Cheddar Bay Week 1: Browns +6 @ Chiefs
Folks we are back. The all play for week 1 is Browns +6 @ Chiefs.
Recall that the basic rules of this contest are (1) pick six games total, including the all play (which everyone has to play); (2) you must pick at least one college game, and at least one NFL game; (3) you must designate one pick as your pick of the week, and write a coherent essay of at least 100 words explaining why you are picking your pick of the week — the pick of the week is worth 3 points, and the other picks are worth 1 point; (4) also, you can designate one pick over the season as your "pick of the year," which is worth 6 points (and will also count as your pick of the week for that week). (5) the entry fee is $110, with all proceeds distributed to the winners (1st place 60%, 2nd place 15%, regular season champ 10%, and the remaining 15% distributed evenly to weekly winners beginning in week 11); (6) and the top 10% of the regular season scorers will make the playoffs scored consistently with previous seasons (to be discussed in future posts).
Any other questions about the rules should more or less be addressed here.
And the lines for this week are here for the NFL and here for the college games (use the number under the "current" column for each game).
Which is pretty much it for now other than to note that we have not yet figured out how to reimplement a pick form so we will just be working from the comments section posted here and scoring manually until someone figures out a better way. Figuring that the honour system will work here as it always has, this operation will eventually smooth itself out, and for now the most important thing is for us to get back to picking (or voting, as some describe it).
So best wishes and do let the Exec Comm (which I think for now is Frowns, ChuckKoz, and OXR) know if there are any questions or concerns.
Ahem please put me down for one point on Chiefs -6. The rest to follow.
ReplyDeleteOne point on ND -16.5 over Toledo.
DeleteAlso, my friend "A.R.M." is going to join us this season so put him in for one point on ND as well (he is at the game).
Please put me and A.R.M. in for one vote on Huskies over the Wolverines.
Delete1. Chiefs are the Vote of the Week, essay forthcoming
Delete2.-3. ND -13.5 over Toledo; Wash +7 over Mich (LOSERS!)
And for the rest of my slate I'll have:
4. Steelers +6.5 over Bills
5. Cardinals +3 over Titans
6. Bears +7.5 over Rams
BRB with that essay.
Here's a link to most of my essay: http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2021/09/the-cleveland-browns-americas-team-are-back/
DeleteWhich explains why I think Browns +6 looks too easy. Enjoy the big game folks!
Let's go....
ReplyDeleteAP: Browns +6 @ Chiefs : I won't pick against the Browns. I think this is a competitive game that swings to either a Browns win or Chiefs cover.
1: USC -17.5 v. Stanford
2: Michigan -7 v. Washington
3: TCU -11 v. Cal
4: Texans +3.5 v. Jaguars
Essay: Texas A&M -17 @ Colorado
There's gonna be a murder. In college football, talent wins. According to draft analysts, the Ags have as much or more draftable talent this season as any team in the country including Alabama and Ohio St. Jimbo finally has a team of motivated physical freaks similar to his national title squad at Florida St. We'll see where the ceiling is for this team this year once they get into conference play. To be where this program thinks it is, it will need to beat Alabama and win the SEC west. In the meantime, a low-level PAC-12 squad is just gonna get themselves hurt.
Give me
ReplyDeleteChiefs -6 over Browns
MSU -20.5 over YSU
Rutgers -2.5 over Cuse
Mich -7 over Wash
Jags -3.5 over Texans
49ers -8 over Lions
Will probably essay Michigan, but not for sure yet. I will probably be writing it from Paris-CDG
For the record, I did inform Mr. Pattakos that I would designate Michigan as my essay pick, and that I was using my essay exemption for this week.
DeleteVirgin Picks
ReplyDeleteTenn -3
Football Team +1
Seattle -2.5
KC -6
OSU -14.5
My essay worthy pick of the week is THE Ohio State University to cover against the wounded Oregon Ducks. This is the first time I have ever picked a college football game. I am a notoriously awful gambler. This is probably a bad sign for the Buckeyes. Obviously, I think that home field is going to be huge and will contribute to the smackdown. The receiving core for Ohio State will run wild over Oregon’s defensive backfield, especially with no Oregon pass rush with Kayvon Thibodeaux hurt. Also I can’t trust a transfer from Boston College to keep Oregon close enough to cover. Also if Fresno State can outgain Oregon, can’t imagine what number Buckeyes are going to put up on the (lame) Ducks.
lets go. Ill hop on the cowboys +8.5 tonight.
