yes, I have Jonnu Smith on three of my four fantasy teams). It's going to be a long season for Zach Wilson -- I like the Patriots by double digits here.
Pheasantpants here:
ReplyDeletePackers (don't' need to know what the number is)
Penn State -5
Florida +14
Purdue +7.5
Iowa -23
OSU -25 Essay:
I just married a Buckeye fan. While we were on our honeymoon in beautiful St. Lucia, we spent threeish hours sitting in lounge furniture craning our neck to watch the sole bar TV as the Bucks dropped a tough one to Oregon. Another night, at dinner, some other guy (who sounded like some kind of hillbilly ACC/SEC fan tbqh) told me that Ohio State fans are "a special breed" or something to that effect. I don't think he meant it in a good way but I agree that my wife and her fellow travelers are special indeed. So much so that she wanted to go to her cousin's house to watch the Tulsa game and was generally oblivious that my actual alma mater is playing Bama at the same time (she at least acquiesced to staying home and I will put up a second TV for her to watch this game).
The Golden Hurricane did play a tough one against another OSU, but they also have a loss to UC Davis on the season. I think OSU will be pissed and wanting to run up the score. 25 doesn't strike me like a big number for a team with explosive offense looking to avenge their head coach's sole career regular season loss. Gimmie the Bucks.
I see that the Packers are laying 11 so I will take that off the board.
DeleteRams
DeleteAP: Florida +14 vs Bama
ReplyDeleteCentral Michigan +21.5 vs LSU
Browns -12.5 vs Texans
Raiders +5.5 vs Steelers
Bills -3.5 vs Dolphins
EP: Cards -4.5 vs Vikings
line has moved 3 points to the cards and why not. I like to call Kyler Murray, Sklar. Sklar leads an action packed Cardinals offense, Chase Edmonds is great out of the backfield, and Rondale Moore looks like a promising young fast small wide receiver from Purdue. Him and AJ Green give Sklar some new options to toss the ball to. Vikes will score points here but I don't think they will keep up. Vikings just seem boring, i know dalvin cook is great, but what is there to be excited about over there. let's take the exciting birdies over the lethargic scandinavians
Late picks. Missed the potw.
ReplyDeleteMy 4 nfl games:
Chargers (essay)
Cardinals
Seahawks
Chiefs
Chargers essay:
Justin big Dick Herbert is the best quarterback in the league. Keenan Allen, Austin ekeler, Mike big dick Williams, this is an unstoppable offense. Simply because Anthony “low iq” Lynn is out of the mix. After watching the boys on hard knocks, Mike “Austin” McCarthy is such a boomer turd. Cool, deke and Dak are best friends who give each other luxury luggage to each other as birthday presents, I don’t buy how that translates into winning football. That to me, shows a couple guys who are happy they got paid and will put up some stats, but are not going to give Jerry “I love whataburger and fly in helicopters “ Jones. Let’s go chargers, but fuck spanos. You guys are going to finally have a good year, 20 years in the making peace brothers and sisters.
Are we supposed to drop scoring corrections in the comments? On the sheet all my week 2 picks are correctly highlighted, but I'm missing a point for the week (should have 6 not 5). Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI'm going through and adding up the scores in one go at the end, so there will be times when a highlighted game hasn't been counted yet. When it says "(date) complete" in the top left cell of the main sheet all games played on that date should have been counted, so if there are mistakes after that then yes please let me know (probably best to just use the most recent comment thread, as evidenced by the fact that I just saw this, sorry).
Delete