ReplyDeleteoregon +14.5 at osu
Deletearkansas +6.5 vs texas
ru -2.5 at syra
***bengals +3.5 vs vikes
have not heard boo about the return of the most transcendent college qb of my lifetime returning to action for his hometown team in his hometown stadium. thus, i guess, we have not just a home dog but home dog with a hook! lookit, i wouldnt have let carl lawson leave to pay more for trey hendrickson. honestly dont love replacing geno atkins with larry ogunjobi. i dont know if jonah williams is good enough to draft jamar chase (or even whether WR was a need since tee higgins good) and it hasnt sounded like chase has lit it up in camp. 32 year old reilly reiff has the whiff of borderline panic signing. but i do know that the bengals balled out with less last year. always love mixon. zac taylor seems a bright coach (whose name i had to google). but really this pick is all about belief in burrow. fully expect him to make his mark this year.
cant not pick the brown for all play.
bucs -8.5
ReplyDelete(mike mcCarthy is a donkey)
hometeam
app st + 9.5
Deleteiowa st - 4.5
tcu - 11
bengals + 3.5 (essay to follow)
k.c. - 6
The bengals are a home dog. Say that again in your head. Not Andy Dalton; Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. Ja'marr Chase. The beat on this game is Minnesota's shiny new defense featuring Danielle Hunter. The painful part of the bengal's last season was not the opponent but the cincinnati o-line failure to protect the quarterback. The november injury was the crescendo. There is every reason to believe burrow has the skill to be a top nfl quarterback. The week 1 game is a must watch to see if the bengals have filled their gaps and whether zac taylor can keep it simple and take the win.
Deletebengals + 3
DK - Cleveland Reboot
ReplyDeletePanthers -5.5
Bills -6.5
Seahawks -2.5
Rams -7.5
AP - Chiefs -6
Essay - Texans +3.5
This time of the year, I have to go with narratives over data. So here are a couple threads:
First, we always beat down a team all offseason as the league's worst, then are surprised when they appear competent over the season's first weeks. The Texans are clearly bad, but they feature a lot of veterans and professional pride - enough to keep some games close.
Second, 2021 will be the unraveling of Urban Meyer. He's the coach of an ordinary NFL team and can't recruit world class athletes to overcome this reality. He won't have any schematic advantages and force of will coaches tend to burn out quickly in the NFL. I would be shocked if Meyer lasts more than a season.
Sorry - Please replace: Rams - 7.5 with Florida Atlantic -7
DeleteChuckKoz here….
ReplyDeleteLets start with a long-time gambling Friday tradition….
Boise -25.5
Bills -6.5
DeleteCardinals +3
Broncos -3
Raiders +4.5
AP/essay: Browns +6
It seems entirely reasonable with the Browns revamped front seven, with a healthy Myles, can dominate upfront. Then add in the Chiefs have a new starters at every position on their o line, where Mahomes well it time to extend plays in ways that really no one else does. Sure that can be useful overall but I would think for a new line that might be tough.
OK so let’s say I’m full of it and the chiefs still get into the 30point range, how the hell is there a defense going to do any stopping of this fully loaded Browns offense? It’s true Baker really missed some chances in the playoff game, but it just seems like there’s another level to this talent the season. We have a best offense of line in football and everyone else is healthy. Worst case scenario is 35-30 Chiefs, IMO….. but I’ll take browns 28-21.
Chiefs -6 *essay*
ReplyDeleteWashington +1
Seahawks -2.5
Bears +7.5
Oregon +14.5
Notre Dame -16.5
Essay: Chiefs -6The Browns should look like a different team by season’s end than they will in Week 1 and Chiefs completely rebuilt an offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes. Let’s see how they fair against Joe Woods’ defense, as they are just coming together themselves.
But if the Chiefs are going to go 20-0. They start here. Patty Mahomes rested. And revenge tour starts now. (I don’t think they’ll go 20-0, but 12-5 regular season seems right.
Browns 6
ReplyDeleteToledo 16.5
Raiders 4.5
Cards 3
Seahawks -2.5
Essay: Bills -6.5
With an offensive line comprised of Swiss cheese, Big Ben's bellybutton lint, and the ghost of Tunch Ilkin (RIP), I don't see how Pittsburgh can contain Buffalo's stout DL. Josh Allen and his merry band of WRs will lead to a Bills cakewalk.
Hey hey! Cheddar Bay! We are BACK baby! It's refreshing to see some familiar names here.
ReplyDeleteEagles +3.5 @ Falcons
Dolphins +3.5 @ Patriots, Dolphins Defense keeps this close against the rookie QB
Ohio State -14.5
IOWA +4.5 @ Iowa State. HAWKEYE STATE
All Play: Chiefs -6
Essay: WFT +1 vs LAC
The Herbert hype is real as it rolls into DC to face off against a potent WFT defense. This line smells like public influence banking on Herbert continuing his superstar level performance on the road on the East Coast. People seem to be sleeping on Chase Young and the WFT defense with them being home dogs. I think Riverboat Ron has his team ready to go on the defensive side while Fitzmagic's serviceable QB play will put some points up on the board. I foresee this being a low-ish scoring game with WFT coming out on top 24-21.
Iowa teaches me the same lesson every year - don’t bet against them. It must be a karmic one.
DeleteJAXBCH JOSH PICKS
ReplyDeleteOREGON +14.5
WFT +1
Rams -7.5
HOU TEXANS +3.5
ALL PLAY KC-6
ESSAY: Packer -4 Give me Greenbay in the opener of the Aaron Rodgers revenge F**k Everybody tour...Saints defense is trash Devante Adams might have 4 TDs. Rodgers mught throw 6.
Greenbay 38. SAINTS 23
Adding Rams -7.5 for a biscuit as i think I left 1 game out...
DeleteMike Moondog’s picks (chuck’s degen Cali friend)
ReplyDeletePOTW: Cardinals +3
Picks:
Panthers
Broncos
Raiders
OSU
Chargers
Essay: Cardinals
Cliff Kingsbury seems to be on everyone’s radar as a coach who is on the hot seat. I think that is crazy and just a product of the media singling him out for being cocky or something. Kingsbury played. Huge role in getting rid of Josh Rosen and drafting Kyler Murray. Murray is coming into his 3rd year. He had a disappointing sophomore campaign but only because he had in injured throwing shoulder. He should definitely bounce back, not even considering the fact he has added weapons like AJ Green, and another year to gel with Deandre Hopkins. The defense got stronger too with JJ Watt, who is no way washed up and for the first time isn’t playing for the pathetic Texans.
With that being said, this is my potw because I believe Kyler will be special, Kingsbury will get creative, and I think the titans are going to regress.
Shit. My bad. I just realized I didn’t do the all play.
DeleteI’m removing my Raiders pick.
All play: Browns
thatsfine
ReplyDeleteMiami U +20
Troy +5
UNLV +32
DeleteNo way this line should be more than 31.5. Book it.
Actually, let's cancel this one tonight. I forgot I hadn't picked the all play, so 4 picks tomorrow instead.
DeleteTo be clear, canceling the UNLV pick
DeleteBrowns +6
DeleteLions +8.5
WFT +1
Giants +3 - essay
The Giants finished last year on a 5-3 run after starting 1-7. Now they open the season at home against the Broncos. I don't think the Mountain Time zone is quite as much of a killer for east coast travel as the pacific, but from personal experience I know that flying to Newark once or twice a year is a pain and afterwards I'm off my game for at least 48 hours. Saquon Barkley is going to play at least some. The Broncs are supposed to have a good defense, but I think its going to be close and the Giants are going to surprise as a home dog today.
1. OSU -14.5
ReplyDelete2. Washington +7
3. Washington Football Team +1
4. Jets +5.5
5. All Play: Chiefs -6
6. Essay: Utah -7
The "Holy War" takes place tonight Provo, UT with Utah looking to extend their win streak in this war to 10 (6 of those 9 wins have resulted in Utah covering the spread). While this is Charlie Brewer's first year leading the Utes, he has 4 years of experience having transferred over from Baylor for this season. On the other side there is Jalen Hall leading the Cougars for the first time, replacing last year's star QB and #2 overall pick in NFL draft, Zach Wilson. BYU will have the benefit of home field advantage, but they aren't going to have the benefit of an experienced QB running the offense. BYU also had to replace their offensive coordinator from last year, so they'll be coming into this battle with a new QB and new coordinator combo. Which, may not always be a bad thing... But in this case I'm counting it as a negative, especially in such a rivalry.
The overall talent and returning talent levels strongly favor Utah. BYU only has 4 returning starts on defense. I'm giving the coaching edge to the Utes with the job Kyle Whittingham has done during his tenure there. I'm not giving much weight to the "home field advantage" because these campuses are like an hour apart and Utah has covered 5 straight on the road against BYU. While it may start out as a tight/close game, I see Utah having no problem pulling ahead and winning convincing fashion.
Week 1
ReplyDeleteIllinois +11 vs Virginia
Jags -3.5 vs Texans
Seahawks -2.5 vs Colts
Raiders +5.5 vs Ravens
AP: Browns +6 vs KC
EP: Rams -7.5 vs Bears
No one I talk to is remotely positive on the bears this season, first 6 games on the schedule are hard, and fans seemed resigned to a miserably mediocre or worse type of season. I think J.Fields is going to be good and as long as the bears don't screw him up so they will be on the up soon enough with a promising QB. But in the meantime, it's Dalton and Navy versus Stafford and McVey. That head coach qb combo doesn't seem fair, and then you remember that Chicago has a mess of an offensive line, and I'll take the rams please in a blowout.
Chiefs -6
ReplyDeleteIowa State -4.5
Utah -7
UF -a lot
Oregon +14.5
These are pheasantpants’s picks. I am not going to dick around with fixing display names whilst on my honeymoon
DeleteMy wife (sorry for exercising Wife Guy privilege here) is quite insistent that we spend some of our precious time in St Lucia watching her Buckeyes on Big Noon Saturday and has planned our day around it. I though that this bore mentioning.
DeletePitt Panthers -3
ReplyDeleteIowa St. -4.5
Stanturd +17.5
New Orleans Saints +4.5
AP: Clowns +6
Essay: Washington +7
Full disclosure, I'm a lifelong Michigan supporter although it should be noted that a) I didn't attend the school and b) my enthusiasm has waned for them over the past several years of the clearly mentally infirm head coach and then the subsequent revelations and handling of the ass probing former team physician. As such, I'm usually biased towards them. And, historically, especially during the mentally infirm head coach regime, this has not been a profitable position. To put it succinctly, this Michigan team wasn't supposed to be any good, hasn't been any good, and lost their top WR for the season last week. I know the media/ESPN loves to ramp up the Go Blue hype train but people let's be serious they beat Western fucking Michigan. This has, during the tenure of the mentally infirm head coach, been the type of situation they "look good". Where do they look poorly? Well basically against competent opponents, especially those that push a physical style. Enter Washington, off a ridiculously embarrassing loss to Montana and now in a national prime time spot. A squad with high expectations coming into the year and who also wants to run it and push people around. For god sake, the line last week on this game was a Pk and I though that was wrong too. 7 is a joke. It's possible I'm wrong, and Michigan is good, but until they show me they are not the same old nonsense, this is an auto play for me.
Iowa State -4.5 vs. Iowa
Deletehttps://youtu.be/y-1575pG-kc
Miss. St. +2.5 vs. NC State
https://youtu.be/aFDa0Qv9wXA
Whoops! Sorry Squeeks - I’ll repost under mine 🤦🏼♀️✨
DeleteTennessee +3 over Pittsburgh
ReplyDeleteIowa +4.5 over Iowa State
Chiefs -6 over Browns
DeleteSteelers +6.5 over Bills
Falcons -3.5 over Eagles
ESSAY: WFT +1 over Chargers
People are way too high on the Chargers this season. At best they'll be in the mix to finish second in the AFC West this year and snag the no. 7 seed; at worst they'll be cellar dwellers. Herbert could be in store for a sophomore slump after being crowned by the NFL media all offseason, and the WFT defense is a tough way to start things. WFT won its division last year and upgraded massively at QB, and Chase Young is my pick for DPOY. The Football Team is going to dominate today.
First Kitty Pryde pick of the 2021 Cheddar season:
ReplyDeleteOregon Ducks +14.5 vs. OSU
The first line of a Rams/Bears preview read as follows: “Playing at home with an upgrade at quarterback surely goes a long way toward explaining the Rams as a touchdown favorite.”
DeleteWhat a premise! What a thing to say about a quarterback who has NEVER won a playoff game when comparing him to a man who has one multiple playoff games in far fewer years. The world has been off its rocker for yearssss but reading a sentence like that still makes me want to throw my phone in the Mississippi, adopt a new identity at slinging drinks at a biker bar in Daytona, and truly give up on my dream of contributing in a meaningful way to this dimension of human existence.
With (over 🤦🏼♀️) 80 percent of the bets coming in on the Rams, I know, with some certainty, to fade the public. Seeing if anyone else was floating down the Ram’s river without a canoe has confirmed that this pick of mine will hit. No doubt about it.
The over/under line is more than 45. WHO IS SUPPOSED TO SCORE THESE POINTS. WHO. Is this like when they (“they”) tried to make Macy Gray a thing? - it was not going to happen.
I’m taking the Bears here, all day. Dalton is great as long as it’s not a playoff game. I’ll be shocked if Stafford is still on the field when the game clock runs out. I just hope he gets to walk off the field vs. a cart. Gimme da Bears, da points, and intercepting Stafford a da damn day long.
Bears +7 vs. Rams
All Play: chiefs -6 vs. browns
Deletetried to talk myself into the browns here. i really did. couldn’t convince myself of kev-man having any reason to show them anything before january.
Virginia Tech -20 vs. MTSU
Delete“Military Appreciation Day in Blacksburg Saturday and the 20th anniversary of 9/11. It’s going to be a great day for Hokie football.”
Browns +6
ReplyDeleteGiants +3
Saints +4.5 (Essay)
VA Tech -20
Florida Atlantic -7
Houston -8
Testing… testing… is this thing on? It’s good to be back. I’m nervous about breaking Cheddar Bay Covid protocols - do I have to wear a mask while making my picks, unless I’m sipping bourbon while doing so? (not now since it’s 11:30 in the morning in my time zone of choice).
Week one is always a guessing game. I didn’t follow the off season Aaron Rodgers drama too closely, however that type of nonsense doesn’t bode well for team chemistry. The Saints, even with Brees retired, can put up points and last I checked the Superdome is still a tough place to play on the road. I don’t see those factors justifying a 4.5 point edge for the Packers.
teddycuddles week 1 picks
ReplyDeleteND -16.5
Michgan -7
PHI +3.5
CHI +7.5
AP: Browns +6
Essay: JAX -3.5
Sunshine is dreamy. So dreamy, in fact, he's both my wife's and my hall pass. I called first dibs though. Even with no Cheddar, I still wrote weekly essays and poems about him. And it's for that reason and that reason only that I will never pick against him. He's the anti-Curt Cousins. Vaxxed and I'm sure very waxed...yum. Anyway, enough drooling over here. He comes out initially cautious against a HOU team in shambles, then puts the pedal to the metal and shows the NFL he's ready for the big stage. Although he's on the road, all he and Urban know is how to win, and they both get NFL win #1 with a 7 point win vs. the home team. It's good to be back. SKOL!
Pumped to be back!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAll-Play – Chiefs -6 vs. Browns
1. Tennessee +3
2. Texas A&M -17
3. Buffalo Bills -6.5
4. San Diego Chargers -1
POTW – Utah -7 @ BYU
Essay – BYU had their fun last year with Zach Wilson, blowing out the likes of Temple and North Alabama before losing to the powerhouse Chanticleers. Now that Zach Wilson is gone, with a replacement that hasn’t gotten any work they’re reverting to the mean of a 6-7 win team. A bottom of the barrel Arizona team took them to the wire last week. They’re just not good. Utah on the other hand, took advantage of the transfer portal and a whole bunch of Big 12 and SEC issues. They added a handful of young 4 star prospects from Texas and LSU, in addition to continuing to recruit well in in Cali, Hawaii and Texas. Devin Lloyd should be a darkhorse DPOY candidate in the Pac-12 and our young secondary got loads of live reps in the 2020 covid-campaign. The always struggle bus for the utes is QB, and while we may not have the solution long term, picking up grad transfer Charlie Brewer after his 3 years of starts (and wins) at Baylor. He looked sharp last week, although against the FCS, making al the throws and being shifty in the pocket. His experience and skillset bodes well for a team loaded with talent. Love the touchdown spread, might have taken it at 13.5! Homer pick – go utes.
Navy +6
ReplyDeleteRutgers -2.5
Troy +5
Hooray! Welcome back!
DeleteThanks, Bud! Good luck, everyone!
DeleteAP: Chiefs -6
Rams -7.5
***Packers -4.5
Expectations for GB are at an all-time high this year. Media speculation played with fan emotions, as they do, but finally getting the story from the horse’s (or GOAT’s) mouth put an end to it. There’s still that sense that time is running out in the Rogers era. Green Bay's trend has been a Game 1 W and ATS cover for these guys, I”ll take it. Playing at a neutral site and not in the noisy dome might be a little gift to the OL newbies. Tough act to follow after last year’s group, but they seem to be high on rookie center and Ohio boy Josh Myers. Jameis Winston makes bad decisions. Aaron Rogers does not. Hoping Matt LeFleur has learned from a couple of his own.
I'll open things up with Utah -7 for one.
ReplyDeleteWell I thought the Utah essays were very convincing. Anyway:
DeleteAll-Play Chiefs -6 over Browns
Bengals +3.5 over Vikings
Dolphins +3.5 over Pats
Titans -3 over Cardinals
Essay Packers -4.5 over Saints — It’s a relatively neutral site game in Jacksonville instead of the Superdome, the Saints are without their top two receivers and a chunk of their secondary, and everyone may be sick of the Aaron Rodgers drama but he was still the MVP of the goddamn league last year. Perhaps you really can do it all with Alvin Kamara and a couple of gadget plays. Perhaps the third round rookie the Saints are starting at CB is bound for great things. Perhaps this is the beginning of an epic redemption narrative for Jameis Winston as he distributes the ball equitably among WRs (checks notes) Marquez Callaway, Chris Hogan, and Lil’jordan Humphrey. Or perhaps he coughs it up a couple of times as per usual and the Packers win by a TD+.
Essay UNLV +32
ReplyDeleteUNLV is playing its first game in 39 years with no mascot. “Hey Reb” was retired in January of 2021. The “Rebels” nickname was created in the 1950s when the split from the University of Nevada. At the top of their website it says the “Rebel” nickname reflects the tenacious attitude and relentless spirit of a university and a community that dares to be different. However, when discussing their original mascot, they say “the choice of a Confederate-themed mascot was nonetheless misguided and unfortunate.” The original wolf in a confederate uniform was retired in the 1970s after “a group of African-American student-athletes voiced objection to the Confederate imagery surrounding the mascot,” but the image remained on the floor of a former gymnasium until 2020. “Hey Reb” was only a mustached man with a gun and a big hat, but considering the origins of the school nickname, the school decided to retire it, yet for some weird reason, kept the nickname “Rebels” like people would forget where that came from originally. At least it is a step in the right direction and is good enough for me to pick them for my late-night-game -just-in-time essay this week.
Raiders +4.5
DeleteSaints +4.5
Rams -7.5
Giants +3
Chiefs -6